For a player who caught only 17 passes last season, there's a lot of electricity surrounding San Diego Chargers tight end to speed up the offense this year, and it's also coming from fantasy football owners, who saw his big-play potential in limited bursts last season.
Infusing some more lighting into the Chargers offense bodes well for Green, whose 4.53-second 40-yard dash in 2012 is still the fifth-fastest time for a tight end in the past five years.
With Green's athleticism and ready to return this year after a serious neck injury last season.
Floyd has been plagued with injuries throughout his career, but when he managed to play at least 11 games between 2008 and 2012, he averaged 41.6 receptions on 69.0 targets to go along with 4.2 touchdowns per year. To the detriment of Green's ceiling, Floyd posted monstrous Reception NEP per target numbers in this span, indicating that Floyd was very successful with his targets, turning them into big plays or touchdowns. Of all receivers with at least 30 receptions, Floyd finished inside the top 12 in each season in Reception NEP per target between 2009 and 2012, including a second-place tally in 2011.
This is great news for the Chargers, who are able to roll out a deep group of receiving talent, but it's less good for potential fantasy owners who like the upside in Green.
Green's Fantasy Impact
Green may have all the potential in the world, but limited opportunity can trump potential in the short-term for fantasy purposes. That doesn't seem to worry early drafters, who are counting on Green as a borderline starting option at the tight end position.
He's currently being drafted as the 12th tight end off the board (108th overall), per MyFantasyLeague.com. That's eight spots ahead of Gates, the 20th tight end, and nearly 50 picks overall, as Gates is going off the board at pick 154.
The anticipation is understandable though. Even though Green finished as just the 29th highest-scoring tight end, his per-reception numbers were great.
This chart shows the top-10 fantasy points per reception leaders who were inside the top-30 in tight end scoring this year.
| Player | Receptions | Fantasy Points | Fantasy Points Per Reception |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Fauria | 18 | 61 | 3.39 |
| Ladarius Green | 17 | 53 | 3.12 |
| Vernon Davis | 52 | 156 | 3.00 |
| Jimmy Graham | 86 | 211 | 2.45 |
| Brent Celek | 32 | 75 | 2.34 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 26 | 58 | 2.23 |
| Julius Thomas | 65 | 144 | 2.22 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 25 | 54 | 2.16 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 39 | 80 | 2.05 |
| Zach Miller | 33 | 63 | 1.91 |
Green, like the earlier comparisons of Reception NEP and Target NEP, ranks very high. He obviously benefited from limited receptions, but his ability to put fantasy points on the board is evident when given the chance.
But how big will his chances will be? Wow involved will Green will be in the passing attack? Just how much the speed will increase for the Chargers, whose 1.19 pass-to-run ratio was 26th in the league last year? So, until we get a better indication of the Chargers offensive game plan later on in the off-season, expectations should be tempered for Green.
A larger role in the offense could bring about truly elite numbers for Green, especially if Rivers can continue being a well above-average quarterback. But with Gates still lingering and a sturdy group of receivers and pass-catching backs in San Diego, Green's big break might still be a few years away.