As a rookie coming out of West Virginia, Alshon Jeffery had a Receiving NEP of 30.47 and Target NEP of 5.59 in his rookie season, numbers similar to Austin, before recording 117.41 Receiving NEP and 60.32 Target NEP last year. Clearly those are two different types of receivers, but a rebound is possible after just a single season.

The Schottenheimer Effect

Unfortunately, there are still some obstacles to clear for an improvement next season.

If at first you don’t succeed, try, try, try again. That familiar proverb was made popular by William Edward Hickson sometime in the 1800s. This season, the St. Louis Rams are on that third try with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and quarterback Sam Bradford. The first two tries with that duo could lead even Hickson to advocate for change before the third. However, the Rams stood pat in the offseason, without making a change at quarterback or offensive coordinator. That might not be the best thing for Austin, or any part of the St. Louis offense next season.

In his eight years as an offensive coordinator, Schottenheimer has only had two receivers record over 1,000 yards in a season. Those seasons were in his first two years with the New York Jets, Laveranues Coles in 2006 and Jerricho Cotchery in 2007. Those were also the only two seasons a receiver had a Reception NEP above 80.00, which is what you'd see from a player barely breaking the top 30 at the position. Cotchery’s high yardage in ‘07 wasn’t very efficient though, as he only had a Target NEP of 19.94.

Schottenheimer has been criticized for his vanilla scheme and game planning. The criticisms were justified at points during the season when not only did he struggle with how to effectively use Austin in the offense, he struggled how to include Austin in the offense at all.

Bradford, though, hasn’t fared any better with receivers since coming into the league. There has yet to be a Rams receiver to gain 700 yards or more in season since Bradford’s rookie year. Only two receivers had seasons with a Reception NEP over 50.00: Brandon Gibson had a 71.11 Reception NEP in 2012 and Danny Amendola did it twice with a 50.15 Reception NEP in 2010 and a 52.33 Reception NEP in 2012.

While there are some signs to suggest a talented player like Austin can see an increase in productivity from year one to year two, that might have to be put on hold for at least a year until the Rams can surround him with anyone who can best utilize his skill set.