Some NFL teams are simply full of fantasy goodness. When the perfect mixture of coaching, player talent, and sometimes faulty team defense collide, we as fantasy owners happily reap the rewards. We target the players in the best offensive systems for obvious reasons; chances are, they'll be put into the position to succeed on the field, and in turn, help us succeed in annihilating our friends’ fake football teams. I like to think of it as The Circle of Life - Simba and all that.

The New Orleans Saints, led by head coach Sean Payton, are one of those fantasy-friendly franchises. Aside from 2012 when he was banned for the season in the wake of the Bounty Gate scandal, Payton has lead the New Orleans Saints to the playoffs in five of his first seven seasons, averaging over 10 wins per season during that span.

It’s fair to say that by inheriting one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game in Running with power and purpose in his limited opportunity last season, Robinson appeared to offer a new element to the Saints offense it had been missing.

While watching game film can be beneficial to the trained eye, it is only part of the picture. Looking at Robinson’s Net Expected Points (NEP) metrics, however, tell a different story.

Below is a table showing how Robinson performed last season compared to other running backs with similar usage – in this case, 50-100 carries.

While Robinson ranked eigth in Rushing NEP out of 19 running backs, he was below average in Rush NEP per carry as well as Success Rate (the percentage of carries that positively affect a player’s NEP). On a per carry basis, Robinson was worse than MyFantasyLeague ADP data, he is currently the 35th back being taken in PPR drafts, which to me is still too low. Buy that now if you can.

With Sproles gone, Thomas figures to see the same amounts of targets, if not more this season. He has also been super efficient on the ground, finishing 3rd, 7th, and 22nd in Rushing NEP per carry over the last three seasons among all players with at least 100 carries.

A possible red flag with Thomas, however, is the downward trend associated with his NEP metrics over those past three campaigns.

This isn't to say that Thomas is guaranteed to fall off the cliff in 2014. But as a 29-year-old running back with a steady decline in efficiency over the past three seasons, it’s fair to raise the question. Add in the fact that Thomas has never eclipsed the 150-carry mark in a single season, and it seems like his role has been clearly defined - a pass-catching back who contributes efficiently, albeit somewhat marginally, to the run game.

Thomas isn’t the only Saints running back who has been trending downwards according to our metrics, either.

Mark Ingram's Ongoing Inefficiencies

Ingram has the dubious distinction of being one of the biggest NFL Draft busts (so far) of all-time. After winning the Heisman trophy as a sophomore in 2009, Ingram entered the league with a ton of promise. The Saints, who selected him with the 28th overall pick, figured him to be their future at running back. Now entering the last year of his original contract, without much consistent success to his name, Ingram finds himself needing an impressive showing to guarantee himself a spot on an NFL roster next season.

Not only has Ingram’s play declined in each of the last three seasons, but his efficiency has been markedly worse than Thomas’s during that span. In fact, Ingram has finished 28th, 30th, and 44th in Rushing NEP per carry among the same 75-plus carry grouping. Despite what appeared to be resurgence near the end of the 2013 season, according to our metrics, Ingram is slowly sliding away from relevancy and possibly off of the Saints roster after this season.

All of these factors combined open the door for Robinson, who has been drawing praise from the Saints coaching staff during off-season workouts.

So even though his 2013 season was not overly impressive from a metrics standpoint, if Mark Ingram fails to impress early, and if Pierre Thomas isn’t saddled with a career-high workload, Robinson should have no trouble becoming a large contributor as the between-the tackles banger in the Saints rushing attack in 2014. Add in the fact you can get him in the 12th round of most drafts - behind the San Francisco defense - he’s worth the flier playing in the Saints offense. Remember – The Circle of Life.