It wasn't long ago when fourth-round pick on Welker.

2013: Dropping the Ball and Dipping Production

numberFire analysis generally centers on longer than 10 yards, and every one of them occurred in the red zone.

None of them came in the fourth quarter, and only one of them came while Denver was trailing (a one-yard touchdown in the first quarter when the Titans were leading 7-0). Three came on first downs, four on second downs, two on third downs, and one on a fourth down. Welker was less of a difference-maker who had a nose for the end zone, and more a mere beneficiary of a Denver offense that found itself in ideal situations early and often.

But you shouldn't care when someone scores a touchdown. And Denver will probably have plenty of those situations again this year. And I'm not trying to knock Welker for converting on early downs. He just had the benefit of being in optimal situations near the goal line and had the passes gone elsewhere, his production would have been abysmal.

I'd be more concerned about his unequal production distribution last season (and I am). Welker hauled in eight touchdowns over his first six games last year. In his five games after Denver's Week 9 bye, his production was wildly different than his totals before the week off.

Without the touchdowns, Welker struggled to perform as a fantasy receiver, but his tallies were also down drastically across the board. In fairness to Welker, we can't look solely at this decline and point the finger at him alone. The five-week span between Weeks 10 and 14 included two of Peyton Manning's three lowest yardage outputs on the year, as well as his bottom three games in completion and touchdown tallies. That is to say that Peyton had some really un-Peyton games during Welker's poor stretch.

In fairness to the numbers, though, Manning did throw for at least 397 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2 of those 5 games. No matter how you look at it, Welker was a different player after the bye week than he was before, and he was on pace to fall short of 1,000 receiving yards, a mark 24 receivers reached last year.

What to Do with Welker

There's plenty of reason to believe that Welker can take advantage of Decker's departure, that Emmanuel Sanders won't snare enough touchdowns from Welker, and that Cody Latimer won't take many catches away from Wes' tally. After all, we're projecting just 2.54 touchdowns from Sanders and 31.92 receptions from Latimer.

Welker remains one of the most legitimate threats for double-digit touchdowns among all receivers - especially if Manning leads the league with 40.30 touchdown passes like we project. So with a fourth-round price tag and top-11 type projections, Welker could easily outproduce his draft day price. But whether the 33-year-old receiver will be able to stay on the field and avoid another serious concussion is a big risk - a risk you need to know before investing heavily in a big year from him.