Here at numberFire, we like efficiency. Our Fantasy Football Calculator) who have increased potential due to the opportunities they have in 2014.
DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers
Admit it, you've probably made fun of the Carolina Panthers' receivers at some point this summer. As a Buccaneer fan, I admit that I did quite a few times. But the reality of the offensive situation in Carolina is that the told NFL Network earlier this year that "I went from probably being drafted in the fifth or sixth round to being in the first round, me and Jonathan alike, because we have no receivers." But the reality is that Williams isn't being picked until the 10th round, and Stewart is being selected even later.
The Panthers had the fifth-most run-heavy offense last season, calling 1.07 passing plays to every 1 rushing play. Compared to league average, this means the Panthers ran 60-80 more running plays over the course of the season. That won't change, as the offense is built around the mobility of MyFantasyLeague's ADP, Greene is going as the 58th back off the board, in the 16th round on average.
This is an incredible value for a player who has received plenty of work throughout his career, and delivered with solid production according to our metrics. Greene has always produced well in our Success Rate statistic, which measures how often a player gains positive NEP for his team. Greene has never had incredible overall production, but his consistency has been noteworthy.
In fact, every one three of Greene's five NFL seasons saw him earn a Success Rate that would have finished in the top 12 in the NFL last season among backs with 75 carries or more. This, of course, includes Greene himself, who finished 11th in 2013 among that qualified group.
Yes, Bishop Sankey is the back of the future in Tennessee, and Jackie Battle will compete with Greene for carries. But Greene is the better back with a proven track record, and he should meet his current ADP value with ease. He finished in the mid-50s among backs last year in only 11 games, and his current ADP reflects that output. Without Chris Johnson, and with health (which is the biggest question for Greene at this point), the former Jet should fly past that value and be a very valuable end-of-draft selection. In fact, we have him listed as the 38th-best back.
Devonta Freeman and Jacquizz Rodgers, Atlanta Falcons
Last month, I wrote this article proclaiming the end of Steven Jackson's time as a featured back in the NFL. His career workload has already caught up to him, and there's no reason to believe that a late-career resurgence is going to happen for the worn out former Ram.
So that means opportunity for those on the depth chart behind Jackson, which opens the door for Florida State rookie Devonta Freeman. According to Fantasy Football Calculator's data, Freeman is currently being drafted in the 10th round as the 45th back off the board. Is that the right price for the new Falcon rusher?
It could be if Steven Jackson has to hand over the reigns of the offense to Freeman. Our current projections have Freeman as the 59th-best back in the league for fantasy purposes, but on only 76 carries. These same projections assume 230 carries for Jackson, and 73 for Jacquizz Rodgers. But if Jackson can't handle that big of a workload, and it's likely he can't, both Freeman and Rodgers will benefit.
And even a 50% increase in his projected carries, bringing him to approximately 115, would be enough to bring him up to his current ADP range of the mid-40s.
In other words, the uncertainty about Jackson's future in the NFL already seems to have boosted Freeman's ADP, meaning he's not the value he once was. But it hasn't boosted Rodgers' ADP yet, and that means he is the player to target.
Currently going undrafted in most drafts, Quizz is a little more than a freebie pick at the very end of the board. He, too, will pick up carries in the likely event that Steven Jackson has to take a step back, and his current value doesn't reflect that fact.
Add in his prowess as a receiving back and his veteran advantage over Freeman, and it's pretty easy to see that a clear path to opportunity and a skill set that suits the pass-happy Atlanta offense will help you get more than enough value out of the currently under-drafted Rodgers.