Not that long ago, NFL.com, Jones-Drew was quoted as saying he thought about retirement following last season, but now believes he is in the best shape of his life.

Perhaps I’m a pessimist, but when a 29-year-old running back openly questions his abilities and contemplates retirement in the offseason, I find it difficult to get excited about his prospects moving forward. Even the most ardent optimist among us would have a hard time feeling confident in a big-time resurgence.

In terms of fantasy football, however, even dicey situations can sometimes provide value.

It’s important to mention the offensive line that Jones-Drew ran behind in Jacksonville last season ranked 31st in run blocking according to Football Outsiders. The Raiders offensive line ranked 26th. Offseason acquisitions will change the makeup of the Raiders front-five, but to assume they turn into a dominant unit in just one season is unlikely.

The Raiders were the 11th-most run-heavy team last season, despite five of their 12 losses coming by 14 points or more. The Raiders also finished 13th in numberFire’s Adjusted Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per rush, a measure of how efficient a team is running the ball on a per-attempt basis. Check out our McFadden as a possible kick returner this season, making it apparent that they don’t have very much faith in him being their main ball-carrying option.

The Wildcard

While he may be considered third on the depth chart heading into training camp, the Raiders coaching staff sees Murray as the running back with “the biggest upside.”

Without any actual NFL snaps to analyze, we must use Murray’s college production and workout measurables to forecast his ability at the next level. Although Combine results are not the end-all in player evaluation, Murray’s are nothing short of phenomenal given his size.

If injury were to strike Jones-Drew, McFadden, or both, Murray would be in line for a large opportunity in a Raiders offense that wants to run the football and control the clock.

Fantasy Implications

The Raiders are certainly not the sexiest offense when evaluating fantasy football. New quarterback Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet with current My Fantasy League average draft position (ADP) is a good way of determining which options can provide value on draft day. (Data below reflects full-point PPR leagues.)

Jones-Drew is the best value according to the above table, as we have him ranked 12 spots ahead of his current ADP. McFadden comes in nine spots ahead, while Murray is actually being over-drafted according to our projections.

In reality, having Jones-Drew as your theoretical RB4 in a 12-team league would be acceptable. McFadden seems to be too much of a risk to bank on. But certainly don’t expect either to greatly outperform their ADP, which is what we should be looking for late in our drafts.

numberFire's projections are based on actionable information and don't necessarily place much value on hypotheticals, like the potential injury risks necessary for Murray to see legitimate playing time. But if you’re looking for a late-round running back dart, Murray is it. If things play out in his favor, he could end up returning massive value in comparison to his current price.