If you go to Olive Garden and don't get the unlimited soup, salad and breadsticks, did you really go to Olive Garden?
If we're being honest, it's not like their selection of Italian cuisine is really all that great. Yet they have some of the best breadsticks and soup on the planet, plus some pretty killer salad dressing.
But every once in a while, you may find yourself getting some pasta dish you can't pronounce. And you never wind up happy with your decision, especially while you see your family and friends chowing down on salad. And soup. And breadsticks.
per Spotrac), and for justifiable reasons, but fantasy owners don't see the two players in the same light at all.
In fact, Hartline is currently going undrafted in standard leagues and barely hanging on as a 13th-round pick in PPR ones, according to Fantasy Football Calculator. Welker, on the other hand, is going in the fourth round of PPR drafts.
And while I don't disagree with Welker being ahead of Hartline, the incredible gap in their current value simply isn't justifiable.
The Right Price to Pay
Welker's cost is just fine at the moment. Our Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet reveals that, in a 12-team PPR league with otherwise standard settings, Welker should be the 12th receiver and 28th player off the board. That's actually more optimistic than what we see from average draft position data.
The issue in the valuation of these two players is on the Hartline side, as that same cheat sheet reveals that he should be the 88th player off the board, and the 37th receiver. That means the Miami wideout shouldn't last into the ninth round, and is far too valuable to fall off the board entirely.
Our projections currently have Hartline snagging 65 passes for 893 yards and four touchdowns. Considering that this is right in line (maybe even a bit low) with his previous two years, there's no reason to not expect him to meet or exceed this expectation in 2014.
There's no ridiculous upside to Hartline. He is the fantasy football epitome of "what you see is what you get." But when "what you see" is unlimited soup, salad and breadsticks, "what you get" will never disappoint.
For Hartline, "what you see" is a poor-man's Wes Welker on a worse offense, and "what you get" is consistent receptions and yards at a bargain bin cost.