I’m not one to bash FantasyFootballCalculator.com, while Johnny Manziel is being drafted as the first pick in Round 12.

What’s also fascinating relates back to the point about Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III’s passing numbers. We shouldn’t expect effectiveness from Manziel through the air in Year 1 given the upcoming suspension of Desmond Bryant’s mugshot.

Let’s pretend, for a moment, that Johnny Manziel rushes for 600 yards and 5 touchdowns during this upcoming season, a line I’d assume people would believe as a very reasonable outcome for the rookie. After all, only 20 quarterback seasons in the history of the NFL have ever seen this type of production on the ground.

If we were to also believe that Alex Smith posts another season with 253.22 fantasy points, then this means, in order to match Alex Smith, Johnny Manziel would have to score 163.22 points with his arm.

There are plenty of ways to get to 163.22 points through the air. One way would be to throw for 3,000 yards, 15 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.

In NFL history, nine quarterbacks have thrown for 3,000 yards and 15 touchdowns as a rookie. Of these quarterbacks, eight have thrown at least 10 interceptions.

This is a rather arbitrary, simple exercise, but what I hope it shows is how many things need to go right, according to history, for Johnny Manziel to be a legitimate QB1 this season. Remember, the statistics above aren’t even top-12 quarterback numbers, either. Alex Smith ranked 13th at the position a season ago, meaning Manziel would have to outperform these historic numbers in order to be a weekly starter.

If I’m drafting a fantasy team tomorrow, I’m taking Alex Smith over Johnny Manziel.

Where’s the Correct Cost?

The reason for optimism for Johnny Manziel is certainly warranted. Few quarterbacks enter the NFL with such a great rushing pedigree, and having Manziel shares in fantasy football would make for a fun ride.

But here’s the deal. Johnny Manziel isn’t even the starting quarterback in Cleveland right now, and his average draft position sits at the beginning of Round 12. At that point in the draft, I understand that a fantasy owner is strictly drafting for upside, and because quarterback is so replaceable, throwing a dart at Manziel isn’t a big deal.

If and when he’s named starter? Watch out.

We saw, given history, how difficult it’s going to be for Johnny Manziel to become a high-end QB2 in fantasy football (Alex Smith numbers) in Year 1. If he moves into the 10th round, he’s now being selected as just that. And it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see that happen if Manziel has a solid preseason and is named starter over Brian Hoyer to begin the season.

The thing is, the quarterback landscape in fantasy football is even more competitive in the mid- and late-rounds than it was when Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III were entering the league. The opportunity cost then is not the same as the opportunity cost now.

If Manziel’s cost begins to move to the single-digit rounds, you’re not just betting against the odds given historical rookie quarterback production, but you’re now forgoing locks at the position. You're missing out on players with just as much upside, like Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers.

Manziel is flashy, and he’s going to be entertaining to watch. And I wouldn’t put it past him to exceed my pretty reasonable expectations. But even if he does, it’s going to be difficult for him to be a fantasy football value on draft day.