Predicting which NFL team will make the playoffs looks easy on the surface, but it is more difficult than it seems.
It's like that carnival game Cat Rack, where the goal of the game is to toss three baseballs at a wall of clown puppets. If you knock down three puppets, you get to take home an oversized sloth stuffed animal that will lurk in the corner of your bedroom, gathering dust, for years to come. However, that sloth remains hanging from the rafters of the carnival game because your first toss magically splits the puppets. In frustration, you plop down five more dollars and start flame throwing fastballs as the disinterested carnival employee watches. You knock down the first two puppets and gain confidence. You wind up like Tim Lincecum for your final throw and clank it right off the padded railing, losing another Lincoln.
Among the 12 teams that made the playoffs in 2017, only 5 returned to make the playoffs the following season. While some teams seem like a shoo-in to make or miss the playoffs, there are always surprises. I took a look at the odds over at FanDuel's Sportsbook where you can bet on each NFL team to either make or miss the playoffs. I then calculated the implied odds from each moneyline and compared it to numberFire's projected playoff chances.
| Team Name | FanDuel Odds | Implied Odds | numberFire Odds | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | +680 | 12.8% | 22.3% | 9.48 |
| Denver Broncos | +380 | 20.8% | 30.2% | 9.37 |
| Buffalo Bills | +410 | 19.6% | 28.9% | 9.29 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +174 | 36.5% | 45.7% | 9.20 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +500 | 16.7% | 24.4% | 7.73 |
| New York Giants | +530 | 15.9% | 23.1% | 7.23 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +130 | 43.4% | 49.3% | 5.82 |
| Carolina Panthers | +192 | 34.3% | 39.3% | 5.05 |
| Houston Texans | +146 | 40.7% | 44.6% | 3.95 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +138 | 42.0% | 44.4% | 2.38 |
| Tennessee Titans | +270 | 27.0% | 28.9% | 1.87 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +110 | 47.6% | 49.4% | 1.78 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +104 | 49.0% | 50.8% | 1.78 |
| Detroit Lions | +490 | 17.0% | 18.2% | 1.25 |
| Chicago Bears | -110 | 52.4% | 53.3% | 0.92 |
| Washington Redskins | +450 | 18.2% | 15.5% | -2.68 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +790 | 11.2% | 7.9% | -3.34 |
| Miami Dolphins | +790 | 11.2% | 7.2% | -4.04 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -198 | 66.4% | 62.0% | -4.44 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -172 | 63.2% | 57.7% | -5.54 |
| New York Jets | +300 | 25.0% | 18.6% | -6.40 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +210 | 32.3% | 24.9% | -7.36 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -270 | 73.0% | 65.1% | -7.87 |
| Green Bay Packers | -104 | 51.0% | 42.9% | -8.08 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -280 | 73.7% | 63.4% | -10.28 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +205 | 32.8% | 21.7% | -11.09 |
| New Orleans Saints | -320 | 76.2% | 65.1% | -11.09 |
| Oakland Raiders | +470 | 17.5% | 6.0% | -11.54 |
| New England Patriots | -1150 | 92.0% | 77.8% | -14.20 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -178 | 64.0% | 49.8% | -14.23 |
| Cleveland Browns | -122 | 55.0% | 40.5% | -14.45 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +138 | 42.0% | 21.2% | -20.82 |
Best Bets to Make the Playoffs
The majority of the teams at the top of our list are underdogs. Of these teams, two in particular stand out.
Baltimore Ravens (+174)
The AFC North's offseason talk has been dominated by the Cleveland Browns and their seemingly inevitable return to winning. In addition, the Pittsburgh Steelers were in the headlines for drama with former players Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell. The Baltimore Ravens have flown under the radar. But that's what ravens do. Just like the three-eyed raven Bran Stark, you hang around long enough and then suddenly you are king.
The Ravens moneyline of +174 gives implied odds of 36.5% to make the playoffs, but numberFire gives them a much higher chance of 45.7%. While their offense is going to heavily depend on Lamar Jackson and the running game, their defense should be their strength. numberFire projects the Ravens to have the third best defense in the NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+500)
I'm a sucker for Bruce Arians. He's known as the Quarterback Whisperer after improving the play of a young Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, and a "past his prime" Carson Palmer. If anyone can revive the career of Jameis Winston, it will be Arians.
The Buccaneers moneyline of +500 gives implied odds of 16.7% to make the playoffs but numberFire gives them a higher chance of 24.4%. While the Bucs are projected to have a bottom-five defense, their passing offense is projected to be the tenth best. Last season, the Bucs led the NFL in passing yards, with 5,125. With a passing attack featuring Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard, they still possess high upside.
Best Bets to Miss the Playoffs
Using the same logic as above, I cross-referenced numberFire's odds of missing the playoffs with the current odds over at FanDuel's Sportsbook.
| Team Name | FanDuel Odds | Implied Odds | numberFire Odds | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | -166 | 62.4% | 78.8% | 16.39 |
| New England Patriots | +700 | 12.5% | 22.2% | 9.70 |
| Cleveland Browns | +100 | 50.0% | 59.5% | 9.50 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +142 | 41.3% | 50.2% | 8.88 |
| Oakland Raiders | -700 | 87.5% | 94.0% | 6.50 |
| New Orleans Saints | +245 | 29.0% | 34.9% | 5.91 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -270 | 73.0% | 78.3% | 5.33 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +215 | 31.8% | 36.6% | 4.85 |
| Green Bay Packers | -118 | 54.1% | 57.1% | 2.97 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +210 | 32.2% | 34.9% | 2.64 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -270 | 73.0% | 75.1% | 2.13 |
| New York Jets | -410 | 80.4% | 81.4% | 1.01 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +140 | 41.7% | 42.3% | 0.63 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +160 | 38.5% | 38.0% | -0.46 |
| Miami Dolphins | -1450 | 93.6% | 92.8% | -0.75 |
| Arizona Cardinals | -1300 | 92.9% | 92.1% | -0.76 |
| Washington Redskins | -650 | 86.7% | 84.5% | -2.17 |
| Chicago Bears | -110 | 52.4% | 46.7% | -5.68 |
| Detroit Lions | -700 | 87.5% | 81.8% | -5.70 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -134 | 57.3% | 50.6% | -6.66 |
| Tennessee Titans | -350 | 77.8% | 71.1% | -6.68 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -166 | 62.4% | 55.6% | -6.81 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -128 | 56.1% | 49.2% | -6.94 |
| Houston Texans | -182 | 64.5% | 55.4% | -9.14 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -156 | 60.9% | 50.7% | -10.24 |
| Carolina Panthers | -245 | 71.0% | 60.7% | -10.31 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -700 | 87.5% | 75.6% | -11.90 |
| New York Giants | -800 | 88.9% | 76.9% | -11.99 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -220 | 68.8% | 54.3% | -14.45 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -1200 | 92.3% | 77.7% | -14.61 |
| Buffalo Bills | -600 | 85.7% | 71.1% | -14.61 |
| Denver Broncos | -550 | 84.6% | 69.8% | -14.82 |
Atlanta Falcons (-166)
Unsurprisingly, the chart above is essentially an inverse of teams projected to make the playoffs. Our largest discrepancy lies with the Atlanta Falcons. After making it to the playoffs in 2016 and 2017, the Falcons went 7-9 last year and failed to appear. FanDuel's odds imply that they have a 62.41% chance of missing the playoffs but numberFire is strongly against the Falcons, giving them a 78.8% chance of missing the playoffs.
Our projections rate the Falcons as having the tenth best offense but the thirtieth ranked defense in the NFL, projecting them to tie for the seventh-fewest wins in the league.
Cleveland Browns (+100)
The Browns are the most popular Super Bowl bet of the offseason. I'm surprised my computer even let me type that out. 2003 was the last time that the Browns made the playoffs, and their offense was led by the dynamic duo of Kelly Holcomb and Dennis Northcutt. This surge in popularity has led to the Browns being overvalued.
The betting lines give the Browns only a 50% chance of missing the playoffs, but numberFire gives them a 59.5% chance of missing out. The Browns are in a division with the aforementioned Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have never had a losing season in twelve years under Mike Tomlin. The road to the playoffs will be bumpy for the Browns.