As we inch closer to the official start of the NFL season with training camps less than a week away, all the pontificating and prognosticating we’ve done over the last few months will finally start to have context added to it. This is the time when questions start being answered, and players begin to rise and fall.
Of all the interesting positional battles across the league, one that has largely divided the fantasy football community is the Detroit Lions backfield situation.
The Lions signed Bell to a three-year, $9.3 million deal, making it clear that they see him having a legitimate role in their offensive plans moving forward.
As a result of the Joique love, the aforementioned Reggie Bush is seemingly being lost in the shuffle. Despite missing two games in 2013, Bush finished the season with 1,512 total yards and 7 touchdowns. When he was healthy, Bush showed flashes of his tremendous athleticism and reminded everyone why he was one of the most highly-touted prospects of his generation.
All of that aside, at age 29 and coming off of three-consecutive 200-plus carry seasons, it seems the general consensus is to fade Bush in 2014.
Is it safe to assume that the newly-signed Bell will indeed supplant the incumbent Bush as soon as this season? Or are we setting ourselves up for failure but writing off the uber-talented, former (redacted) Heisman Trophy winner?
Lombardi In, Linehan Out
A crucial piece of the puzzle is the arrival of new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, previously of the New Orleans Saints since 2007. How his offensive system will differ from previous offensive coordinator Scott Linehan's will go a long way in determining how Bell and Bush are deployed.
During Lombardi's tenure in New Orleans as an offensive assistant, no Saints running back ever eclipsed the 200-carry mark. The closest example: Bush and Bell, it would appear that they had relatively similar seasons. And while this may be true on the surface, looking at it from an efficiency standpoint, the end result is just not that simple.
Here at numberFire, we like to use our Net Expected Points (NEP) metrics to analyze how many points were added or lost due to each individual player’s performance, adjusted for down and distance situations. To get a more comprehensive description, click Fantasy Football Calculator average draft position (ADP), Bell is currently being selected as the RB25 in 12-team, PPR mock drafts, while Bush is the RB14.
Bell’s ADP has stayed fairly consistent over the past month, moving up and down only a few spots. Bush’s ADP however, has taken a dive since May.
Initially going in the mid-second round, Bush has now settled into the mid-third. If this trend continues and closes the gap between the two players, Bush’s value will only rise.
Even though Bell was the more efficient option in 2013, all signs are pointing towards a split-backfield in Detroit. If you still want a piece of the action, it would be wise to keep an eye on the ADP gap between Bush and Bell in the next few weeks.
At their current draft positions, Bell currently offers better value. But the difference in ADP between the two continues to shrink, Bush could end up providing the higher return on investment.