In this year's NFL Draft, five teams spent first-round picks on wide receivers. And while route-running and breaks are underdeveloped, and his work ethic has been called into question. He has been working out with Fantasy Football Calculator's current ADP.
Are drafters being overly optimistic about the impact rookie receivers can make? Maybe. Take a look at the fantasy points per game tallied by rookies in the five years between 2009 and 2013.
| Round Drafted | Total Players | > 8.0 FPPG | 6.0-8.0 FPPG | < 6.0 FPPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Round | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 |
| Second Round | 17 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| Third Round | 28 | 2 | 2 | 24 |
| Fourth Round | 24 | 1 | 3 | 20 |
| First Four Rounds | 87 | 8 | 13 | 66 |
To provide context, 8.0 fantasy points per game over a full, 16-game season would result in 128.0 fantasy points. That would have been low-end WR2 numbers in a 12-team league, as it would have been the 25th-highest tally among receivers last year, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com. Scoring at least 6.0 per game would result in 96 points, which would have tied for 45th at receiver - about the lowest you can go in a 12-teamer.
So, 9.2% of receivers drafted in the first four rounds of the NFL draft ended up providing top-24 fantasy receiver marks over the past five years, and 14.9% were able to find themselves in the top 45.
First-rounders, though, fared better, which isn't a surprise. Even still, only 22.2% were able to be used as a WR2 or better in fantasy. Roughly one out of five.
Draft Day Cost
If you had to pick one out of the five first-rounders to be a top-24 receiver, you'd probably pick Watkins, which is understandable, but other drafters feel the same way. Watkins is being drafted late in the seventh round. fantasy football cheat sheet projects Watkins as just the 44th-best receiver this year.
So you can spend a seventh- or eighth-round selection on a very hit-or-miss type of player (based on history), or you can wait until nearly the 12th round and try Benjamin for, basically, free.
Even still, we're cautious to say the least about Benjamin's prospects this year. We're projecting 47.42 catches for 603.07 yards and 2.71 touchdowns, finishing with just 76.61 fantasy points, good for the 59th receiver spot.
But there's a chance that Benjamin emerges as a red zone threat because of Carolina's rushing ability and the dearth of receiving options. He may not catch every ball thrown his way, but at 6'5", 240 pounds, he has a good chance of hauling in a few jump balls for six points since Newton won't have many other places to throw.
With Watkins, you're practically paying for what you're going to get, realistically. With Benjamin, you might end up with a touchdown machine while some other owners start considering drafting Carolina's defense, which is why he could end up being the most surprisingly relevant rookie receiver in 2014.