It's easy to get caught up in the "hipster" takes of the fantasy football offseason. Lots of experts and analysts have been hard at work looking for "sleepers" and "breakouts" in hopes of finding the player that wins their (and your) leagues next season.
But in doing so, players can get inflated values and no longer become a sleeper or an unknown. The collective thought process on a particular fantasy prospect can become so competitive that it drives his average draft spot higher and higher, reaching an unreasonable level compared to the player's reasonable expectations.
This season, there are already three players who are being boosted up draft boards that may require a second look. Just how good are these players? Have we assumed too big of a leap? Are we banking too heavily on a breakout?
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
according to FantasyFootballCalculator.com. This puts him ahead of NFL.com draft profile states that he's a capable pass-catcher, but last season he wasn't used in that role at all in the pass-happy Denver offense.
Our projections like Ball this season, but the assumption that a 120-carry back will leap to the same sort of consistency at 270 carries is quite the risk. Add in questions about his NFL ability as a receiver, and there's more than enough evidence to possibly target DeMarco Murray or Marshawn Lynch at the end of the first round instead, just to avoid the risk of Ball's inexperience and lack of proven production.
Ball, like Hilton and Patterson, may meet or exceed his expectations. This article isn't to dissuade you from taking them in your fantasy drafts altogether. But some perspective is needed as these players continue to climb up draft boards and gain more and more hype without some historical context.