If you have the first pick in a fantasy draft this season, and your turn at the end of the second round comes up after spending a few minutes laughing at your league mates about getting one who compares favorably to Matt Forte, and two who performed better in the same offense as this backfield’s primary back.

This is the reality of the difference between Stacy and Martin in terms of team situation. Without the kind of unchallenged volume that Stacy will see, Martin’s floor becomes much lower, meaning he will have to rely on pass-catching upside for value. Unfortunately for him, the Bucs drafted Charles Sims in 2014’s third round, who is a Forte-esque player that is already projected to sap significant passing-down work from Martin.

Despite Stacy being a slightly less efficient runner (-0.04 rookie Rushing NEP per attempt for him, 0.03 for Martin), the two players had very similar Rushing Success Rates, with Martin only 2.31% higher than Stacy. This means they were making positive contributions at nearly the same rate for their teams in their rookie seasons. The only difference was that Martin added more value per rush, likely partially due to his team’s 19th-ranked offensive line in 2012 per Pro Football Focus.

PFF, however, ranks the St. Louis Rams’ 2013 offensive run blocking 17th in the NFL, and the Rams have added the top offensive lineman in the 2014 NFL Draft in Greg Robinson. The road-grading nature of the Rams should only increase in 2014, thus adding to Stacy’s Rushing NEP per attempt. This will give Stacy a great value floor to work from as he grinds out a lot of sturdy yards in a Jeff Fisher run-first offense.

One more note: comparing their rookie years, Doug Martin had five out of 16 games with more than 100 rushing yards. Zac Stacy’s number? Four in only 14 games as the starter. However, Martin also had four games with fewer than 60 rushing yards; Stacy had only two. Consistency is Stacy’s middle name.

Doug Martin (By Leo Howell)

Unlike Stacy, Martin's rookie season was both a fantasy success and a Net Expected Points success.

In fact, his rookie season was superior to Stacy's in every way according to our data, and ranks 12th among all backs (veteran and rookie alike) with 200 or more carries over the past two seasons.

Last season, Martin's numbers took a step back, but that had more to do with the horrible offense around him and the strong defenses he faced. Our Brandon Gdula Fantasy Football Calculator. This is terrific value, considering that Martin is being selected behind Fantasy Football Calculator. For a bell-cow back projected at around 300 touches this season, that’s an insane value. So what if his game isn’t elite efficiency like other players? Stacy and the Rams win by grinding down opposing defenses and will continue to do so in total volume.

Martin has shown that his slightly smaller stature cannot take the pounding of a 370 touch season, like 2012 was. Stacy, a built 5’9", 225-pound human bulldozer, has proven his reliability over 276 touches both as an NFL and fantasy back. He has less top-five running back potential than Doug Martin, but a far lower chance of falling out of the top 10 or 15.

Volume should not be a scary word. In today’s NFL, where "running back-by-committee" dooms backfields like Tampa Bay’s, a durable and reliable volume back like Zac Stacy is exactly the kind of comfort fantasy owners need to rest easy at night.