NFL
Will Steve Smith's Career Be Prolonged in Baltimore?
Joe Redemann
Jul 24th, 2014
Smith is entering his age 35 year, and is now relegated to a second receiver role. What value does he have?
He was always made for this.
Year | Rec | Rec NEP | Targets | Target NEP | Rec NEP per Target |
2006 | 57 | 41.01 | 78 | 19.70 | 0.53 |
2007* | 65 | 70.88 | 106 | 12.82 | 0.67 |
2008 | 60 | 76.79 | 95 | 42.66 | 0.81 |
2009 | 53 | 50.81 | 70 | 28.28 | 0.73 |
2010* | 51 | 51.28 | 80 | 15.65 | 0.64 |
2011* | 39 | 40.27 | 59 | 20.04 | 0.68 |
2012 | 41 | 45.15 | 68 | 14.96 | 0.66 |
2013 | 52 | 58.05 | 91 | 15.94 | 0.64 |
In spite of the fame of Kubiak’s offense featuring two tight ends in the passing game, the second receiver is actually not too poor of a position, either. Interestingly, too, not much of this success can be chalked up to a second receiver stepping into the oft-injured Andre Johnson's number one role. The seasons where Johnson missed at least one game are marked with an asterisk, and only 2007 was a particularly prolific season for the second option in the wake of his injury.
The fit of Smith’s mid 0.60s Reception NEP per target efficiency with Kubiak’s number two seems pretty on point, but the former Panther will likely see his volume almost cut in half (Smith’s average targets over the past five years: 124; Texans’ number two receiver: 74). Fortunately, the Texans’ number two role has tended to have slightly worse Target NEP numbers than Smith over the past five years of his career, indicating that his natural ability, coupled with a more talented passer in Ravens’ quarterback Joe Flacco, could lead him to be valuable even on fewer opportunities.
Smith’s career has seen him reach some extremely high highs considering expectations and his build, but this season’s move to Baltimore will allow him to function more in his suited role of a secondary option. He no longer has the deep speed to blow the top off of defenses and put together a top five wide receiver season, but working alongside Torrey Smith, he should still be a respectably useful weapon for a rejuvenated Ravens passing attack. Gary Kubiak knows how to maximize the pieces around him, and I do think Smiff has a good chance to increase his efficiency in 2014 even as his natural ability flies off into the sunset.