As you know, we like math here at numberFire. Our algorithms help tell a better story about sports -- they're able to dig through the nonsense, helping us look at things that matter on the court, field or rink.
With football, we love our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which measures the number of points a player adds (or loses) to his team versus what he's expected to add. Rather than counting statistics like yards, touchdowns and receptions, NEP looks at down-and-distance situations and field position and relates these instances to history. When a player outperforms what's happened in the past, he sees a positive expected points value on the play. When he doesn't, his expected points value gained on the play is negative. All of these little instances add up, then, to be a player's Net Expected Points total.
You can read more about NEP in our glossary.
Using a formula that compares individual single-game performance to history, the numberFire Live platform takes this Net Expected Points formula and assigns a rating to a player's performance. Each week, that's what we'll show here -- the 20 best ratings.
Here are Week 1's results:
| Player | Position | Stat Line | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | WR | 9 Rec, 198 Yds, 11 Tgt, 3 TD | 100 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | 19 Rush, 128 Yds, 2 TD 10 Rec, 81 Yds, 11 Tgt | 100 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 25/32, 405 Yds, 4 TD 4 Rush, 12 Yds | 100 |
| DeSean Jackson | WR | 8 Rec, 154 Yds, 10 Tgt, 2 TD | 100 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 17/20, 324 Yds, 5 TD 3 Rush, 6 Yds | 99 |
| Marlon Mack | RB | 25 Rush, 174 Yds, 1 TD | 99 |
| John Ross | WR | 7 Rec, 158 Yds, 12 Tgt, 2 TD | 98 |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | 12 Rush, 58 Yds, 1 TD 6 Rec, 96 Yds, 7 Tgt, 2 TD | 98 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | 8 Rec, 108 Yds, 8 Tgt, 1 TD | 98 |
| Case Keenum | QB | 30/44, 380 Yds, 3 TD | 97 |
| Mark Ingram | RB | 14 Rush, 107 Yds, 2 TD | 97 |
| Carson Wentz | QB | 28/39, 313 Yds, 3 TD 4 Rush, 5 Yds | 96 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | 11 Rush, 120 Yds 4 Rec, 19 Yds, 6 Tgt | 96 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 25/33, 378 Yds, 3 TD 1 Rush, 2 Yds | 96 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | 5 Rec, 125 Yds, 7 Tgt, 1 TD | 96 |
| Marquise Brown | WR | 4 Rec, 147 Yds, 5 Tgt, 2 TD | 95 |
| Michael Gallup | WR | 7 Rec, 158 Yds, 7 Tgt | 95 |
| TJ Hockenson | TE | 6 Rec, 131 Yds, 9 Tgt, 1 TD | 93 |
| DJ Chark | WR | 4 Rec, 146 Yds, 4 Tgt, 1 TD | 93 |
| Tom Brady | QB | 24/36, 341 Yds, 3 TD | 93 |
- Sammy Watkins' huge day came after an early Tyreek Hill injury. Watkins played virtually every snap for the Kansas City Chiefs. He added 18.68 Reception NEP to the Chiefs' total -- or 1.53 points on the scoreboard every time he got targeted.
- Christian McCaffrey totaled 29 touches en route to a perfect 100 of his own the Carolina Panthers' 30-27 loss. In total, he added 4.57 Reception NEP and 8.26 Rushing NEP with elite rushing efficiency on a per-carry basis.
- Dak Prescott went bonkers generating a 31.79 Passing NEP that was bested just once all of last season. Prescott was 3 for 3 for 82 yards and 2 touchdowns on passes traveling at least 16 yards downfield in a standout win for the Dallas Cowboys.
- DeSean Jackson rounded out the four perfect scores. Jackson turned 2 deep targets into 104 yards and a pair of touchdowns against his former team, but he also added 50 yards on shorter passes while playing 69.3% of the Philadelphia Eagles' snaps in Week 1.
- Lamar Jackson didn't get a perfect 100 because the Baltimore Ravens put the game away early, but Jackson tossed 5 touchdown passes and ran only 3 times while accruing 29.54 Passing NEP and churning out 155 yards and 2 scores on deep throws.