NFL
Zach Ertz Should Be on Your Fantasy Football Radar
In limited action last season, Zach Ertz put up historical numbers for a rookie tight end, priming him for a coming out party in 2014.

Birds 24/7, Ertz played 45 percent of the snaps during the second half of the regular season, compared to only 36 percent in the first eight games. Also, 22 of his 36 catches came in the second half of the year, as did his five scores.

Just how good was Ertz in those final eight games? Let’s investigate.

Ertz’s Second Half

Ertz finished with a Reception NEP of 36.73 for the entire season. His Reception NEP in his final eight games totaled 25.69, which accounted for about 70 percent of his production. That's astounding, really - almost three-quarters of his production came in half of the NFL season.

If we extrapolate his Reception NEP in the final eight games to a full 16-game season, Ertz would rank fourth amongst tight ends that saw a similar volume of opportunities. Those numbers don’t even include his three catches and a touchdown in the Eagles’ playoff game.

Again, that’s pretty amazing for a rookie tight end. However, let’s take this one step further and analyze how Ertz’s first year in the NFL compared to other top tight ends in their rookie season.

Ertz Versus Historical Rookie Tight Ends

Jimmy Kempski of Philly.com wrote an awesome article illustrating how Ertz had the second-best statistical rookie season for a tight end compared to the rookie years of the top 15 tight ends from 2013 (in terms of total receiving yardage).

For comparison, I decided to analyze how numberFire’s metrics viewed Ertz’s rookie season using the same criteria. Below is a list of the top-15 tight ends in Reception NEP in 2013. This chart illustrates their Reception NEP in their rookie seasons, in order from highest to lowest:

PlayerReception NEP
Tim Wright56.88
Rob Gronkowski56.71
Jordan Reed55.85
Zach Ertz36.73
Jimmy Graham36.46
Greg Olsen32.39
Jason Witten32.19
Antonio Gates30.72
Martellus Bennett27.35
Charles Clay19.42
Vernon Davis17.97
Delanie Walker1.23
Jordan Cameron0.78
Scott Chandler0.58
Julius Thomas0.17

As you can see, Ertz finished fourth on a list that consists of many decorated players that have been among the best at their position for a number of years.

Note: Philadelphia Inquirer.

Again, put Ertz on the field and he’s going to put up numbers. He demonstrated that by posting historical statistics his rookie year, and his potential is through the roof for his sophomore season.

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