As you know, we like math here at numberFire. Our algorithms help tell a better story about sports -- they're able to dig through the nonsense, helping us look at things that matter on the court, field or rink.
With football, we love our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which measures the number of points a player adds (or loses) to his team versus what he's expected to add. Rather than counting statistics like yards, touchdowns and receptions, NEP looks at down-and-distance situations and field position and relates these instances to history. When a player outperforms what's happened in the past, he sees a positive expected points value on the play. When he doesn't, his expected points value gained on the play is negative. All of these little instances add up, then, to be a player's Net Expected Points total.
You can read more about NEP in our glossary.
Using a formula that compares individual single-game performance to history, the numberFire Live platform takes this Net Expected Points formula and assigns a rating to a player's performance. Each week, that's what we'll show here -- the 20 best ratings.
Here are Week 2's results:
| Player | Position | Passing NEP | Rushing NEP | Reception NEP | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | RB | — | 4.06 | 6.77 | 99 |
| Dalvin Cook | RB | — | 8.27 | 1.76 | 99 |
| Demarcus Robinson | WR | — | — | 15.06 | 99 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 26.76 | — | — | 98 |
| Nelson Agholor | WR | — | — | 14.62 | 98 |
| Julio Jones | WR | — | — | 13.75 | 97 |
| Matt Breida | RB | — | 6.40 | 0.67 | 94 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | — | — | 11.90 | 93 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | 18.33 | 0.95 | — | 92 |
| Tom Brady | QB | 17.65 | 0.75 | — | 92 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | — | 4.31 | 1.92 | 91 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 13.93 | 3.90 | — | 91 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | — | — | 11.26 | 90 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | — | — | 10.86 | 88 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | — | — | 10.82 | 88 |
| Russell Wilson | QB | 15.91 | -4 | — | 87 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | — | 5.08 | 0.21 | 87 |
| Kenny Golladay | WR | — | — | 10.35 | 86 |
| Davante Adams | WR | — | — | 10.25 | 85 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 9.55 | 6.01 | — | 84 |
- San Francisco 49ers running backs Raheem Mostert and Matt Breida each make an appearance in the top-10 list, as does quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo at number nine. Mostert turned 13 carries into 83 rushing yards and 3 catches into 68 yards and a touchdown to help the 49ers get out to a 2-0 season start. Breida accounted for 121 rushing yards on 12 carries, good for a 75.0% Rushing Success Rate.
- Dalvin Cook's Minnesota Vikings couldn't earn a win over the Green Bay Packers, but Cook did his part: 191 total yards and a touchdown on 23 touches. Cook has generated 0.33 Rushing NEP per carry this season. The league average mark for running backs is generally around 0.00. He's off to an insane start to 2019.
- Demarcus Robinson filled in admirably for the Kansas City Chiefs, turning 6 targets into 6 catches for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns. On passes traveling 16-plus yards downfield, Robinson caught all four of his targets for 154 yards and both touchdowns. Pat Mahomes totaled 443 yards and 4 touchdowns. He threw deep 17 times for 289 yards and all 4 touchdowns.
- Nelson Agholor stepped up after Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson played a combined 17 snaps. Agholor saw 11 targets on Sunday night, catching 8 for 107 yards and a touchdown. He dropped a could-have-been touchdown with 1:58 left in the game (sinking the Philadelphia Eagles' win probability to 21.5%) but still accounted for one of the best performances of Week 2.