On fantasy football draft day, your goal is to find value. You need players who far outperform their average draft positions - guys who you pay little for, but end up producing like starters.
But sometimes it's not just about discovering individual players who will perform well versus their cost. Rather, it's to recognize NFLers who are overvalued, making it easier to find and select valuable assets in your draft.
The list below, created by numberFire football writers, should help weed out some of the goofy costs in fantasy football this year. We can't say we didn't warn you.
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
By drafting him in Round 5? No thanks. I'll leave the weekly up-and-down, roller coaster wide receiving headache for another team in my league.
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
By as reports out of Jets camp indicate that Ivory and Powell will likely handle goal line duties. Chris Johnson currently has an average draft position of 53, and is being drafted ahead of guys who are likely to see the bulk of their team's carries. It shouldn't surprise anyone to see Chris Ivory, who's currently going almost 90 picks later than Johnson, end up as the lead back in New York. I wouldn’t touch Chris Johnson unless his ADP tumbled another 30 slots, despite FantasyFootballCalculator.com) are a full 10 and 11 picks later than Manning's (9.1), it's hard to justify reaching for the Sheriff.
Of course, this is all ignoring the fact that drafting a quarterback early in general is a counterproductive strategy. To get Peyton Manning, you're probably going to have to draft him well before the second round is over in normal leagues, which means passing up on drafting top wide receiver or running back talent.
I could continue on by talking about the way Denver's offense will change after losing Eric Decker, or about how much longer the 38-year-old can possibly keep this up, but to be honest, I don't really anticipate that either issue will bug Manning much. It's the architecture of fantasy football itself that's going to keep Peyton Manning from justifying his inevitably too-high draft position.
Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers
Vernon Davis put up 850 yards and 13 scores last year. While that seem nice on the surface, it will be very difficult to repeat.
The best game of the season for Davis came in Week 6 against the Arizona Cardinals, where he hauled in 180 yards and a pair of touchdowns, a game that 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree was injured for. This accounted for 21% of Davis’ yardage for the whole season. He would not go on to see another multi-touchdown game, catch more than five passes, or record more than 100 yards after this contest. In fact, Davis went on to post two duds against the Panthers and Falcons when he totaled one combined catch for two yards.
With Crabtree in the lineup last year, Davis' per game receptions dropped by one, his targets by one-and-a-half and his yards by 17.
Anquan Boldin is somehow still producing, Crabtree is healthy, and the 49ers traded for wideout Steve Johnson over the off-season. Suddenly there are more options for Colin Kaepernick in that offense.
All signs are pointing to his production taking a hit across the board this year.
Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins
By Keith Black
Last year, Lamar Miller was the 21st back off the board (a starter in a 12-team league), going near the end of the third round. Miller’s 2013 proceeded to look like a total train wreck. Having a touch in every single game, Miller produced a meager two touchdowns all year (both before Week 5), and a grand total of four double-digit fantasy performances – Weeks 2 (12 points), 4 (12 points), 8 (10 points), and 9 (10 points).
Miller followed up his “breakout†Weeks 8 and 9 with the following fantasy point totals: 0, 3, 3, 8, 3, 6, 0. Amongst ball carriers with at least 160 carries last year (10 carries per game for 16 games), Miller ranked fourth from the bottom in Rushing NEP – ahead of Rashard Mendenhall, Trent Richardson, and Ray Rice. All three of those guys at least contributed in the passing game more than Miller did as well, as each of them had a higher Reception NEP total than Miller. (And in the case of Richardson, his Reception NEP was nearly 20 times higher than Miller’s.)
Yet, there’s discussion that this year will be different with new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. While Miller may get a unique opportunity, he's still shown us nothing thus far in his career, and his seventh-round ADP is far too costly.