Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Table Terms
Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. For tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.
Quarterback
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % | Boom/Bust Ratio | 30+ FDP % | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | $8,400 | 22.8 | 36.8% | 1.55 | 16.9% | 28.0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $9,200 | 22.5 | 25.6% | 0.88 | 16.2% | 27.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | $8,500 | 21.9 | 32.9% | 1.35 | 17.4% | 27.4 |
| Jameis Winston | $7,300 | 20.2 | 43.0% | 2.10 | 10.6% | 25.8 |
| Deshaun Watson | $8,200 | 19.9 | 27.9% | 0.90 | 9.8% | 25.2 |
| Josh Allen | $7,500 | 19.7 | 38.6% | 1.41 | 8.1% | 25.3 |
| Tom Brady | $7,800 | 19.6 | 29.2% | 0.93 | 8.2% | 24.5 |
| Carson Wentz | $7,700 | 19.4 | 30.3% | 0.99 | 7.9% | 24.4 |
| Russell Wilson | $7,600 | 19.0 | 29.6% | 0.92 | 9.2% | 24.1 |
| Kyler Murray | $7,200 | 19.0 | 38.1% | 1.45 | 5.9% | 24.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $7,900 | 18.9 | 25.3% | 0.74 | 8.0% | 23.7 |
| Matt Ryan | $7,800 | 18.9 | 28.4% | 0.89 | 7.6% | 24.2 |
| Philip Rivers | $7,500 | 18.6 | 28.8% | 0.90 | 6.0% | 23.5 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,200 | 17.9 | 31.8% | 1.00 | 6.7% | 23.1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $6,800 | 17.9 | 36.9% | 1.31 | 5.8% | 23.1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $7,200 | 17.6 | 29.4% | 0.85 | 5.7% | 22.8 |
| Matthew Stafford | $6,900 | 16.6 | 31.2% | 0.87 | 3.6% | 22.4 |
| Daniel Jones | $6,000 | 16.2 | 40.4% | 1.41 | 3.5% | 21.5 |
| Mason Rudolph | $6,600 | 15.7 | 31.0% | 0.84 | 2.8% | 21.1 |
| Andy Dalton | $7,100 | 14.9 | 17.9% | 0.39 | 2.0% | 19.5 |
| Kyle Allen | $6,000 | 14.2 | 29.6% | 0.81 | 1.0% | 18.7 |
| Derek Carr | $6,700 | 14.0 | 22.0% | 0.47 | 1.1% | 19.3 |
Cash-Game Standouts
- The top-four passer in terms of 3x value games are Jameis Winston (43.0%), Daniel Jones (40.4%), Josh Allen (38.6%), and Kyler Murray (38.1%). I don't think I'll be considering any of the minimum-salary passers this week, but Winston, Allen, and Murray are on my short list for cash-game options. If spending up, it'll likely be Dak Prescott (36.8%) or Lamar Jackson (32.9%).
High-Floor, High-Ceiling Plays
- Measured by boom/bust ratio, Winston (2.10 games of 3x value for every game shy of 1.5x) really stands out against such a terrible New York Giants team, which ranks 31st in adjusted pass defense, based on numberFire's metrics. Prescott (1.55), Murray (1.45), Allen (1.41), Jones (1.41), Jackson (1.35), and Jacoby Brissett (1.31) also grade out well.
Tournament Standouts
- The top 75th-percentile outcomes belong to pricier options, starting with Prescott (28.0), followed closely by Patrick Mahomes (27.7) and Lamar Jackson. The 75th-percentile marks above 20 among passers below $7,000 belong to Brissett (23.1), Matthew Stafford ($22.4), Daniel Jones (21.5), and Mason Rudolph (21.1).
Bust Candidates
- Despite the minimum salary for Luke Falk (40.4%) and Josh Rosen (37.0%), they each appear with the highest likelihood of falling below 1.5x value this week as massive underdogs. Teddy Bridgewater (35.7%), Derek Carr (28.9%), Joe Flacco (28.4%), and Andy Dalton (27.9%) also busted at least a quarter of the time.
Running Back
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value | Boom/Bust Ratio | 20+ FDP | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | $8,800 | 22.1 | 61.8% | 0.93 | 55.2% | 30.1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | $8,900 | 22.0 | 62.6% | 0.93 | 54.9% | 30.2 |
| Saquon Barkley | $9,200 | 18.9 | 55.4% | 0.53 | 48.9% | 27.3 |
| Austin Ekeler | $7,600 | 18.5 | 65.7% | 1.03 | 47.9% | 26.3 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,300 | 18.4 | 53.2% | 0.55 | 41.3% | 25.2 |
| Alvin Kamara | $8,000 | 17.0 | 56.6% | 0.70 | 43.0% | 25.5 |
| David Johnson | $7,000 | 17.0 | 63.0% | 0.97 | 38.8% | 24.2 |
| Le'Veon Bell | $7,700 | 15.5 | 47.8% | 0.42 | 31.6% | 22.1 |
| Chris Carson | $7,000 | 15.3 | 55.2% | 0.58 | 30.2% | 21.4 |
| Aaron Jones | $6,900 | 14.4 | 53.4% | 0.51 | 25.9% | 20.5 |
| James Conner | $7,400 | 13.0 | 45.0% | 0.33 | 23.9% | 19.8 |
| Marlon Mack | $7,000 | 12.9 | 45.7% | 0.34 | 20.9% | 18.6 |
| Sony Michel | $6,800 | 12.7 | 46.6% | 0.32 | 18.1% | 18.2 |
| Josh Jacobs | $6,500 | 12.0 | 44.2% | 0.31 | 15.8% | 17.2 |
| Kerryon Johnson | $6,600 | 12.0 | 42.4% | 0.26 | 14.7% | 17.1 |
| Joe Mixon | $6,500 | 11.9 | 44.1% | 0.35 | 18.6% | 17.6 |
| Phillip Lindsay | $6,400 | 11.6 | 44.4% | 0.29 | 13.6% | 16.6 |
| Peyton Barber | $6,100 | 11.1 | 44.9% | 0.32 | 13.6% | 16.5 |
| Mark Ingram II | $7,100 | 11.1 | 35.1% | 0.13 | 12.1% | 16.2 |
| Damien Williams | $6,400 | 11.1 | 38.8% | 0.16 | 8.4% | 15.6 |
| Devonta Freeman | $6,200 | 11.1 | 43.2% | 0.30 | 13.6% | 16.2 |
| Matt Breida | $5,900 | 10.4 | 41.4% | 0.22 | 6.4% | 14.7 |
| Frank Gore | $5,700 | 10.2 | 45.4% | 0.31 | 8.5% | 15.4 |
| James White | $6,200 | 9.7 | 33.0% | 0.20 | 10.0% | 14.5 |
| Miles Sanders | $5,400 | 9.5 | 42.9% | 0.33 | 7.1% | 14.7 |
| Duke Johnson | $5,400 | 9.4 | 43.0% | 0.30 | 8.1% | 14.3 |
| Royce Freeman | $5,900 | 9.2 | 37.0% | 0.19 | 6.2% | 13.9 |
| LeSean McCoy | $5,500 | 9.1 | 43.5% | 0.26 | 6.0% | 13.9 |
| Kenyan Drake | $5,300 | 9.0 | 41.9% | 0.31 | 8.0% | 14.3 |
| Devin Singletary | $5,800 | 8.4 | 29.6% | 0.09 | 2.2% | 12.6 |
| Carlos Hyde | $6,000 | 8.4 | 26.1% | 0.08 | 2.3% | 12.1 |
| Rex Burkhead | $4,600 | 8.3 | 43.9% | 0.39 | 4.4% | 13.2 |
| Raheem Mostert | $6,000 | 8.2 | 26.1% | 0.08 | 2.9% | 12.3 |
Cash-Game Standouts
- The 8 of the 9 running backs who returned at least 2x value in half of the simulated weeks -- Austin Ekeler, David Johnson, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Chris Carson, Aaron Jones, and Dalvin Cook -- are at least $7,000 on FanDuel. Jones is $6,900. It's a week to spend up for running backs in cash games.
High-Floor, High-Ceiling Plays
- The same nine backs had at least 0.5 games of 3x value for every game shy of 2x value, reiterating that the floor/ceiling combos come from spending up.
Tournament Standouts
- Despite playing with a backup passer, McCaffrey has the highest 75th-percentile outcome of the week (30.2). Elliott (30.1) is the only other back above Barkley's 27.3. The volume should be there for McCaffrey in an uptempo game against Arizona.
Bust Candidates
- Among 34 backs projected for a median outcome of 7.0 FanDuel points, the least likely to return 1.5x value are Carlos Hyde (55.0%), Justin Jackson (53.2%), Raheem Mostert (53.1%, and James White (50.6%). The primary bust candidates among backs priced at least $7,000 include Mark Ingram (47.8%), James Conner (39.2%), Marlon Mack (36.4%), and Le'Veon Bell (35.3%), all of whom -- excluding Mack -- are road underdogs.
Wide Receiver
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value | Boom/Bust Ratio | 15+ FDP | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | $7,800 | 16.8 | 57.5% | 0.83 | 58.4% | 23.4 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $8,900 | 16.1 | 43.9% | 0.35 | 54.4% | 22.6 |
| Julio Jones | $8,300 | 15.9 | 47.5% | 0.61 | 53.9% | 23.4 |
| Davante Adams | $8,200 | 15.7 | 46.8% | 0.53 | 53.0% | 22.7 |
| Amari Cooper | $7,700 | 14.9 | 50.0% | 0.57 | 51.2% | 22.1 |
| Michael Thomas | $8,000 | 14.4 | 45.8% | 0.50 | 49.8% | 22.2 |
| Sammy Watkins | $7,100 | 14.1 | 49.1% | 0.65 | 46.0% | 21.1 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,600 | 13.7 | 44.3% | 0.46 | 45.0% | 20.8 |
| Adam Thielen | $7,000 | 13.7 | 49.7% | 0.67 | 45.3% | 20.7 |
| Mike Evans | $7,100 | 13.5 | 48.5% | 0.59 | 46.4% | 20.5 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $7,500 | 13.3 | 43.5% | 0.44 | 43.5% | 20.6 |
| T.Y. Hilton | $7,400 | 13.0 | 45.2% | 0.42 | 44.6% | 19.8 |
| Kenny Golladay | $7,000 | 12.8 | 46.5% | 0.51 | 42.1% | 19.2 |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,600 | 12.5 | 47.8% | 0.57 | 40.7% | 18.8 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | $5,900 | 12.2 | 50.7% | 0.75 | 38.4% | 18.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | $6,700 | 12.2 | 43.0% | 0.43 | 36.5% | 17.9 |
| Julian Edelman | $6,900 | 12.0 | 39.9% | 0.34 | 34.4% | 17.3 |
| DJ Moore | $6,500 | 11.5 | 43.5% | 0.44 | 34.2% | 17.3 |
| Tyler Boyd | $6,600 | 11.5 | 44.3% | 0.45 | 36.4% | 17.9 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $5,700 | 11.3 | 47.9% | 0.63 | 32.6% | 16.7 |
| Marquise Brown | $6,100 | 11.3 | 46.7% | 0.55 | 34.9% | 17.3 |
| Christian Kirk | $5,900 | 11.1 | 47.9% | 0.61 | 34.9% | 17.6 |
| John Brown | $5,900 | 11.1 | 45.9% | 0.45 | 30.4% | 16.3 |
| Calvin Ridley | $6,500 | 10.9 | 38.7% | 0.34 | 30.3% | 16.5 |
| Tyrell Williams | $6,200 | 10.7 | 40.7% | 0.35 | 29.9% | 16.3 |
| Nelson Agholor | $4,800 | 10.5 | 53.5% | 0.98 | 31.3% | 16.3 |
| Will Fuller V | $6,000 | 9.8 | 38.5% | 0.34 | 26.0% | 15.2 |
| Sterling Shepard | $6,000 | 9.8 | 34.7% | 0.17 | 16.8% | 13.5 |
| Mike Williams | $6,100 | 9.8 | 37.4% | 0.31 | 24.1% | 14.9 |
| Curtis Samuel | $5,800 | 9.8 | 41.8% | 0.36 | 24.2% | 14.8 |
| Josh Gordon | $6,000 | 9.6 | 34.3% | 0.20 | 21.7% | 14.1 |
| Jamison Crowder | $6,200 | 9.6 | 37.3% | 0.30 | 25.8% | 15.2 |
| Randall Cobb | $5,300 | 9.6 | 48.1% | 0.53 | 25.0% | 15.0 |
| DK Metcalf | $6,200 | 9.6 | 34.2% | 0.22 | 22.5% | 14.5 |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | $5,400 | 9.5 | 42.5% | 0.42 | 22.1% | 14.3 |
| John Ross III | $6,700 | 9.4 | 29.6% | 0.12 | 22.3% | 14.5 |
| Alshon Jeffery | $6,700 | 9.0 | 21.0% | 0.03 | 13.9% | 12.6 |
| Courtland Sutton | $5,600 | 8.9 | 39.0% | 0.31 | 19.5% | 13.8 |
| Robby Anderson | $5,700 | 8.8 | 34.0% | 0.25 | 19.7% | 13.4 |
| Demarcus Robinson | $6,700 | 8.4 | 23.4% | 0.08 | 17.7% | 13.0 |
| Marquez Valdes- Scantling | $5,300 | 8.3 | 36.4% | 0.24 | 14.4% | 12.8 |
| Cole Beasley | $5,100 | 8.3 | 40.9% | 0.34 | 16.6% | 13.1 |
| Deebo Samuel | $5,500 | 8.2 | 33.9% | 0.19 | 14.4% | 12.5 |
| Mecole Hardman | $6,300 | 8.2 | 25.9% | 0.10 | 17.1% | 12.8 |
| Mohamed Sanu | $5,300 | 7.6 | 34.6% | 0.25 | 16.5% | 12.8 |
| Preston Williams | $5,100 | 7.4 | 33.6% | 0.24 | 12.8% | 11.8 |
| Danny Amendola | $4,900 | 7.2 | 34.0% | 0.23 | 10.0% | 11.4 |
| DeVante Parker | $4,800 | 7.1 | 34.3% | 0.27 | 12.8% | 11.7 |
Cash-Game Standouts
- Four wideouts hit 2x value in at least half of the sims: Keenan Allen (57.5%), Nelson Agholor (53.5%), Larry Fitzgerald (50.7%), and Amari Cooper (50.0%) with Adam Thielen (49.7%), Sammy Watkins (49.1%), Mike Evans (48.5%), and Randall Cobb (48.1%) closest behind. Agholor ($4,800), Fitzgerald ($5,900), and Cobb ($5,300) offer salary relief.
High-Floor, High-Ceiling Plays
- Agholor (0.98) stands out in boom/bust rate, hitting 2x value nearly as often as he falls shy of 1.5x. Volatility at receiver limits safety even when spending up, but Allen (0.83), Thielen (0.67), Watkins (0.65), Julio Jones (0.61), and Mike Evans (0.59) project as high floor/ceiling options this week. It's worth noting that Fitzgerald (0.75) ranks third, and Emmanuel Sanders (0.63) is sixth at just $5,700.
Tournament Standouts
- The top scores in the 75th-percentile mark all belong to the pricey options. The best high-outcome game for a wideout below $7,000 is Tyler Lockett ($6,600) at 12.5. Lockett joins the $7,000-plus receivers in terms of 20-point games at 20.0%. The highest rates of 20-plus-point games come from Keenan Allen (37.7%), Julio Jones (35.6%), DeAndre Hopkins (35.0%), Davante Adams (33.3%), Michael Thomas (32.1%), and Amari Cooper (31.4%).
Among cheaper plays, Adam Thielen (27.1%), Kenny Golladay (22.6%), Tyler Lockett (20.0%), Larry Fitzgerald (19.4%), Stefon Diggs (18.6%), Tyler Boyd (18.0%), Christian Kirk (17.2%), D.J. Moore (17.2%), and Marquise Brown (16.3%) pop. I'll have Moore in game stacks, and I think that I'll pretend that Brown's projection is even higher in his matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Bust Candidates
- Among 37 wideouts with a median projection of at least 7.0 FanDuel points, both Demarcus Robinson ($6,700) and Mecole Hardman ($6,300) appear as likely bust candidates, failing to hit 1.5x value in about 60% of their games due entirely to their price hike. Their raw projections are fine, but the price makes them more of game-stack-only plays. I'll also point out John Ross ($6,700), who does face a Buffalo Bills defense that limits deep-ball production.
Tight End
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value | Boom/Bust Ratio | 15+ FDP | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $8,000 | 15.28 | 44.4% | 1.09 | 48.2% | 21.9 |
| Zach Ertz | $6,900 | 13.79 | 50.0% | 1.42 | 44.0% | 19.7 |
| George Kittle | $6,600 | 12.84 | 46.0% | 1.19 | 38.7% | 18.4 |
| Mark Andrews | $6,800 | 11.64 | 38.8% | 0.85 | 34.0% | 17.2 |
| Evan Engram | $6,400 | 11.39 | 45.2% | 1.11 | 34.6% | 17.7 |
| Darren Waller | $5,900 | 9.47 | 37.8% | 0.83 | 23.5% | 14.6 |
| Greg Olsen | $6,100 | 8.64 | 31.4% | 0.60 | 17.1% | 13.5 |
| Austin Hooper | $5,800 | 7.94 | 30.7% | 0.56 | 15.7% | 12.7 |
| Vance McDonald | $5,900 | 7.78 | 27.7% | 0.51 | 14.6% | 12.6 |
| O.J. Howard | $5,800 | 7.75 | 24.0% | 0.43 | 9.9% | 11.4 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $5,500 | 7.52 | 28.1% | 0.50 | 11.6% | 11.6 |
| Jason Witten | $5,000 | 7.02 | 35.6% | 0.70 | 13.4% | 12.0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | $4,800 | 6.82 | 31.9% | 0.59 | 8.9% | 10.6 |
| Jared Cook | $5,800 | 6.75 | 22.7% | 0.36 | 9.9% | 11.1 |
| Eric Ebron | $5,700 | 6.26 | 20.2% | 0.31 | 8.4% | 10.2 |
| Will Dissly | $5,400 | 6.00 | 20.6% | 0.32 | 5.6% | 10.1 |
| Jimmy Graham | $4,900 | 5.92 | 26.4% | 0.44 | 7.7% | 10.1 |
| Tyler Eifert | $4,900 | 5.72 | 26.4% | 0.44 | 6.5% | 10.1 |
| Jack Doyle | $5,200 | 5.62 | 19.8% | 0.30 | 5.2% | 9.3 |
| Noah Fant | $4,600 | 5.24 | 22.2% | 0.36 | 3.2% | 8.8 |
Cash-Game Standouts
- There's a big four in 2x value: Zach Ertz (50.0%), George Kittle (46.0%), Evan Engram (45.2%), and Travis Kelce (44.4%). They're also the only four to provide at least 2x value more frequently than they fell shy of 1.5x value.
Tournament Standouts
- In addition to the top four, just two tight ends produced at least 15.0 FanDuel points in 20% of their simulated games: Mark Andrews (34.0%) and Darren Waller (23.5%)
Bust Candidates
- Everyone is at tight end, but four who are priced above $5,000 and fell shy of 1.5x value at least 6 out of 10 times are Eric Ebron (66.2%), Jack Doyle (65.8%), Will Dissly (63.6%), and Jared Cook (63.2%).