Fantasy football is a decision-making game as much as it's anything else. Whether you watch game tape, scour through analytics, read expert opinions, or play with your instincts, everything funnels down into an ultimate decision on how you feel about a particular player or strategy.
No matter how much time you spend on your research, there are going to be players about whom you have no strong feelings one way or the other. For me, one of those guys is FantasyFootballCalculator.com). Right now, our FootballOutsiders.com to see what these backs were running behind. Here's what I found.
| Player | Season | Rushing NEP | Per Rush | Success | Adj. Line Yds | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 2008 | 12.42 | 0.05 | 42.16% | 4.19 | 10 |
| Alfred Morris | 2012 | 10.85 | 0.03 | 46.13% | 4.24 | 8 |
| Doug Martin | 2012 | 10.18 | 0.03 | 40.31% | 4.09 | 13 |
| Eddie Lacy | 2013 | 2.32 | 0.01 | 42.46% | 4.11 | 5 |
| Chris Johnson | 2008 | -0.14 | 0.00 | 39.44% | 4.07 | 20 |
| Willis McGahee | 2004 | -5.67 | -0.02 | 42.91% | 3.93 | 24 |
| Cadillac Williams | 2005 | -9.58 | -0.03 | 40.69% | 3.85 | 21 |
| Zac Stacy | 2013 | -10.41 | -0.04 | 38.00% | 3.95 | 12 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2007 | -14.29 | -0.05 | 38.93% | 3.95 | 24 |
| Trent Richardson | 2012 | -17.80 | -0.07 | 40.45% | 4.03 | 20 |
| Matt Forte | 2008 | -18.28 | -0.06 | 36.83% | 3.96 | 24 |
Out of this group, Stacy's ranks are not very impressive, but all of the backs were top-19 fantasy rushers in their rookie years. He had the eighth-best Rushing NEP and Rushing NEP per rush, and the 10th-best Success Rate. His offensive line did have just the eighth-best Adjusted Line Yards of the bunch, but their score was 12th in 2013, meaning Stacy's rookie line was better than all but three lines these rookies ran behind.
Basically, Stacy ranked poorly despite having an above-average offensive line. This tells us a bit about Stacy's situation: mainly that a good deal of his rushing attempts were thwarted and provided no benefit to the Rams' pursuit of points.
If the you of 2013 could see the future, and you read that previous sentence, there's really no way you would have expected him to be the 18th-best fantasy running back. But that's where he ended up at the end of 2013 because raw production is all that matters in fantasy football.
Production: Year Two
Of course, we're not just interested in Stacy's comparisons during rookie seasons. What really matters is trying to look ahead and see what similar types of players were able to do in the following season. Big jumps would be good news for Stacy, but that's not really the case.
| Player | Rushes | Rushing NEP | Per Rush | Success | Adj. Line Yds | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 358 | 32.44 | 0.09 | 40.22% | 4.01 | 22 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 251 | -3.47 | -0.01 | 39.44% | 4.12 | 14 |
| Alfred Morris | 276 | -4.15 | -0.02 | 44.93% | 3.75 | 23 |
| Doug Martin | 128 | -12.64 | -0.10 | 39.06% | 3.63 | 27 |
| Willis McGahee | 325 | -15.53 | -0.05 | 42.46% | 4.03 | 14 |
| Steve Slaton | 131 | -26.80 | -0.20 | 33.59% | 4.13 | 16 |
| Trent Richardson | 188 | -27.14 | -0.14 | 36.70% | 3.89 | 15 |
| Cadillac Williams | 225 | -29.74 | -0.13 | 36.00% | 3.77 | 30 |
| Matt Forte | 259 | -31.42 | -0.12 | 33.98% | 4.08 | 18 |
I added a column for rushes because not all of the players were able to hit the 250-carry mark in their second season, and some experienced severe drops in volume. Whereas 4 of the 11 rookies were able to post positive Rushing NEPs, just 1 of 9 sophomores were able to do so (bear in mind that Stacy and out until Week 9, and on August 8th to determine how long of a suspension he'll receive for a litany of off-field incidents.
With Week 6 and Week 9 match-ups against the 49ers, Stacy could face them without Bowman and Smith in the first game and, perhaps, face both in Bowman's first game back. Two of those vaunted intra-divisional match-ups could be pretty manageable for Stacy and the team's revitalized offensive line.
Buy Him or Sell Him?
Like I mentioned before, we have Stacy ranked as the 14th running back for standard leagues this year, and we're projecting an uptick for him across the board (289.82 rushes, 1139.95 yards, and 8.95 touchdowns). His NEP and historical peers aren't entirely promising - it's about a 50/50 split in terms of repeat seasons as a startable fantasy back and a worse-than-flex season.
There's some chatter about a change-of-pace type of player for now.
Provided that he stays healthy (unlike Doug Martin, Steve Slaton, and Cadillac Williams) or doesn't become Trent Richardson overnight, Stacy should be a lock to live up to his draft-day price and finish as a top-20 fantasy rusher. His metrics don't indicate he's going to become elite like Johnson back when he was CJ2K in 2009, but there is plenty of proof in the numbers that he'll end up a solid RB2 in fantasy this year.
Knowing how hard it is to find late-round rushers and how important running backs are in fantasy football, I think I just sold my risk-averse self on Stacy.