"If you ain't first, you're last."
In addition to being the most memorable line of a mediocre comedy movie, the quote above applies to most NFL fans' thoughts on pre-season power rankings.
Ahead of every NFL season, hope is abundant for fans, who believe the moves their team has made will put them over the top heading into the next year. So clicking on a link just to see a writer rank their team outside of the top spot of mostly meaningless rankings is nothing but a bucket of cold water to douse the flame of optimism for the season to come.
Here at numberFire, our rankings are a bit different, as they're based on our nERD, a calculation of how a team would fare against a league average opponent. And while you can check out the whole list by visiting our "never count out Touchdown Tom."
Tom Brady might not ever return to his record-breaking form of a few years ago, but he and the New England Patriots are still one of the NFL's best teams, and our numbers see them as a true contender in a top-heavy AFC this season.
New England have a 74.7% chance of making the playoffs out of a very weak division, but have a 9.1% chance of winning it all, just shy of the Saints' 9.2%. And like the Saints, the Patriots are good on both sides of the ball, and adding some intriguing talent this offseason. The offense ranks in the preseason top five coming off of a fourth-place finish last year, led by Brady and a seemingly healthy Rob Gronkowski.
The defense ranks in the top 10, but the addition of Darrelle Revis could prove to be the catalyst to send the Patriots to another Super Bowl title. If he's able to impact the game as he did during his time in New York, combined with the talent all over the Patriots' roster as it's currently constructed, there may not be a better team in the NFL.
But the uncertainty about Gronkowski's health, Revis' true impact, and the skill at the receiver position keep New England at the fourth spot for now. Just don't be shocked if they're three spots higher by the end of the season.
5. San Francisco 49ers
A top-five team with a coin-flip chance of making the playoffs? When you're in the NFC West, things are never easy, but the 49ers are our fifth-best team heading into the 2014 season.
Despite the lofty ranking, the Niners only have a 49.5% chance of making the playoffs, with a projected 9-7 record. Considering that their division rivals are the Seahawks (2nd), Cardinals (11th) and Rams (19th), it's easy to see why they may struggle to find any "gimme" games this year.
Yet there are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic about San Francisco. Both their offense and defense rank in the top 10, and while neither are on pace with the Seahawks, the 49ers are still one of the more balanced teams in the NFL. Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis return to haul in passes from Colin Kaepernick in an offense we see as on the rise after a 13th place finish last season in our Adjusted NEP metric.
The defense is loaded with great players and is very well coached, but there are question marks for the Niners. Are the corners good enough, and will Aldon Smith get (and stay) on the field for most of the season? The offense has its grey areas, as well, including the health of the running back position in general, and a question as to Colin Kaepernick's ability to take a step forward and provide something truly special from the quarterback position.
The 49ers are one of six NFC teams in the top 10 of our rankings, and one of eight in the top 12. So while they face a tough road to the playoffs, our metrics see them as the third-best of the bunch in their conference, and a team to keep an eye on this year.