Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Table Terms
Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. For tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.
Quarterback
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % | Boom/Bust Ratio | 25+ FDP % | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | $9,200 | 23.9 | 33.3% | 1.54 | 45.5% | 29.6 |
| Lamar Jackson | $8,300 | 21.8 | 35.8% | 1.55 | 35.0% | 27.1 |
| Deshaun Watson | $8,200 | 21.5 | 35.0% | 1.45 | 32.3% | 26.5 |
| Russell Wilson | $7,800 | 21.3 | 37.6% | 1.50 | 29.0% | 25.9 |
| Jared Goff | $7,700 | 20.1 | 34.4% | 1.31 | 26.5% | 25.3 |
| Daniel Jones | $7,300 | 20.0 | 41.2% | 1.86 | 25.1% | 25.0 |
| Matt Ryan | $7,900 | 19.4 | 28.2% | 0.87 | 23.0% | 24.5 |
| Kyler Murray | $7,600 | 18.9 | 31.2% | 1.01 | 22.2% | 24.4 |
| Philip Rivers | $7,800 | 18.9 | 28.6% | 0.88 | 21.7% | 24.2 |
| Matthew Stafford | $6,900 | 18.7 | 41.6% | 1.58 | 22.0% | 24.0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $7,300 | 18.1 | 32.0% | 1.04 | 19.6% | 23.5 |
| Jameis Winston | $7,500 | 17.5 | 24.7% | 0.67 | 14.9% | 22.4 |
| Tom Brady | $7,800 | 17.4 | 19.8% | 0.49 | 14.8% | 22.3 |
| Case Keenum | $7,200 | 17.1 | 25.4% | 0.69 | 14.3% | 21.7 |
| Kyle Allen | $6,800 | 16.9 | 30.5% | 0.96 | 12.5% | 21.7 |
| Josh Allen | $7,400 | 16.6 | 19.6% | 0.47 | 11.6% | 20.9 |
| Marcus Mariota | $6,900 | 16.4 | 27.6% | 0.77 | 11.4% | 21.3 |
| Baker Mayfield | $7,500 | 16.1 | 18.5% | 0.40 | 11.3% | 21.0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | $6,800 | 15.3 | 25.1% | 0.63 | 9.0% | 20.4 |
| Derek Carr | $6,800 | 15.3 | 25.7% | 0.67 | 10.1% | 20.5 |
| Gardner Minshew II | $6,700 | 14.9 | 21.9% | 0.50 | 9.0% | 19.3 |
| Kirk Cousins | $6,900 | 13.7 | 19.0% | 0.38 | 8.0% | 18.7 |
| Joe Flacco | $6,400 | 13.7 | 25.0% | 0.59 | 5.2% | 19.2 |
| Josh Rosen | $6,200 | 11.8 | 18.8% | 0.35 | 4.2% | 17.1 |
Cash-Game Standouts
- Seven passers returned 3x value in at least a third of the weeks: Matthew Stafford, Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff, and Patrick Mahomes
Tournament Standouts
- Mahomes' 75th-range outcome (29.6) is 2.5 points higher than Lamar Jackson's (27.1), and he hit 25-plus FanDuel points in an insane 45.5% of the simulated weeks. The only two other marks above 30% belong to Jackson (35.0%) and Watson (32.3%). Russell Wilson, Jared Goff, and Daniel Jones also have 75th-percentile outcomes of at least 25.0 FanDuel points if seeking high raw outputs.
Bust Candidates
- The least likely passers to hit 2x value are Josh Rosen, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Gardner Minshew, and Joe Flacco.
Running Back
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % | Boom/Bust Ratio | 20+ FDP % | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $9,000 | 20.7 | 58.5% | 0.70 | 52.1% | 28.7 |
| Austin Ekeler | $8,100 | 19.3 | 59.9% | 0.80 | 46.7% | 26.6 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,300 | 15.9 | 48.4% | 0.36 | 34.5% | 22.6 |
| Leonard Fournette | $6,400 | 15.7 | 61.0% | 0.90 | 32.5% | 21.8 |
| Marlon Mack | $7,300 | 15.3 | 54.9% | 0.54 | 31.9% | 21.8 |
| David Johnson | $6,800 | 15.2 | 57.0% | 0.77 | 35.0% | 22.6 |
| Nick Chubb | $7,300 | 15.1 | 50.5% | 0.47 | 29.8% | 21.4 |
| Chris Carson | $7,000 | 14.5 | 51.7% | 0.49 | 26.2% | 20.4 |
| Todd Gurley II | $6,800 | 14.5 | 55.1% | 0.57 | 27.4% | 20.7 |
| Kerryon Johnson | $6,500 | 14.4 | 54.1% | 0.63 | 26.9% | 20.5 |
| Phillip Lindsay | $6,900 | 13.8 | 50.3% | 0.44 | 24.1% | 19.8 |
| Derrick Henry | $7,000 | 13.6 | 47.4% | 0.36 | 22.2% | 19.3 |
| Mark Ingram II | $7,800 | 13.0 | 38.1% | 0.21 | 21.8% | 19.1 |
| Devonta Freeman | $6,200 | 12.6 | 51.3% | 0.50 | 19.3% | 18.5 |
| Wayne Gallman Jr. | $5,800 | 12.3 | 55.5% | 0.60 | 16.1% | 17.8 |
| Josh Jacobs | $6,000 | 12.0 | 49.6% | 0.42 | 15.0% | 17.4 |
| David Montgomery | $6,000 | 11.6 | 47.2% | 0.36 | 13.3% | 16.5 |
| LeSean McCoy | $6,300 | 11.4 | 43.3% | 0.30 | 12.6% | 16.4 |
| Chris Thompson | $5,300 | 10.8 | 50.3% | 0.54 | 14.1% | 16.4 |
| Adrian Peterson | $5,500 | 10.1 | 44.1% | 0.34 | 8.3% | 14.8 |
| Royce Freeman | $5,500 | 10.0 | 45.5% | 0.37 | 9.5% | 15.4 |
| Carlos Hyde | $5,900 | 9.9 | 40.9% | 0.22 | 7.6% | 14.8 |
| James White | $6,200 | 9.8 | 36.7% | 0.21 | 9.6% | 14.9 |
| Kenyan Drake | $5,300 | 9.7 | 44.8% | 0.41 | 9.2% | 15.1 |
| Sony Michel | $6,100 | 9.6 | 36.2% | 0.16 | 6.6% | 14.5 |
| Justin Jackson | $6,200 | 9.5 | 31.2% | 0.13 | 6.2% | 13.9 |
| Rex Burkhead | $5,600 | 8.9 | 36.9% | 0.24 | 7.4% | 13.6 |
| Frank Gore | $5,700 | 8.4 | 32.2% | 0.11 | 3.2% | 12.7 |
| Peyton Barber | $5,700 | 8.1 | 31.8% | 0.15 | 4.7% | 12.8 |
| Tarik Cohen | $5,800 | 8.0 | 32.7% | 0.21 | 6.8% | 13.6 |
| Duke Johnson | $5,300 | 8.0 | 34.5% | 0.18 | 3.5% | 12.2 |
| Darrel Williams | $5,500 | 7.5 | 26.0% | 0.06 | 0.8% | 11.4 |
| Damien Williams | $6,400 | 7.2 | 16.3% | 0.02 | 1.0% | 10.9 |
| Rashaad Penny | $5,900 | 6.2 | 16.3% | 0.03 | 0.8% | 10.2 |
| Kalen Ballage | $4,900 | 6.2 | 27.4% | 0.11 | 1.0% | 10.3 |
| Nyheim Hines | $4,800 | 6.2 | 29.6% | 0.12 | 1.3% | 10.5 |
| Malcolm Brown | $5,500 | 6.1 | 15.5% | 0.02 | 0.5% | 9.2 |
| Ronald Jones II | $5,100 | 6.0 | 22.1% | 0.07 | 1.0% | 9.7 |
| Devin Singletary | $5,400 | 5.8 | 17.8% | 0.03 | 0.3% | 9.5 |
| C.J. Prosise | $4,800 | 5.7 | 19.8% | 0.03 | 0.0% | 8.8 |
| Dion Lewis | $4,900 | 5.2 | 20.6% | 0.06 | 0.2% | 9.1 |
Cash-Game Standouts
- Running back is flush with affordable options this week, namely Leonard Fournette, David Johnson, Wayne Gallman, Todd Gurley, Kerryon Johnson, and Devonta Freeman, all of whom are cheaper than $7,000 and hit 2x value in at least half of the simulated weeks. It's also worth noting that Chris Thompson did that at $5,300, as well. But it's hard to hate on Christian McCaffrey even at $9,000 with his simulated results.
Tournament Standouts
- David Johnson, Fournette, Marlon Mack, Nick Chubb, Gurley, Kerryon Johnson, and Chris Carson all had 75th-percentile outcomes above 20.0 FanDuel points at reasonable prices, so there's no shortage of high-upside backs for Week 4.
Bust Candidates
- Among the top-30 backs in terms of projected FanDuel points to get us a usable set, the least likely to return 1.5x value are: Peyton Barber, Justin Jackson, Frank Gore, Tarik Cohen, Rex Burkhead, James White, Sony Michel, and Mark Ingram.
Wide Receiver
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % | Boom/Bust Ratio | 15+ FDP % | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | $8,100 | 18.3 | 55.8% | 0.92 | 59.0% | 25.8 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $8,700 | 16.0 | 44.1% | 0.45 | 54.0% | 23.5 |
| Julio Jones | $8,500 | 15.9 | 45.6% | 0.47 | 54.0% | 23.0 |
| Sammy Watkins | $6,900 | 14.8 | 53.3% | 0.85 | 48.8% | 21.4 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | $7,900 | 14.6 | 43.8% | 0.47 | 47.6% | 21.3 |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,600 | 14.5 | 55.8% | 0.90 | 47.8% | 20.4 |
| Cooper Kupp | $7,000 | 14.0 | 49.4% | 0.55 | 45.1% | 19.4 |
| Mike Evans | $7,700 | 13.7 | 45.4% | 0.43 | 47.4% | 20.5 |
| Kenny Golladay | $6,700 | 13.5 | 52.4% | 0.79 | 45.1% | 20.3 |
| Brandin Cooks | $7,300 | 13.1 | 45.5% | 0.47 | 43.8% | 20.0 |
| Sterling Shepard | $6,500 | 12.7 | 47.9% | 0.57 | 39.8% | 18.6 |
| Julian Edelman | $6,900 | 12.6 | 44.8% | 0.42 | 38.3% | 18.2 |
| Robert Woods | $7,100 | 12.5 | 44.6% | 0.44 | 40.1% | 19.2 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,100 | 12.5 | 42.7% | 0.43 | 39.1% | 18.9 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | $5,900 | 12.2 | 49.5% | 0.72 | 36.2% | 18.3 |
| Christian Kirk | $5,900 | 12.1 | 48.7% | 0.74 | 38.9% | 18.8 |
| Adam Thielen | $7,000 | 12.1 | 39.5% | 0.34 | 35.6% | 17.7 |
| Terry McLaurin | $6,300 | 11.7 | 47.0% | 0.57 | 36.2% | 18.1 |
| DJ Moore | $6,400 | 11.6 | 42.6% | 0.43 | 33.1% | 16.9 |
| Marquise Brown | $5,700 | 11.6 | 51.1% | 0.68 | 34.0% | 17.0 |
| Allen Robinson II | $7,000 | 11.2 | 36.3% | 0.25 | 31.5% | 16.8 |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | $5,900 | 11.1 | 47.9% | 0.53 | 31.6% | 16.4 |
| Tyrell Williams | $5,900 | 10.8 | 47.5% | 0.47 | 30.3% | 16.1 |
| Curtis Samuel | $5,800 | 10.6 | 46.0% | 0.53 | 28.9% | 16.2 |
| Josh Gordon | $6,200 | 10.4 | 39.1% | 0.33 | 28.6% | 15.8 |
| T.Y. Hilton | $7,400 | 10.4 | 22.5% | 0.05 | 21.5% | 14.3 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $5,500 | 10.3 | 48.7% | 0.66 | 29.7% | 16.3 |
| Calvin Ridley | $5,800 | 10.2 | 43.7% | 0.47 | 28.7% | 16.0 |
| Stefon Diggs | $6,100 | 10.1 | 40.9% | 0.35 | 28.9% | 16.0 |
| Mike Williams | $6,100 | 9.9 | 39.5% | 0.32 | 27.1% | 15.5 |
| Jarvis Landry | $6,200 | 9.9 | 37.1% | 0.26 | 25.1% | 15.0 |
| DK Metcalf | $6,100 | 9.9 | 36.3% | 0.26 | 23.7% | 14.7 |
| Will Fuller V | $5,900 | 9.8 | 37.9% | 0.31 | 23.5% | 14.5 |
| Demarcus Robinson | $6,700 | 9.7 | 29.9% | 0.12 | 20.6% | 14.4 |
| John Brown | $5,600 | 9.6 | 42.3% | 0.35 | 22.6% | 14.4 |
| Mecole Hardman | $6,500 | 9.3 | 31.1% | 0.16 | 20.8% | 14.0 |
| Courtland Sutton | $5,700 | 9.2 | 39.4% | 0.33 | 24.1% | 14.7 |
| DJ Chark Jr. | $6,000 | 8.8 | 34.4% | 0.20 | 19.9% | 13.7 |
| Cole Beasley | $5,200 | 8.6 | 40.7% | 0.38 | 18.9% | 13.7 |
| Preston Williams | $5,200 | 8.5 | 38.7% | 0.35 | 18.1% | 13.2 |
| Dede Westbrook | $5,300 | 8.5 | 38.9% | 0.37 | 21.0% | 13.7 |
| Mohamed Sanu | $5,700 | 8.3 | 36.1% | 0.25 | 20.3% | 13.8 |
| Phillip Dorsett II | $5,900 | 8.3 | 28.4% | 0.14 | 15.5% | 12.5 |
| Danny Amendola | $4,900 | 8.1 | 42.4% | 0.49 | 20.6% | 13.4 |
| Paul Richardson Jr. | $4,700 | 8.0 | 42.0% | 0.42 | 16.4% | 12.8 |
| Corey Davis | $5,200 | 7.7 | 32.5% | 0.20 | 12.3% | 11.8 |
| Trey Quinn | $5,400 | 7.5 | 32.2% | 0.23 | 14.6% | 12.1 |
| Kenny Stills | $5,400 | 7.0 | 25.2% | 0.10 | 8.2% | 10.8 |
Cash-Game Standouts
- Keenan Allen grades out with the best boom-to-bust ratio of all wide receivers, despite his price. His elite market share and cakewalk of a matchup should yield a high floor. However, blowout potential and weather are two routes to a disappointing game. Four other wideouts returned 2x value in at least half of their games: Tyler Lockett, Sammy Watkins, Kenny Golladay, and Marquise Brown. A few more cheaper options came just short: Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, Emmanuel Sanders, Marvin Jones, and Tyrell Williams.
Tournament Standouts
- With Allen's expected ownership, both DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones grade out as tournament plays with 75th-percentile outcomes (23.5 and 23.0) just shy of Allen's (25.8). Watkins also has a 75th-percentile outcome above 20 at a sub-$7,000 salary. Below $6,000, Kirk and Fitzgerald stand out against a Seattle Seahawks team that struggles against the slot. The most likely sub-$6,000 wideouts to hit 20 FanDuel points: Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Marquise Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Calvin Ridley, Marvin Jones, Tyrell Williams, and Curtis Samuel.
Bust Candidates
- Among relevant wide receivers (so those projected for at least 7.0 FanDuel points and those in the general consideration set), these are the least likely to return 1.5x value: Phillip Dorsett, Mecole Hardman, Trey Quinn, Demarcus Robinson, Corey Davis, D.J. Chark, Allen Robinson, Dede Westbrook, Jarvis Landry, and Mohamed Sanu.
Tight End
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % | Boom/Bust Ratio | 15+ FDP % | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $7,600 | 15.8 | 52.4% | 1.55 | 52.9% | 23.1 |
| Evan Engram | $6,800 | 13.9 | 49.6% | 1.41 | 43.8% | 20.3 |
| Darren Waller | $6,700 | 11.9 | 45.7% | 1.19 | 37.8% | 18.1 |
| Mark Andrews | $6,100 | 10.6 | 40.3% | 0.92 | 27.7% | 15.6 |
| Greg Olsen | $6,000 | 9.9 | 39.4% | 0.88 | 26.9% | 15.2 |
| Delanie Walker | $5,700 | 9.4 | 37.3% | 0.79 | 21.5% | 13.8 |
| Austin Hooper | $6,400 | 9.3 | 30.7% | 0.59 | 23.1% | 14.4 |
| Will Dissly | $5,400 | 8.5 | 37.1% | 0.76 | 15.6% | 13.0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $5,200 | 7.6 | 35.8% | 0.74 | 14.1% | 12.4 |
| Eric Ebron | $5,300 | 7.5 | 30.6% | 0.57 | 14.9% | 11.8 |
| O.J. Howard | $5,900 | 7.1 | 22.0% | 0.36 | 7.8% | 11.1 |
| Jack Doyle | $5,200 | 6.8 | 30.8% | 0.57 | 11.3% | 11.5 |
| Vernon Davis | $5,100 | 6.6 | 28.2% | 0.51 | 9.6% | 10.9 |
| Trey Burton | $4,900 | 5.3 | 20.1% | 0.31 | 2.3% | 8.8 |
| Noah Fant | $4,600 | 5.1 | 22.3% | 0.34 | 4.1% | 8.5 |
Cash-Game Standouts
- Spending up at the position on Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, and Darren Waller is the best way to aim for a high floor. With value at running back, it's a viable approach this week. If spending down, Will Dissly offers the best expected floor among tight ends below $5,500.
Tournament Standouts
- Aside from Kelce, Engram, and Waller, Mark Andrews and Greg Olsen have high 75th-percentile outcomes. Austin Hooper grades out as a volatile option but also a likely candidate to top 15 FanDuel Points relative to his peers. And with Dissly, Kelce, and Engram shaping up as chalky picks, the mid-$6,000 range could be a prime place for ownership leverage.
Bust Candidates
- Hooper at his salary has bust potential, as does O.J. Howard at $5,900. Given Howard's status as a huge road underdog and his lack of involvement, he's a tough sell in anything other than a full game stack.