Week 4 was an odd week of football. We saw the Kansas City Chiefs score 34 points against the Detroit Lions without Patrick Mahomes throwing a single touchdown. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers scored 55 points on the road in their upset win against the Los Angeles Rams; only 4 of 15 teams won at home last week.
As for our power rankings, we had quite a bit of movement. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers took the biggest leaps forward, while the Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens took the biggest steps back.
We had five teams stay in the same spot from last week, and the Chiefs made the first big threat of the season to take over the number one overall spot.
Here are our Week 5 NFL Power Rankings:
Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Miami Dolphins | -15.76 | 0-4 | 0.1% | 32 | 31 | 0 |
| 31 | Arizona Cardinals | -7.62 | 0-3-1 | 0.4% | 24 | 24 | 0 |
| 30 | Washington Redskins | -7.59 | 0-4 | 0.4% | 28 | 25 | -2 |
| 29 | New York Jets | -6.20 | 0-3 | 4.4% | 31 | 16 | 1 |
| 28 | Cincinnati Bengals | -5.33 | 0-4 | 4.8% | 23 | 28 | -2 |
| 27 | Oakland Raiders | -4.10 | 2-2 | 12.9% | 19 | 18 | 2 |
| 26 | Indianapolis Colts | -2.03 | 2-2 | 23.8% | 7 | 26 | -6 |
| 25 | Denver Broncos | -1.84 | 0-4 | 2.4% | 11 | 27 | -4 |
| 24 | Detroit Lions | -1.72 | 2-1-1 | 24.9% | 29 | 7 | -5 |
| 23 | New York Giants | -1.66 | 2-2 | 21.9% | 8 | 21 | 4 |
The Denver Broncos made their way into the bottom bracket for the first time this year after falling short again in Week 4 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Broncos also took a major hit by losing their star second-year defensive end, Bradley Chubb, to a season-ending ACL injury. That is a major loss to a defense that is already allowing 0.16 Adjusted Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, the sixth-worst across the entire league.
They’ll look to lean on their offense going forward, which has been rather efficient, currently ranking 11th overall in terms of offensive rating.
The New York Giants find themselves moving up the rankings again this week after Daniel Jones led the team to their second straight win. Since Jones took over as the Giants' starting quarterback in Week 3, the team’s playoff chances have risen from 3.1% to 21.9%. While they still have a long way to go to be considered a playoff contender, they are certainly trending in the right direction with Jones at quarterback.
He’ll have his first true test as a starting quarterback this week, as he faces a tough Minnesota Vikings defense. The Vikings' defense currently ranks in the top-12 in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, and top-3 in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play.
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Philadelphia Eagles | -1.59 | 2-2 | 46.2% | 16 | 29 | -7 |
| 21 | Atlanta Falcons | -1.12 | 1-3 | 7.6% | 9 | 20 | 1 |
| 20 | Seattle Seahawks | -0.58 | 3-1 | 45.5% | 22 | 23 | -9 |
| 19 | Los Angeles Chargers | -0.57 | 2-2 | 40.3% | 15 | 30 | -6 |
| 18 | Cleveland Browns | -0.37 | 2-2 | 47.4% | 25 | 15 | 7 |
| 17 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -0.16 | 2-2 | 38.3% | 21 | 12 | 6 |
| 16 | Baltimore Ravens | 0.77 | 2-2 | 38.4% | 2 | 32 | -11 |
| 15 | Buffalo Bills | 1.28 | 3-1 | 68.1% | 10 | 10 | -1 |
| 14 | Dallas Cowboys | 1.43 | 3-1 | 54.3% | 4 | 22 | -12 |
| 13 | Carolina Panthers | 1.53 | 2-2 | 25.8% | 27 | 6 | 3 |
After a convincing 2-0 start to the season, the Baltimore Ravens have lost their last two games. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense continue to produce, as they currently have the second-best overall offensive rating across the league. They’ve been particularly good when running the ball, as they currently have the third-best Adjusted Rushing NEP per play (0.15).
Their defense, however, has struggled tremendously over the past two weeks. As we head into Week 5, the Ravens' defense is currently allowing 0.22 Adjusted Defensive NEP per play, the worst across the entire league. We saw Patrick Mahomes carve this defense up through the air in Week 3, as he threw for 374 yards and 3 touchdowns. Then, Nick Chubb exploited them in the running game last week, rushing for 165 yards and 3 touchdowns.
This is a big concern for a team that has notoriously prided themselves on strong defensive play. Things won’t get any easier for them going forward, as they currently have the second-toughest remaining schedule this season, per FantasyPros.
While Daniel Jones has been the savior at quarterback for the Giants this season, he hasn’t been the only rookie quarterback to spark his team to two consecutive wins. Gardner Minshew of the Jacksonville Jaguars has now gone on to win his last two games as starting quarterback. He led the Jaguars to a comeback win against the Denver Broncos last week after being down 17-6 in the first half.
Leonard Fournette was rather impressive in this matchup, too, as he ran for 225 rushing yards. He had a 8.67 Rushing NEP against the Broncos, which ranked best among any running backs in Week 4.
The Jaguars will look to carry their two-win momentum in Carolina this week, against a Carolina Panthers team that is heating up themselves.
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Houston Texans | 1.92 | 2-2 | 46.4% | 17 | 13 | -2 |
| 11 | Chicago Bears | 2.32 | 3-1 | 46.2% | 30 | 5 | -2 |
| 10 | Tennessee Titans | 2.51 | 2-2 | 42.1% | 26 | 3 | 2 |
| 9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.59 | 1-3 | 35.3% | 5 | 17 | 15 |
| 8 | San Francisco 49ers | 2.62 | 3-0 | 63.8% | 13 | 2 | 0 |
| 7 | New Orleans Saints | 2.66 | 3-1 | 67.1% | 12 | 19 | 10 |
| 6 | Minnesota Vikings | 3.77 | 2-2 | 32.1% | 14 | 8 | 0 |
| 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4.16 | 2-2 | 29.4% | 3 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | 4.46 | 3-1 | 63.3% | 18 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Rams | 5.45 | 3-1 | 71.2% | 6 | 14 | 1 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 9.14 | 4-0 | 97.3% | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| 1 | New England Patriots | 9.31 | 4-0 | 97.8% | 20 | 1 | 0 |
After losing their starting quarterback, Drew Brees, in their Week 2 loss against the Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints fans may have lost some hope for this season.
However, since then, they’ve gone on to win their last two games as underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks and previously unbeaten Dallas Cowboys. In their Sunday night game against the Cowboys, the Saints' defense looked like the unstoppable force they portrayed towards the end of last season. They held Ezekiel Elliott to 35 rushing yards, the third-lowest mark of his career.
That boosts the Saints into our top-10 this week with a 2.66 nERD score – a metric that measures how many points above or below average a team is. Should this team continue to win without Brees, they’ll be a force to reckon with when he does return.
For the first time this season, we’ve had a team challenge the New England Patriots for the number one spot in our rankings. Throughout the first four weeks, the Patriots' nERD score was far above any other teams’, essentially doubling the second ranked team's nERD score.
This week, however, the Kansas City Chiefs' nERD score falls just 0.17 points short of the Patriots. With the number one overall ranked offense and a steadily improving defense, the Chiefs are the first real threat to taking over the number one spot this season.
Patrick Mahomes continues to be out of this world, with a 77.09 Passing NEP – the highest among any quarterback. He’ll look to continue leading this Chiefs team to an undefeated season, as they remain one of three teams yet to lose, along with the Patriots and Buffalo Bills.
Who knows, it may just come down to when the Chiefs and Patriots play one another in Week 14 to determine who the real number one team is.