We’re five weeks into the NFL season, and we see quite a few teams where we expected them to be in the rankings. The New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs were expected to be among the top contenders this year, and they currently rank as the top-two teams in our power rankings. On the other hand, the Miami Dolphins and Washington Redskins were considered to be rebuilding teams, and they rank in the bottom-three.
We’ve also had some teams surprise up to this point, too. After having several questions surrounding the health and direction of their quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, the San Francisco 49ers are off to one of the best starts of any team. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns have underperformed after being one of the most hyped up teams this offseason.
This week in our power rankings, we saw the Indianapolis Colts and Seattle Seahawks take the biggest leap forward, while the Browns took the biggest step back.
Here are our Week 6 NFL Power Rankings:
Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Miami Dolphins | -16.69 | 0-4 | 0.1% | 31 | 32 | 0 |
| 31 | New York Jets | -8.79 | 0-4 | 1.3% | 32 | 13 | -2 |
| 30 | Washington Redskins | -7.64 | 0-5 | 0.2% | 25 | 28 | 1 |
| 29 | Arizona Cardinals | -7.03 | 1-3-1 | 0.4% | 22 | 27 | 2 |
| 28 | Cincinnati Bengals | -6.11 | 0-5 | 3.2% | 20 | 29 | 0 |
| 27 | Cleveland Browns | -3.73 | 2-3 | 9.8% | 29 | 22 | -9 |
| 26 | New York Giants | -3.73 | 2-3 | 28.6% | 18 | 25 | -3 |
| 25 | Atlanta Falcons | -2.23 | 1-4 | 2.2% | 3 | 30 | -4 |
| 24 | Oakland Raiders | -1.81 | 3-2 | 30.8% | 8 | 19 | 3 |
| 23 | Los Angeles Chargers | -1.72 | 2-3 | 20.6% | 24 | 26 | -4 |
After getting off to a sluggish start to the season, there was a sense of relief in Cleveland after the Browns defeated the Baltimore Ravens convincingly on the road. But that was short lived after the Browns lost to the 49ers on Monday Night Football this past week by a score of 31 - 3. They now rank 27th overall in our rankings, with less than a 10% chance of making playoffs.
Baker Mayfield has yet to find a grove in the passing game with this offense producing just 0.01 Adjusted Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, which ranks fourth-worst across the entire league. He’ll face a Seattle Seahawks defense this week that ranks in the bottom-10 in terms of Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play (0.21).
The Browns' defense has been one of the bright spots of this team but has struggled against the run this season, ranking 22nd in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. Niners running backs Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert had their way with the Browns' defense on Monday night, combining for 245 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns.
After ranking in the top-10 to start this season, the Los Angeles Chargers now find themselves in the bottom bracket of our rankings. They’ve lost three of their last four games, with the one win coming against the worst team in the league, the Miami Dolphins.
The Chargers' playoff chances have dropped from more than 60% to roughly 20% in less than three weeks, and they have an uphill climb to finish the season. Per FantasyPros, they have the 28th-hardest remaining schedule across the league. They play the Kansas City Chiefs twice and Green Bay Packers in Week 9 to finish out the season, two teams who currently sit in the top-three of our rankings.
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Philadelphia Eagles | -1.57 | 3-2 | 61.0% | 23 | 13 | 0 |
| 21 | Detroit Lions | -1.14 | 2-1-1 | 22.0% | 26 | 9 | 3 |
| 20 | Baltimore Ravens | -1.1 | 3-2 | 54.0% | 4 | 31 | -4 |
| 19 | Denver Broncos | -0.97 | 1-4 | 6.6% | 21 | 18 | 6 |
| 18 | Indianapolis Colts | -0.46 | 3-2 | 45.1% | 15 | 20 | 8 |
| 17 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.16 | 2-3 | 27.5% | 13 | 17 | 0 |
| 16 | Chicago Bears | 1.14 | 3-2 | 20.8% | 30 | 7 | -5 |
| 15 | Dallas Cowboys | 1.3 | 3-2 | 41.0% | 2 | 24 | -1 |
| 14 | Seattle Seahawks | 1.34 | 4-1 | 54.7% | 11 | 21 | 6 |
| 13 | Tennessee Titans | 1.53 | 2-3 | 22.6% | 27 | 6 | -3 |
The Indianapolis Colts find themselves taking the biggest step forward in our rankings this week after beating the Chiefs on the road last week. The Colts have been one of the best teams in terms of running the ball this season, with a 0.11 Adjusted Rushing NEP per play, ranking sixth-best across the league. That is a trend you’ll likely see continue going forward, as the Colts have run the ball on 47.89% of their plays this season, the fourth-most across the league, per TeamRankings.
The Colts' defense has struggled to start this season, largely due to several injuries to significant players – most notably Darius Leonard and Malik Hooker. Leonard cleared the concussion protocol as of yesterday and will be a big boost to this defense once he returns. The Colts are on bye this week, so Leonard has an extra week to rest before facing the Houston Texans in Week 7.
Another team who finds themselves taking a big leap forward in our rankings this week is the Seattle Seahawks, a team that is notorious for running the ball is strangely getting the job done through the air this season. While still running the ball on 47.6% of their plays, the Seahawks offense has been tremendously efficient when throwing the ball. They're tied for the third-best Adjusted Passing NEP per play this season (0.25).
Through five games, Russell Wilson has the third-best passing accuracy percentage rating across the league, completing 73.1% of his passes. He also ranks top-seven in passing yards, yards per attempt and quarterback rating. Wilson will look to keep up those numbers and lead this Seahawks team toward the top with the league’s 12th-easiest remaining schedule this season.
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Buffalo Bills | 1.84 | 4-1 | 85.5% | 16 | 10 | 3 |
| 11 | Carolina Panthers | 2.2 | 3-2 | 26.2% | 28 | 4 | 2 |
| 10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2.93 | 2-3 | 20.0% | 7 | 11 | -5 |
| 9 | New Orleans Saints | 3.7 | 4-1 | 80.4% | 9 | 16 | -2 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Rams | 3.92 | 3-2 | 54.7% | 12 | 15 | -5 |
| 7 | Houston Texans | 4.08 | 3-2 | 54.0% | 6 | 14 | 5 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4.6 | 1-4 | 29.8% | 17 | 8 | 3 |
| 5 | Minnesota Vikings | 5.47 | 3-2 | 44.2% | 14 | 5 | 1 |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 6.25 | 4-0 | 79.9% | 10 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | 7.34 | 4-1 | 82.5% | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 7.71 | 4-1 | 91.4% | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| 1 | New England Patriots | 9.36 | 5-0 | 99.2% | 19 | 2 | 0 |
One team who has found themselves falling in our rankings after last week is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’s been a bit of a roller coaster ride for this Buccaneers team, who currently sits at a 2 - 3 record. They’ve won big games against the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams but have also lost to the New York Giants. A lack of consistency is the best way to put it, but the potential is there for this team.
The Buccaneers currently have the 10th-best nERD across the league right now (2.93) -- a metric that measures how many points above or below average a team is -- with an offense and defense that both rank within the top-12 across the league. They also have the top-ranked rushing defense in the league with a -0.18 Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. Should this team find some consistency in their game, they could start to string some wins together.
The San Francisco 49ers have been one of the most surprising teams this season, ranking fourth overall in our power rankings. They’re currently one of two teams left in the league who have yet to lose this season along with the New England Patriots. They’ve progressively made their way up our rankings all season, and rightfully so, as they've outscored their opponents 127 - 57 throughout their first four games.
The Niners defense currently have the top overall defense by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. They've been particularly good against the pass this season, leading the league with a -0.19 Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play.
The Niners are primed to finish the season strong, too, as they currently have the second-easiest remaining schedule to close out the 2019 season.