In today's NFL where passing is prevalent, grabbing a wide receiver who will put up top-10 numbers in your fantasy league has become fairly important. You'd like to get top-10 value later on in the draft, but let's face it, everyone loves high-volume wide receivers, and they typically start going in droves at the end of the second round of your fantasy draft.
Fitting that mold, according to FantasyFootballCalculator.com, both packers.com as well. Our AJ Weinberg dissected Cobb's 2012 breakout season in detail Packers depth chart has tight end impact of the Packers attempting to speed up their offensive pace to 75 offensive snaps a game. I'll be conservative and just consider any of that "gravy" for my analysis of Cobb.
The volume that Cobb figures to see (10 targets a game in his first four weeks of 2013), the weekly consistency, and Rodgers being an elite quarterback who trusts him all make Cobb my wide receiver of choice at the back-end of Round 2. Not Alshon Jeffery.
The Argument Against Randall Cobb
By graded as the best "go-route" runner in the entire NFL in 2013.
Another area where Jeffery will likely improve upon is his red-zone efficiency. Anyone who has watched Jeffery play, with his tremendous size and body control, would make the assumption that Alshon converts a large number of his red-zone targets. However, in what seems to be an aberration, Jeffery only converted 3 of 19 red-zone targets last year. If Jeffery is able to improve his efficiency inside the 20s, he'll flirt with double digit touchdowns, and will likely produce WR1 numbers once again.
There seems to be a perception that Jeffery’s numbers were a bit inconsistent, and will be hard to rely on. However, his top 12 reception (89) and target numbers (150) indicate that although Jeffery may have a few poor games, as all wide receivers do, he's a major part of the Bears' offense and will be an overall steady receiver. Over the last 10 weeks of the season, Jeffery was targeted at least seven times in each contest.
And while rookie Marquess Wilson was expected to take a bit of Jeffery’s targets, he just broke his clavicle in practice and could miss up to two months. Jeffery will once again be near the top of the league in targets, and will have no problem providing consistent fantasy value.
Overall, if Jeffery can continue to build chemistry with Cutler in training camp, he's in for another huge year. He's a big, physical receiver in the mold of the league’s elite and has the benefit of facing single coverage due to Brandon Marshall’s presence. Jeffery will once again post huge yardage and reception totals, and if he is able to convert on a higher percentage of his red-zone targets, he will leap into the top five fantasy receivers.
The Argument Against Alshon Jeffery
By Matt Goodwin
First, let me start by saying that Jeffery is a tremendous talent, and anyone who has two separate 200-yard games in the same season has my ultimate respect. However, I'd argue that you've seen his ceiling in 2013 when defenses weren't as worried about him and he broke out. So by virtue of you investing a late-second or third-round pick in someone who has some built in volatility to his stock price (more on that in a minute), you're essentially buying at the highest point.
My main arguments against Jeffery are two-fold. First, the sweat equity and trust built up between Cutler and Marshall while playing together on two separate teams, and second, the fact that Cutler is throwing Marshall the ball and not Rodgers, or even McCown, who Jeffery had arguably more success with - despite Joth's notion above - as our Brandon Gdula wrote about extensively in this article.
Basically, I'm taking the master of the obvious argument that Rodgers is way better than Cutler, and less injury prone too. The backup quarterback situation in Chicago isn't even mentionable for 2014, so let's just hope that we don't have to factor that into Jeffery's statistics. Let's table that though, and note that Jeffery had his best games of 2013 with McCown, especially from a touchdown perspective. Marshall played equally well with both quarterbacks, and Cutler clearly looks his way first.
As I mentioned before, especially as fantasy owners head to their fantasy playoffs, while I do like the "go-off" potential that Jeffery offers, I'd also want to make sure that Marshall's chemistry with Cutler doesn't cause my second- or third-round receiver (ostensibly the first one I'm drafting) to have a bad game when I need him the most. That's what I call consistency. How can you trust Jeffery when he has 249 yards and 15 targets one week, and has two games in 2013 with one reception apiece (albeit earlier in the 2013 season)?
Like Joth mentioned, I'm also not delighted by the fact that a 6'3, 215 pound wide receiver who excels at jump balls was so bad in the red zone last year, with 3 catches in 19 tries. That's a tough hurdle to overcome considering Cutler's history and trust with Marshall, as well as the offensive ability of running back Matt Forte and big red zone target Martellus Bennett. So that poor play in the red zone typecasts Jeffery into a deep-ball receiver, which while he's great at, but that becomes hard to predict success with. By virtue of that, he's basically an early third -round version of Michael Floyd at a much higher price.
I do like Jeffery overall, but if I'm picking a wide receiver in that vicinity, I'm going with Cobb all day or waiting and actually picking Floyd a few rounds later.