Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Table Terms
Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.
Quarterback
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % | Boom/Bust Ratio | 25+ FDP % | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | $9,200 | 23.87 | 77.2% | 1.45 | 45.3% | 29.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | $8,200 | 23.33 | 79.6% | 2.05 | 40.6% | 28.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | $8,400 | 21.86 | 73.9% | 1.32 | 35.3% | 27.3 |
| Matt Ryan | $8,100 | 20.98 | 73.6% | 1.23 | 28.7% | 25.8 |
| Kyler Murray | $7,700 | 20.72 | 76.2% | 1.58 | 26.9% | 25.7 |
| Dak Prescott | $8,000 | 19.54 | 67.8% | 0.81 | 22.4% | 24.4 |
| Jared Goff | $7,600 | 19.52 | 69.0% | 1.03 | 20.4% | 24.2 |
| Russell Wilson | $8,000 | 19.40 | 64.5% | 0.70 | 21.4% | 24.0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $7,200 | 17.43 | 66.4% | 0.90 | 16.8% | 22.9 |
| Gardner Minshew II | $6,900 | 17.29 | 67.2% | 1.02 | 15.5% | 22.6 |
| Carson Wentz | $7,500 | 16.90 | 61.0% | 0.62 | 15.1% | 22.2 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,000 | 16.75 | 62.5% | 0.74 | 13.3% | 21.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | $7,400 | 16.45 | 59.5% | 0.52 | 12.2% | 21.3 |
| Case Keenum | $6,500 | 15.82 | 64.4% | 0.84 | 11.9% | 20.5 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | $7,300 | 15.75 | 56.7% | 0.44 | 10.2% | 20.4 |
| Andy Dalton | $7,000 | 15.49 | 59.2% | 0.59 | 10.5% | 20.8 |
| Marcus Mariota | $6,500 | 15.08 | 59.3% | 0.67 | 9.4% | 20.1 |
| Joe Flacco | $6,600 | 14.52 | 58.1% | 0.58 | 8.8% | 19.6 |
| Sam Darnold | $6,700 | 14.05 | 53.8% | 0.49 | 7.2% | 19.2 |
| Josh Rosen | $6,400 | 12.80 | 50.8% | 0.38 | 4.4% | 17.8 |
Cash-Game Standouts
Spending down at quarterback is usually a fine cash-game strategy because we can pick matchups, but this isn't the best week for it. The top boom-to-bust performers (basically players with a high floor and a high ceiling) are Lamar Jackson ($8,200), Kyler Murray ($7,700), Patrick Mahomes ($9,200), Deshaun Watson ($8,400), and Matt Ryan ($8,100). They also rank as the five most likely to get to 20 FanDuel points. If you can't bear to spend up at quarterback in cash games, then Jimmy Garoppolo ($7,200) and Gardner Minshew ($6,900) boast the best floor/ceiling combinations.
Tournament Standouts
Shootouts could lead to big games for those expensive passers, and that's a scary thought when building around low-upside passers in the $6,000 range.
Still, if we use 75th-percentile outcomes rather than median outcomes -- so looking at realistically big games from passers -- the best values are Jackson, Murray, Minshew, Watson, Mahomes, and Jared Goff ($7,600). Minshew, of course, is the standout there at just $6,900. On a 10-game slate, it could pay off to take a chance on a lower-owned passer. Both Case Keenum and Marcus Mariota are $6,500 and still have 75th-percentile outcomes of at least 20 FanDuel points.
Running Back
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % | Boom/Bust Ratio | 20+ FDP % | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | $8,200 | 18.88 | 61.4% | 0.76 | 46.4% | 25.8 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,900 | 18.12 | 58.7% | 0.68 | 39.7% | 24.5 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $8,500 | 18.10 | 56.1% | 0.54 | 43.4% | 25.1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | $6,800 | 17.83 | 66.3% | 1.24 | 43.5% | 24.5 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,300 | 17.37 | 60.3% | 0.81 | 39.0% | 23.7 |
| Nick Chubb | $7,800 | 17.30 | 55.1% | 0.60 | 38.5% | 24.0 |
| David Johnson | $6,900 | 15.44 | 57.1% | 0.56 | 26.6% | 20.4 |
| Chris Carson | $7,200 | 14.73 | 52.2% | 0.43 | 26.9% | 20.3 |
| Derrick Henry | $6,700 | 13.76 | 53.2% | 0.53 | 24.9% | 20.0 |
| Todd Gurley II | $7,100 | 13.67 | 48.9% | 0.29 | 19.3% | 18.9 |
| Phillip Lindsay | $6,700 | 13.43 | 52.3% | 0.40 | 19.4% | 18.5 |
| Devonta Freeman | $6,600 | 13.36 | 49.8% | 0.44 | 21.4% | 18.9 |
| Mark Ingram II | $7,500 | 13.27 | 41.1% | 0.24 | 21.0% | 19.1 |
| Joe Mixon | $6,400 | 12.56 | 47.6% | 0.35 | 15.9% | 17.7 |
| Damien Williams | $6,600 | 11.73 | 42.9% | 0.26 | 14.6% | 17.2 |
| Kenyan Drake | $5,600 | 11.32 | 50.1% | 0.51 | 14.1% | 16.8 |
| Royce Freeman | $5,200 | 10.75 | 50.3% | 0.46 | 10.2% | 15.1 |
| Chris Thompson | $5,400 | 10.57 | 48.6% | 0.46 | 10.3% | 15.7 |
| Carlos Hyde | $6,000 | 10.16 | 38.5% | 0.24 | 9.7% | 15.0 |
| Adrian Peterson | $5,300 | 10.10 | 49.3% | 0.37 | 6.8% | 15.1 |
| Matt Breida | $5,900 | 9.90 | 39.3% | 0.23 | 6.3% | 14.8 |
| Tevin Coleman | $5,000 | 8.99 | 47.0% | 0.43 | 8.4% | 14.3 |
| LeSean McCoy | $6,400 | 8.80 | 26.3% | 0.07 | 4.0% | 13.0 |
| Miles Sanders | $5,700 | 8.54 | 33.9% | 0.17 | 5.8% | 13.4 |
| Duke Johnson | $5,300 | 8.31 | 35.9% | 0.16 | 2.7% | 12.5 |
| Jordan Howard | $6,200 | 7.93 | 24.5% | 0.07 | 2.9% | 12.3 |
| Ito Smith | $5,000 | 7.01 | 30.3% | 0.14 | 2.3% | 10.9 |
| Chase Edmonds | $5,200 | 6.03 | 26.2% | 0.11 | 2.2% | 10.6 |
| Giovani Bernard | $5,000 | 5.67 | 23.4% | 0.06 | 0.7% | 9.6 |
| Dion Lewis | $4,900 | 5.56 | 24.4% | 0.09 | 0.9% | 9.7 |
| Rashaad Penny | $5,400 | 5.18 | 15.4% | 0.02 | 0.3% | 8.9 |
Cash-Game Standouts
This could change on a whim depending on the status of Todd Gurley ($7,100) and David Johnson ($6,900), but as of now, the best boom-to-bust ratios of the week belong to Le'Veon Bell ($6,800), Leonard Fournette ($7,300), Dalvin Cook ($8,200), Alvin Kamara ($7,900), and Nick Chubb ($7,800). Spending down at running back will be enticing if we have cheap workhorses, but I'll still prioritize Bell, Fournette, and Cook this week if Gurley and/or Johnson were to miss, given their combinations of floor and ceiling.
If seeking non-injury-dependent cheaper plays, Derrick Henry ($6,700) would be a fine Sunday-morning pivot from Gurley and Johnson.
Tournament Standouts
Huge games from running backs are generally tied to huge workloads, so it's no surprise to see that the backs with at least a 27% chance to hit 20 FanDuel points are Cook, Bell, Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500), Kamara, Fournette, and Chubb. Elliott has yet to get there all season and isn't a cash-game priority at his slate-high tag, but his ceiling remains as high as anyone else's on the slate.
I'll always advocate spending up on running back in the majority of lineups on FanDuel, given the scoring format. Two backs who could go underowned but are best suited for tournaments rather than cash games are Henry at $6,700 with Johnson, Gurley, and Bell so close in price and also Chris Carson ($7,200), who is priced above all three of those backs in better positions. Carson is definitely overpriced but still is one of nine backs with at 75th-percentile outcome that gets him to 20 FanDuel points.
When seeking cheaper tournament plays that can differentiate your lineups, Kenyan Drake ($5,600) actually grades out well when using his 75th-percentile value. He's sixth on the slate. Royce Freeman ($5,200) ranks 10th.
Wide Receiver
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % | Boom/Bust Ratio | 15+ FDP % | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | $8,400 | 15.86 | 46.2% | 1.29 | 53.7% | 21.8 |
| Julio Jones | $8,500 | 15.57 | 42.9% | 1.18 | 52.5% | 21.0 |
| Michael Thomas | $8,200 | 15.30 | 46.8% | 1.48 | 53.8% | 20.5 |
| Cooper Kupp | $7,800 | 15.10 | 49.0% | 1.48 | 52.1% | 20.9 |
| Amari Cooper | $8,100 | 14.19 | 40.6% | 1.11 | 47.1% | 19.5 |
| Tyreek Hill | $7,400 | 14.09 | 46.0% | 1.24 | 44.6% | 19.5 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | $7,600 | 13.60 | 41.8% | 1.00 | 42.5% | 18.8 |
| Adam Thielen | $7,200 | 13.54 | 43.3% | 1.14 | 39.9% | 18.5 |
| Tyler Boyd | $6,400 | 13.48 | 52.0% | 1.60 | 40.7% | 18.4 |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,300 | 12.87 | 50.8% | 1.48 | 40.1% | 18.6 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | $5,600 | 12.48 | 55.4% | 1.73 | 35.9% | 17.0 |
| Robert Woods | $7,100 | 12.14 | 40.6% | 0.97 | 36.0% | 17.8 |
| Will Fuller V | $6,600 | 12.08 | 44.7% | 1.17 | 35.0% | 17.0 |
| DJ Chark Jr. | $6,500 | 11.72 | 43.6% | 1.06 | 33.0% | 16.9 |
| Terry McLaurin | $6,400 | 11.27 | 39.8% | 0.96 | 28.4% | 16.1 |
| Courtland Sutton | $5,900 | 11.22 | 48.2% | 1.30 | 32.1% | 16.5 |
| Sammy Watkins | $6,800 | 11.21 | 33.9% | 0.77 | 25.4% | 15.1 |
| Brandin Cooks | $6,500 | 11.12 | 40.0% | 0.88 | 29.1% | 16.0 |
| Jarvis Landry | $6,700 | 10.95 | 35.2% | 0.77 | 25.9% | 15.1 |
| Stefon Diggs | $5,800 | 10.81 | 47.5% | 1.31 | 26.4% | 15.4 |
| Alshon Jeffery | $6,400 | 10.74 | 39.3% | 0.92 | 26.7% | 15.3 |
| Michael Gallup | $6,100 | 10.52 | 41.2% | 0.97 | 26.2% | 15.2 |
| Calvin Ridley | $5,500 | 10.47 | 46.4% | 1.16 | 27.5% | 15.4 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $5,500 | 10.44 | 49.6% | 1.39 | 27.2% | 15.6 |
| Christian Kirk | $5,600 | 10.19 | 45.0% | 1.18 | 23.5% | 14.6 |
| Marquise Brown | $5,800 | 9.94 | 38.6% | 0.94 | 19.1% | 13.9 |
| Dede Westbrook | $5,400 | 9.90 | 44.9% | 1.15 | 21.6% | 14.2 |
| Jamison Crowder | $5,400 | 9.72 | 42.6% | 1.02 | 21.2% | 14.0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | $6,000 | 9.30 | 32.7% | 0.64 | 20.4% | 13.7 |
| Robby Anderson | $5,300 | 8.79 | 40.7% | 0.88 | 17.7% | 13.3 |
| Preston Williams | $5,600 | 8.61 | 32.7% | 0.63 | 13.9% | 12.6 |
| DK Metcalf | $5,800 | 8.40 | 33.0% | 0.66 | 14.6% | 12.8 |
| Auden Tate | $5,400 | 8.35 | 36.5% | 0.80 | 15.8% | 13.0 |
| Deebo Samuel | $5,400 | 8.07 | 33.3% | 0.67 | 13.4% | 12.4 |
| Corey Davis | $5,100 | 7.39 | 34.1% | 0.68 | 11.2% | 11.9 |
| Demarcus Robinson | $6,700 | 7.37 | 13.2% | 0.19 | 8.5% | 11.0 |
| DeVante Parker | $5,400 | 7.31 | 29.5% | 0.53 | 10.3% | 11.6 |
| Nelson Agholor | $5,100 | 7.27 | 30.5% | 0.59 | 9.2% | 11.3 |
| Paul Richardson Jr. | $4,700 | 7.19 | 38.8% | 0.82 | 10.5% | 11.5 |
| Trey Quinn | $5,100 | 6.88 | 30.5% | 0.55 | 9.4% | 11.2 |
| Marquise Goodwin | $5,200 | 6.86 | 26.7% | 0.47 | 7.5% | 10.7 |
| Demaryius Thomas | $4,800 | 6.82 | 32.4% | 0.60 | 9.5% | 11.0 |
| Mecole Hardman | $6,400 | 6.80 | 15.8% | 0.24 | 7.0% | 10.9 |
| KeeSean Johnson | $4,600 | 6.78 | 34.1% | 0.68 | 7.7% | 10.7 |
| Randall Cobb | $5,100 | 6.65 | 24.9% | 0.44 | 6.0% | 10.1 |
Cash-Game Standouts
The best boom-to-bust ratios belong to affordable options: Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600), Tyler Boyd ($6,400), Tyler Lockett ($6,300). Right behind them, though, are Cooper Kupp ($7,800) and Michael Thomas ($8,200). If looking for players who are the best bets to return 2x value outside of those, Emmanuel Sanders ($5,500) and Courtland Sutton ($5,900) pop for the Denver Broncos, as does Stefon Diggs ($5,800) at a really cheap tag. Calvin Ridley ($5,500) is riskier but still grades out well enough. It's worth noting that Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins ($8,400), Julio Jones ($8,500), Cooper Kupp, and Amari Cooper ($8,100) are the most likely wideouts to return at least 15 FanDuel points in case you build receiver-heavy cash-game lineups.
Tournament Standouts
Hopkins, Jones, Kupp, Thomas, and Tyreek Hill ($7,400) hit 25 FanDuel points in at least 10% of the simulated weeks if your goal is sheer upside. The best 75th-percentile outcome values -- so again, using a higher but still realistic range of outcomes for players and matching that to their salaries -- are from Fitzgerald, Lockett, Boyd, Sanders, Ridley, Sutton, Kupp, Diggs, Dede Westbrook ($5,400), and Hill.
Tight End
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % | Boom/Bust Ratio | 15+ FDP % | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $7,500 | 14.73 | 52.5% | 1.64 | 52.5% | 20.8 |
| George Kittle | $6,500 | 13.38 | 53.5% | 1.74 | 42.6% | 18.8 |
| Zach Ertz | $6,600 | 12.04 | 47.9% | 1.28 | 38.9% | 17.7 |
| Mark Andrews | $6,300 | 11.11 | 37.5% | 0.85 | 26.1% | 15.2 |
| Austin Hooper | $6,400 | 10.88 | 37.6% | 0.86 | 26.0% | 15.3 |
| Will Dissly | $6,000 | 9.40 | 34.6% | 0.70 | 18.9% | 13.8 |
| Delanie Walker | $5,200 | 7.68 | 35.1% | 0.76 | 12.0% | 11.9 |
| Jared Cook | $5,600 | 6.64 | 20.8% | 0.34 | 6.2% | 10.4 |
| Gerald Everett | $6,000 | 6.35 | 15.4% | 0.23 | 5.8% | 10.3 |
| Jason Witten | $5,000 | 6.32 | 27.0% | 0.47 | 7.2% | 10.3 |
| Vernon Davis | $4,800 | 5.51 | 24.2% | 0.39 | 4.9% | 9.4 |
| Tyler Eifert | $4,500 | 5.40 | 28.4% | 0.50 | 5.0% | 9.4 |
| Noah Fant | $4,500 | 5.15 | 26.1% | 0.44 | 3.6% | 9.1 |
| Geoff Swaim | $4,200 | 4.76 | 22.3% | 0.35 | 2.2% | 7.8 |
| Jordan Akins | $4,600 | 4.73 | 17.5% | 0.26 | 2.3% | 7.9 |
Cash-Game Standouts
George Kittle ($6,500) boasts the week's best boom-to-bust ratio at a fair price, but spending at least $6,000 is a sound strategy this week. Of the seven tight ends at or above that price, all but Gerald Everett ($6,000) are top-six in straight up median value and 75th-percentile value. Will Dissly is seventh in boom-to-bust ratio. (The cheaper tight end who fits that bill is Delanie Walker ($5,200), but his usage is trending down, and I anticipate spending up just about every chance I can.)
Tournament Standouts
Again excluding Everett, it's the six priciest tight ends with double-digit odds to get to 15-plus FanDuel points this week, headlined by Travis Kelce ($7,500), who got there in over half of the simulated weeks. Tight end almost always requires spending up for ceilings, but on a per-dollar basis, Tyler Eifert ($4,500), Jason Witten ($5,000), and Noah Fant ($4,500) round out the top-10 in value when examining the 75th-percentile outcome rather than the median outcome.