Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Table Terms
Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.
Quarterback
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % | Boom/Bust Ratio | 25+ FDP % | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | $8,400 | 21.2 | 32.3% | 1.13 | 33.3% | 26.8 |
| Matt Ryan | $7,900 | 21.1 | 36.4% | 1.56 | 30.1% | 26.0 |
| Russell Wilson | $8,500 | 21.1 | 29.6% | 1.03 | 32.1% | 26.5 |
| Josh Allen | $7,700 | 21.0 | 36.7% | 1.54 | 26.6% | 25.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | $8,300 | 21.0 | 30.1% | 1.16 | 29.6% | 26.2 |
| Kyler Murray | $7,700 | 20.8 | 37.5% | 1.57 | 29.1% | 26.0 |
| Jared Goff | $7,800 | 20.4 | 31.1% | 1.04 | 24.4% | 24.9 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $7,600 | 19.9 | 34.0% | 1.39 | 23.9% | 24.8 |
| Daniel Jones | $7,200 | 19.0 | 34.8% | 1.14 | 19.1% | 23.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $7,300 | 17.9 | 28.8% | 0.90 | 15.8% | 22.8 |
| Gardner Minshew II | $6,900 | 17.4 | 33.6% | 1.07 | 16.4% | 22.4 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $7,500 | 16.9 | 24.5% | 0.62 | 15.2% | 22.4 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,300 | 16.7 | 23.0% | 0.61 | 12.1% | 21.4 |
| Matthew Stafford | $7,300 | 16.2 | 20.6% | 0.51 | 10.5% | 20.9 |
| Andy Dalton | $6,900 | 16.0 | 28.8% | 0.77 | 12.1% | 21.6 |
| Philip Rivers | $7,600 | 16.0 | 18.0% | 0.38 | 10.3% | 20.9 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | $6,800 | 15.4 | 25.3% | 0.63 | 10.2% | 20.5 |
| Derek Carr | $6,500 | 14.9 | 24.4% | 0.57 | 7.3% | 19.3 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $6,400 | 14.6 | 27.3% | 0.63 | 8.7% | 19.7 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | $7,000 | 13.5 | 14.9% | 0.28 | 5.4% | 18.1 |
| Case Keenum | $6,600 | 12.5 | 14.6% | 0.27 | 3.6% | 17.3 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | $6,400 | 10.8 | 12.1% | 0.19 | 2.8% | 15.3 |
Cash-Game Standouts
- Quarterback is a little scary to me this week, but Kyler Murray ($7,700) has the right stuff and matchup and projections and junk to be my cash-game preference in a possible shootout with the New York Giants. The next four passers in terms of boom/bust ratio -- effectively: good games versus bad games -- are Matt Ryan ($00), Josh Allen ($7,700), Aaron Rodgers ($7,600), and Deshaun Watson ($8,300). Of note, Lamar Jackson ($8,400) ranks seventh in a road tilt with the Seattle Seahawks, an opponent that likes to run the ball plenty. The cheaper plays are Daniel Jones ($7,200) and Gardner Minshew ($6,900), who are sixth and eighth, respectively, in boom/bust ratio.
Tournament Standouts
- Jones is third in projected value when using the 75th-percentile outcome rather than the median outcome. Minshew is sixth. Other than that, it's the higher-floor passers who stand out most: Murray, Allen, Ryan, Rodgers, and Jackson. Jared Goff ($7,800) ranks eighth in 75th-percentile value. Of note, Watson is ninth and may have a higher floor than ceiling against an Indianapolis Colts team that can try to take the air out of the ball and grind clock.
If seeking pure upside regardless of price, the most likely passers to surpass 25.0 FanDuel points are Jackson, Russell Wilson ($8,500), Ryan, Watson, and Murray.
Running Back
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % | Boom/Bust Ratio | 20+ FDP % | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | $7,900 | 20.1 | 37.8% | 1.16 | 51.7% | 27.3 |
| Saquon Barkley | $8,600 | 18.6 | 26.3% | 0.59 | 44.7% | 26.3 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,300 | 18.2 | 23.8% | 0.53 | 40.6% | 24.6 |
| David Johnson | $7,400 | 16.9 | 28.2% | 0.67 | 36.3% | 23.3 |
| Chris Carson | $7,600 | 16.5 | 26.9% | 0.61 | 36.2% | 23.6 |
| Derrick Henry | $6,500 | 14.3 | 29.6% | 0.64 | 27.3% | 20.6 |
| Aaron Jones | $7,600 | 14.1 | 13.9% | 0.26 | 24.2% | 19.7 |
| Devonta Freeman | $6,400 | 13.6 | 24.1% | 0.53 | 20.8% | 18.7 |
| Kerryon Johnson | $6,800 | 13.4 | 18.9% | 0.36 | 20.8% | 19.1 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,800 | 13.1 | 6.4% | 0.10 | 15.5% | 17.9 |
| Josh Jacobs | $6,700 | 12.9 | 16.1% | 0.30 | 16.5% | 17.8 |
| Marlon Mack | $7,100 | 12.9 | 15.1% | 0.29 | 19.7% | 18.8 |
| Joe Mixon | $6,100 | 12.2 | 21.2% | 0.43 | 14.7% | 17.1 |
| Melvin Gordon III | $6,600 | 12.0 | 17.7% | 0.31 | 17.1% | 17.5 |
| Tevin Coleman | $6,200 | 11.7 | 21.9% | 0.43 | 18.7% | 17.6 |
| Mark Ingram II | $7,500 | 11.5 | 8.9% | 0.13 | 14.6% | 16.9 |
| Todd Gurley II | $7,100 | 11.4 | 7.2% | 0.11 | 10.8% | 16.5 |
| David Montgomery | $5,900 | 11.3 | 21.1% | 0.39 | 13.2% | 16.7 |
| Austin Ekeler | $6,900 | 11.2 | 8.6% | 0.13 | 9.9% | 15.5 |
| Frank Gore | $6,000 | 10.8 | 15.3% | 0.25 | 10.1% | 15.0 |
| Carlos Hyde | $6,300 | 10.2 | 11.0% | 0.17 | 8.4% | 15.2 |
| Matt Breida | $5,600 | 10.1 | 17.9% | 0.31 | 8.5% | 14.7 |
| Kenyan Drake | $5,400 | 9.9 | 23.1% | 0.43 | 10.3% | 15.5 |
| Jamaal Williams | $5,400 | 9.4 | 18.2% | 0.33 | 7.6% | 14.7 |
| Adrian Peterson | $5,700 | 9.4 | 12.9% | 0.21 | 5.7% | 14.0 |
| Devin Singletary | $5,800 | 9.0 | 11.8% | 0.18 | 5.7% | 13.6 |
| Tarik Cohen | $5,500 | 8.4 | 13.2% | 0.20 | 5.5% | 13.3 |
| Chris Thompson | $5,200 | 7.0 | 5.0% | 0.07 | 1.0% | 11.0 |
| Duke Johnson | $5,400 | 6.9 | 5.9% | 0.08 | 1.7% | 10.5 |
| Nyheim Hines | $4,800 | 6.5 | 8.6% | 0.12 | 0.6% | 10.4 |
| Latavius Murray | $5,300 | 6.5 | 6.3% | 0.08 | 1.2% | 10.7 |
Cash-Game Standouts
- Leonard Fournette ($7,900) is the top play in boom/bust ratio, median value, and 75th-percentile value. David Johnson ($7,400) and Derrick Henry ($6,500) are top three in each. Of the three, Fournette is my favorite. Johnson has injury concerns, but if he goes, he's clearly number two. Even with the simulations loving Henry, I don't think I'll be enticed even at his price. Of note, Chris Carson ($7,600) had a better floor/ceiling combo than Saquon Barkley ($8,600) when adjusting for price, but I'm locking Barkley and Fournette into cash games this weekend. If spending down, Devonta Freeman ($6,400) is the most interesting in terms of boom/bust potential.
Tournament Standouts
- Fournette and Barkley have enough upside for tournaments, but Dalvin Cook ($8,300) ranks third in 75th-percentile projections (6th in 75th-percentile value). The top three backs -- plus David Johnson and Chris Carson -- are the most likely to get past 20.0 FanDuel points. Spending up at running back and putting a pricey back in the flex makes a lot of sense this week for tournament lineups.
Among sub-$7,000 backs, the best 75th-percentile values belong to Freeman, Kenyan Drake ($5,400), Tevin Coleman ($6,200), David Montgomery ($5,900), and Kerryon Johnson ($6,800).
Wide Receiver
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % | Boom/Bust Ratio | 15+ FDP % | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | $8,200 | 16.1 | 52.0% | 1.68 | 57.7% | 21.9 |
| Cooper Kupp | $7,800 | 15.7 | 50.3% | 1.63 | 53.2% | 21.4 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $8,000 | 14.7 | 44.2% | 1.21 | 49.3% | 20.1 |
| Michael Thomas | $8,100 | 14.6 | 41.2% | 1.15 | 47.5% | 19.6 |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,500 | 13.8 | 54.1% | 1.72 | 44.1% | 19.6 |
| T.Y. Hilton | $7,600 | 13.6 | 43.8% | 1.11 | 44.5% | 19.6 |
| Keenan Allen | $7,500 | 13.2 | 39.6% | 0.95 | 39.6% | 18.4 |
| Adam Thielen | $7,100 | 13.1 | 44.6% | 1.20 | 40.7% | 18.0 |
| Robert Woods | $7,300 | 12.9 | 40.7% | 0.96 | 38.6% | 18.3 |
| Kenny Golladay | $7,100 | 12.6 | 40.0% | 1.00 | 36.1% | 17.1 |
| Tyler Boyd | $5,600 | 12.5 | 57.0% | 1.91 | 38.3% | 17.9 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | $5,600 | 12.2 | 55.6% | 1.75 | 33.6% | 17.4 |
| Stefon Diggs | $6,800 | 12.2 | 46.1% | 1.27 | 36.3% | 17.2 |
| DJ Chark Jr. | $6,600 | 12.0 | 45.1% | 1.21 | 36.8% | 17.3 |
| Brandin Cooks | $6,700 | 11.9 | 41.6% | 1.01 | 34.4% | 17.1 |
| Allen Robinson II | $7,000 | 11.9 | 40.0% | 0.94 | 35.1% | 17.1 |
| Davante Adams | $8,000 | 11.6 | 22.5% | 0.42 | 26.5% | 15.3 |
| John Brown | $5,900 | 11.4 | 47.5% | 1.32 | 29.9% | 16.2 |
| Will Fuller V | $6,300 | 11.4 | 43.7% | 1.09 | 31.8% | 16.4 |
| Terry McLaurin | $6,400 | 11.1 | 40.7% | 0.98 | 29.5% | 16.3 |
| Golden Tate | $6,100 | 10.7 | 42.2% | 1.02 | 28.9% | 15.9 |
| Calvin Ridley | $5,500 | 10.3 | 47.0% | 1.27 | 26.8% | 15.3 |
| Christian Kirk | $5,600 | 9.9 | 39.5% | 0.93 | 19.9% | 14.0 |
| Dede Westbrook | $5,400 | 9.8 | 41.4% | 1.00 | 20.7% | 14.0 |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | $5,600 | 9.8 | 42.0% | 1.03 | 21.7% | 14.5 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $6,300 | 9.5 | 31.6% | 0.63 | 19.8% | 14.1 |
| Mike Williams | $6,200 | 9.5 | 30.7% | 0.61 | 19.8% | 13.8 |
| Sterling Shepard | $6,500 | 9.4 | 26.5% | 0.52 | 15.3% | 13.2 |
| Mohamed Sanu | $5,500 | 9.3 | 40.4% | 0.94 | 20.7% | 13.9 |
| DK Metcalf | $6,200 | 9.2 | 34.0% | 0.70 | 20.1% | 13.9 |
| Cole Beasley | $5,600 | 9.1 | 38.4% | 0.83 | 18.4% | 13.5 |
| Auden Tate | $5,900 | 8.7 | 31.5% | 0.64 | 16.7% | 12.9 |
| Marquise Brown | $5,400 | 8.4 | 33.3% | 0.70 | 11.9% | 12.2 |
| Tyrell Williams | $5,900 | 7.9 | 23.7% | 0.42 | 8.1% | 11.6 |
| Corey Davis | $5,000 | 7.7 | 35.9% | 0.73 | 13.5% | 11.9 |
| Preston Williams | $5,100 | 7.5 | 35.0% | 0.70 | 12.7% | 12.0 |
| Geronimo Allison | $5,700 | 7.4 | 20.6% | 0.36 | 6.3% | 10.6 |
| Darius Slayton | $5,400 | 7.2 | 25.3% | 0.43 | 8.6% | 10.8 |
| Dante Pettis | $5,100 | 7.2 | 31.8% | 0.60 | 10.3% | 11.4 |
| Adam Humphries | $5,100 | 7.0 | 29.0% | 0.54 | 9.3% | 10.8 |
| A.J. Brown | $5,300 | 6.9 | 25.9% | 0.45 | 8.9% | 10.8 |
| Deebo Samuel | $5,300 | 6.7 | 25.9% | 0.45 | 7.4% | 10.7 |
| Willie Snead IV | $4,600 | 6.5 | 31.2% | 0.58 | 8.2% | 10.3 |
| Marquise Goodwin | $5,000 | 6.4 | 26.4% | 0.47 | 6.3% | 10.2 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $4,800 | 6.3 | 30.1% | 0.54 | 5.7% | 10.3 |
| DeVante Parker | $5,400 | 6.3 | 22.3% | 0.36 | 6.9% | 10.3 |
| Chris Conley | $4,600 | 6.2 | 30.2% | 0.54 | 8.2% | 10.3 |
| Taylor Gabriel | $4,800 | 6.1 | 23.8% | 0.40 | 3.5% | 9.4 |
Cash-Game Standouts
- Some cheap options at receiver will help spend up at running back if that's the plan you prefer. Tyler Boyd ($5,600), Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600), John Brown ($5,900), and Calvin Ridley ($5,500) grade out with top-seven boom/bust ratios, though my preference is Boyd by a mile in cash games, followed by Fitzgerald -- and even over Fitzgerald -- Christian Kirk ($5,600) if he plays. The sturdiest expensive receivers on the board are Julio Jones ($8,200) and Cooper Kupp ($7,800) in a potential shootout against one another.
Tournament Standouts
- Using the 75th-percentile outcomes -- so a realistic ceiling for a player compared to his FanDuel salary -- the best values are Boyd, Fitzgerald, Tyler Lockett ($6,500), Ridley, Brown, Kupp, Jones, D.J. Chark ($6,600), Golden Tate ($6,100), and Will Fuller ($6,300). I'm hoping recency bias limits the public perception on Fuller, as he actually had more air yards in Week 6 than he did in Week 5's explosion. Two cheaper plays still in the top 12 in this measure are Dede Westbrook ($5,400) and Marvin Jones ($5,600).
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000) has had some concerning peripherals but still grades out with a 49.3% chance to surpass 15.0 FanDuel points and a 25.4% chance to get to 20.0, ranking third in each. People may flock to Jones and Kupp after Hopkins' recent down games.
Tight End
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % | Boom/Bust Ratio | 15+ FDP % | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | $6,800 | 12.9 | 45.8% | 1.23 | 38.5% | 18.0 |
| George Kittle | $7,100 | 12.6 | 42.5% | 1.05 | 36.9% | 17.3 |
| Austin Hooper | $6,600 | 11.4 | 40.7% | 0.99 | 30.2% | 16.1 |
| Darren Waller | $6,200 | 11.2 | 43.8% | 1.16 | 28.2% | 15.5 |
| Mark Andrews | $6,700 | 11.1 | 38.1% | 0.87 | 29.0% | 15.7 |
| Hunter Henry | $5,700 | 9.4 | 39.2% | 0.90 | 20.4% | 13.9 |
| Jimmy Graham | $5,800 | 7.7 | 24.7% | 0.43 | 10.8% | 11.6 |
| Delanie Walker | $5,200 | 7.6 | 30.4% | 0.58 | 9.1% | 11.4 |
| Gerald Everett | $5,900 | 7.0 | 22.3% | 0.36 | 9.1% | 11.3 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $5,400 | 6.6 | 24.5% | 0.42 | 9.0% | 10.7 |
| Eric Ebron | $5,300 | 6.1 | 21.5% | 0.33 | 6.7% | 9.9 |
| Jack Doyle | $4,900 | 6.0 | 23.8% | 0.40 | 5.7% | 9.6 |
| Jared Cook | $5,800 | 5.9 | 15.3% | 0.22 | 5.7% | 9.7 |
| Tyler Eifert | $4,500 | 5.4 | 27.5% | 0.48 | 4.0% | 9.5 |
| Vernon Davis | $4,800 | 5.3 | 24.6% | 0.40 | 4.7% | 9.5 |
| Dawson Knox | $4,800 | 5.3 | 21.8% | 0.34 | 4.7% | 9.0 |
| Trey Burton | $4,800 | 5.1 | 21.0% | 0.33 | 3.3% | 8.9 |
Cash-Game Standouts
- As usual, the tight end pool is pretty shallow this week in terms of high-floor options. The five players priced above $6,000 -- George Kittle ($7,100), Evan Engram ($6,800), Mark Andrews ($6,700), Austin Hooper ($6,600), and Darren Waller ($6,200) -- are the five of the six best boom/bust plays, with Hunter Henry ($5,700) being the lone exception. The cheaper play with the best boom/bust ratio is Delanie Walker ($5,200), though I won't be using him in cash games and will prioritize Henry or Engram.
Tournament Standouts
- With tight ends, the high-floor plays are the ones with enough volume to project for high ceilings. Engram is the best play on the board in terms of 75th-percentile outcome value and also the top play by boom/bust ratio. Some other interesting pivots are Jimmy Graham ($5,800), Gerald Everett ($5,900), and T.J. Hockenson ($5,400) if seeking players with relatively high ceilings. Dawson Knox ($4,800) doesn't grade out well at all in the simulations, but he's a punt play option as a huge home favorite against the Miami Dolphins.