Every season has its share of hyped players, and one of those hyped players over the past two years has been as the 26th receiver this year, nestled somewhere near the middle of the sixth round.
The potential upside of players like more than any other receiver with at least 35 receptions last season. So is a low catch rate a terrible sign, or is it an unavoidable problem of being a down-the-field option and also a primary target in an offense?
Well, of the 37 players with 100 or more targets, there were some big names who had bottom-10 catch rates.
Player | Rec | Rec NEP | Targets | Target NEP | Rec NEP/Tar | CR | SR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A.J. Green | 98 | 127.49 | 178 | 21.97 | 0.72 | 55.06% | 87.76% |
Josh Gordon | 87 | 138.64 | 159 | 70.43 | 0.87 | 54.72% | 88.51% |
C. Johnson | 84 | 143.56 | 156 | 56.03 | 0.92 | 53.85% | 95.24% |
V. Jackson | 78 | 115.34 | 160 | 18.99 | 0.72 | 48.75% | 93.59% |
In the table above, "CR" is "Catch Rate" while "SR" is "Success Rate"
What separates Smith from these players then? After all, his Reception NEP per target (0.71) was very comparable to A.J. Green's (0.72) and Vincent Jackson's (0.72).
With only four receiving touchdowns last year, there's a good place to start looking: the red zone.
Trouble in the Red Zone?
We know Smith can go over the top quite frequently, but if he can't produce in the red zone, then his fantasy potential and overall potential as a well-rounded receiver is pretty capped. But Smith was actually better in the red zone than Josh Gordon last year, and wasn't too far off the mark from Green and Jackson.
2013 RZ Stats | Receptions | Targets | Catch Rate | TD | TD/Rec | TD/Tar |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Calvin Johnson | 10 | 13 | 76.92% | 7 | 70.00% | 53.85% |
A.J. Green | 9 | 21 | 42.86% | 4 | 44.44% | 19.05% |
Vincent Jackson | 8 | 18 | 44.44% | 4 | 50.00% | 22.22% |
Torrey Smith | 6 | 16 | 37.50% | 3 | 50.00% | 18.75% |
Josh Gordon | 5 | 18 | 27.78% | 1 | 20.00% | 5.56% |
If you rule out Calvin Johnson, then Smith compares well to the high-volume, low catch rate receivers of 2013. Of course this list is purposive and exclusive, for it matches up Smith with just the players who had similar drop rates and similar target totals, but these are some of the league's elite receivers, and Smith stacks up well with their red zone production.
And there's no sense in looking deeper into Torrey Smith's red zone production compared to Calvin Johnson's, right? Well, check out Smith's 2012 red zone stats against Johnson's 2013.
RZ Stats | Season | Receptions | Targets | Catch Rate | TD | TD/Rec | TD/Tar |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Calvin Johnson | 2013 | 10 | 13 | 76.92% | 7 | 70.00% | 53.85% |
Torrey Smith | 2012 | 7 | 10 | 70.00% | 5 | 71.43% | 50.00% |
I'd never confuse a Corvette (Calvin) with a Buick Skylark (Smith), but Smith has shown the ability to produce in the red zone at an impressive rate. It just happened that Marlon Brown stole all of that production last season. Brown had an astounding 7 touchdowns on 9 receptions and 13 targets, which was one reception shy of Megatron's exact 2013 red zone production.
Brown's role appears to be diminished with Dennis Pitta back and Steve Smith in town. Red zone targets wouldn't be guaranteed to Torrey, but he's proven that he can take advantage near the goal line in addition to making an impact in the vertical passing game.
How Smith Can Make the Jump
Last year, Joe Flacco was bad. Really, really bad. But JJ Zachariason discussed how Gary Kubiak could help turn things around in the passing game this year. If Flacco can manage a semblance of efficiency, then Smith would be in a position to improve on his stats for, really, the first time in his career.
He already finished as the 20th-best fantasy receiver last season despite a very poor passing campaign from Baltimore - the team finished 24th in Adjusted Passing NEP per play. He's now being drafted as the 26th receiver despite never finishing lower than 23rd in fantasy points at the position.
It's easy to get excited about the new crop of high-upside receivers being drafted around Smith's ADP, and it's understandable to prefer the more established veterans going before Smith, too. But Smith is a rare player with a surprisingly useful floor year in and year out and who possesses the tools to break inside the top-15 if he can add a few more of those red zone scores to his big play potential in an offense that should be in a position to outproduce the Ravens of 2013.