Every week in DFS, there is a player who comes out of nowhere to be the slate-breaker. These seemingly incognito players can be game-changers if you manage to roster them during the right week.
Tournament-only fliers have plenty of appeal, offering low ownership, below value pricing, cheap stacking options, roster flexibility and underrated ceilings. The purpose of this article is to identify dart throws to take your shots on during the main slate on FanDuel.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
FanDuel Salary $7,700
What if I told you there was a signal caller leading an offense with the highest situation neutral pace and over/under (52.0) of the week against a pass funnel defense? What if this same quarterback is projected for the third-most points but is priced down (eighth for the position) at only $7.7k? Would you be interested?
Luckily for you, Kyler Murray finds himself in just such an advantageous opportunity for a fantasy point outburst.
As a 4.5-point underdog on the road, Murray should see plenty of throw-first situations against a defense that sits at 22nd in numberFire's Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play. The rookie has finished as a QB1 in an impressive 44% of his starts so far this season and now gets arguably his best matchup of the year. No team has given up more passing yards than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have allowed a QB3 overall finish on average.
Tedd Ginn Jr., WR, New Orleans Saints
FanDuel Salary $5,400
When Ted Ginn Jr. glimpses across the line of scrimmage and see an Atlanta Falcons defense, he can't help but smile. The veteran speedster has to be licking his chops at the opportunity to duplicate his previous successful outings against the Dirty Birds. In the Superdome against Atlanta, Ginn averages five more fantasy points per game and a 0.5 increase in his receiving touchdown rate. Atlanta continues to be a utopia for opposing receivers, allowing an average finish of a WR2 overall over the last five games.
The New Orleans Saints are implied for the highest team total of the slate with 32.00 points, which will present Ginn with plenty of scoring opportunities. At a price of only $5,400, look for the cost-effective, deep threat to roast the Dirty Birds for Sunday dinner.
Curtis Samuel, WR, Carolina Panthers
FanDuel Salary $6,100
Receivers with a substantial gap between actual receiving yards and air yards are like a warming kettle of water on the stove. Curtis Samuel is ready to hit his boiling point, priming the play maker for a potential fantasy eruption. Amazingly, the Panthers wideout ranks 5th in air yards but only 39th in actual receiving yards. His production so far has been buoyed by touchdowns and a strong target share (20th).
Although a bout with a formidable Green Bay secondary will present the Panthers' passing attack with plenty of hurdles, Samuel remains an intriguing option. The last five games, WR1s facing the Green Bay Packers defense have averaged 8.2 targets, 5.7 receptions, and 117 receiving yards per game. No team has given up more yards per reception than the Packers' secondary, while Samuel stands at fourth in air yards per target.
Ronald Jones, RB, Tampa Bay Bucs
FanDuel Salary $6,300
It's not often that I tout Ronald Jones, but the second year pro finds himself in an ideal matchup to breakout. Against an Arizona Cardinals defense that ranks 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, Jones should see his first real start of the season. If you care to stroll down narrative street, head coach Bruce Arians continues to praise the former Trojan back's play, specifically his explosiveness in contrast to plodder Peyton Barber. Jones continues to trend in the right direction, and as Ben Gretch notes, the Bucs back saw a season high in routes run and snap rate.
The peripherals for this matchup also are enticing, as the game will feature the higher over/under (52.0) of the slate. The Buccaneers are favored by 4.5 points and are slotted for the second-highest implied team total of the week, which should equate to positive game script for Jones to exploit.
At only $6,300, Rojo is a cheap way to not only access a high scoring game but also lock in a low-owned running back who will allow for roster flexibility.
Chris Herndon, TE, New York Jets
FanDuel Salary $5,000
Coming off a four-game suspension and a nagging hamstring injury, Chris Herndon is flying completely under the fantasy radar. If the New York Jets tight end finally takes the field this week, he makes for an ideal dart throw given his minuscule $5K price tag and potential low ownership.
In the midst of the 2019 season, it's easy to forget how productive Herndon was as a rookie last season. With fellow rookie Sam Darnold slinging him the rock, Herndon ranked in the top-12 in touchdowns, yards per target, average target distance, production premium, and true catch rate (per PlayerProfiler). Despite being a first year player with limited snaps on an anemic offense, the former Hurricane finished as a TE1 on a strong 43% of his games played in 2018.
The New York Giants don't exactly strike fear into the hearts of their opponents. The Giants 24th-ranked pass defense by numberFire's metrics is fresh off allowing a strong game to the senior citizen and silver-tongued Jason Witten. If Darnold can recapture his chemistry with Herndon, then the second-year pro has sneaky upside worth sprinkling into your tournament lineups.
Nathan Coleman is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Nathan Coleman also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username nac89. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.