Yesterday, Kamran Khan took to our question boards and asked one of the fundamental questions of our time: Kolb or Skelton? OK, so maybe that question may end up falling somewhere between "Paper or plastic?" and "American Idol or X-Factor?" in terms of ultimate importance on your life, but to the Arizona organization, it's still a tough choice. According to the New York Post, Skelton holds the slight lead in the race. But according to the numbers, the Cardinals may be tending the wrong way in awarding the position of "Honorary Tebow vs. Sanchez, NEP is the number of points your team gains or loses with that particular player when compared to the average NFL team. Skelton's 2011 NEP number was slightly below average, coming in at -0.09 NEP per play. In simpler terms, that means that each of the 298 times Skelton went back to pass, his team lost an average of 0.09 points per attempt when compared to an average NFL team. On the season, that's a total of 26.61 points lost for the Cardinals due to Skelton being their quarterback. When compared to other full time starters, a number had a worse NEP per play percentage, including Tsutomu Yamaguchi-level luck: much of the Cardinals' 1-7 record as a starter can be attributed to the defense. He topped the Cardinals under Skelton's season-high 23 points on three separate occasions in his nine starts.
When looking at numberFire's preferred NEP metrics, however, Kolb starts to have a bit more of an advantage. On the season, Kolb averaged just -0.01 NEP per play on the season, meaning that he only performed decimal points worse than an average NFL QB. The Cardinals only lost 2.87 points in his 9 games started due to Kolb being in at quarterback. Kevin Kolb threw slightly less passes than his Fordham counterpart at 284 compared to Skelton's 298, but both numbers are high enough to be considered a legitimate sample size. This NEP per play number is not out of the ordinary for Kolb, either. In his three seasons with at least 50 passes thrown (one for Arizona, two for Philadelphia), Kolb has registered NEP per play numbers of -0.01, -0.04, and 0.08. For those of you too busy to be bothered to scroll back up the page, none of those numbers are as low as the -0.09 registered by Skelton last season.
The Verdict
It seems that Kolb is running out of favor as the chosen boy in the Arizona backfield, but there's no reason that he should be. Neither Kolb nor Skelton perform better than the average NFL QB, but the numbers say Kolb is at least closer to that middle point than Skelton is. This battle will likely come down to the final day of the preseason. I don't even think it should get that far.
Advantage: Kolb