Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson are more similar than you think. They both went to the University of Tennessee. They’re both 23 years old (Hunter is older by a little over two months). Hunter and Patterson are both in their second year in the National Football League, and only four picks separated the two players in the 2013 NFL Draft (Patterson went in Round 1, number 29 overall to Minnesota; Hunter went in Round 2, number 34 overall to Tennessee). Both are incredibly physically gifted athletes, too.
But there's one key difference that separates the two in fantasy football: their cost.
According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Cordarrelle Patterson is being drafted in the late-fourth round, while Justin Hunter is going in the 11th round. If the two players are so similar, then why is there such a massive difference in the cost to acquire the two commodities?
Well, not only is Justin Hunter a cheaper version of his ex-University of Tennessee teammate, he may actually be a better NFL wide receiver than Cordarrelle Patterson. Before we delve into our set a goal of 60 receptions. If he were to reach that reception total, a decline in efficiency will still make him one of the best play-makers in the NFL.
The “Big-Play Receiver†Fallacy
Don't get me wrong, Cordarrelle Patterson is definitely capable of being explosive. But last year, a good sum of his total fantasy points came from rushing (12 rushes, 158 yards, and 3 touchdowns). Those designed plays where Minnesota attempts to get him open in space are not only fairly volatile, but also tough to predict. What we want is some sort of consistency, and if given more volume, Justin Hunter will be more consistent than Cordarrelle Patterson given his prototypical skill set.
So I ask: why would you want to place your bets on a big-play wide receiver in the fourth round of your fantasy draft, when you can have a similar - perhaps even better - player in the 11th round? I’ll pass on Cordarrelle Patterson this year. Give me Justin Hunter every time.