On the Week 12 FanDuel main slate, there are four games with a total of 46-points or more, but it is projected to be a rather low-scoring week in general. There are, however, six teams implied to score at least 24 points this week, so it's not all bad.
In this article, I will reflect my favorite DFS stacks for this week. These decisions are made by using player projections, Vegas implied team totals and player ownership projections.
New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara ($8,300) and New Orleans D/ST ($4,900)
Outside of his performance back in Week 3 against the Seattle Seahawks, we haven’t seen Alvin Kamara put up the big fantasy numbers we’ve been accustomed to him producing since he entered the NFL in 2017. I think that changes this week.
The New Orleans Saints are playing the Carolina Panthers, who currently have the worst rushing defense in the NFL, per our numbers. They’re a run-funnel defense that is currently allowing opposing running backs to score an average of 26.1 FanDuel points per game -- the third most across the league.
Since returning from injury, Kamara has averaged 18.5 opportunities in his last two games. He’s also seen double-digit targets during each of those two games. He’s someone you can depend on in both the rushing and passing game.
Per our DFS Matchup Heat Map, the Saints’ are currently implied to score 28.00 points against the Panthers, the highest implied total of any team on the main slate. As 9.5-point home favorites, this is a dream matchup for Kamara.
I like stacking Kamara with the Saints’ defense. As big home favorites, this Saints D/ST should have plenty of opportunity to get after Panthers’ quarterback, Kyle Allen. Allen has struggled tremendously as of late, throwing nine interceptions over his last four games.
Philadelphia Eagles
Carson Wentz ($7,300) and Zach Ertz ($6,100)
Two other players who haven’t performed up to their fantasy expectations this season have been Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz and tight end Zach Ertz. But they, like Kamara, can change that this week against the Seattle Seahawks. The over/under in this game is currently 47.5-points - the second-most on the main slate – and it has the potential to go into a shootout.
Prior to the Eagles’ Week 10 bye, it was evident that this team wanted to get the Wentz/Ertz connection rolling again. In their Week 9 game against the Chicago Bears, Ertz saw double-digit targets (11) for just the second time this season. He finished that game with 9 catches, 103 receiving yards and one touchdown. That trend continued after their bye week, when the Eagles played the New England Patriots. Ertz saw another 11 targets against the Pats and finished the game with 9 catches and 94 receiving yards.
We can expect Ertz to continue to see big-time volume this week.
Per our DFS projections, we currently have Wentz projected to be the fourth-highest scoring quarterback on the main slate. He’s also projected to bring the second-best point-per-dollar value of any quarterback. Compare that to the FanDuel pricing -- 13th most expensive quarterback -- and you’ll find that Wentz is an absolute steal at his salary this week.
Ertz is also projected to have a great game against the Seahawks, and we currently have him projected to be the highest-scoring tight end on the main slate, forecasting him to pace the position in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns.
New York Jets
Sam Darnold ($7,400) and Robby Anderson ($5,400)
This stack might be come as a surprise to some, but it’s going to be my contrarian stack of the week. Per PFF’s ownership projections, Sam Darnold is currently projected to be owned in 0.37% of FanDuel lineups this week, while Robby Anderson is projected to be owned in 1.84% of lineups. Getting both players at less than 2% ownership will allow for you to build some contrarian lineups. On top of that, both players are cheap, giving you the cash to pay up elsewhere.
While it’s encouraging that both of these players are projected to be low owned at a low price, we still want them to perform at a high level if we plan on having any success with these lineups. I do think both Darnold and Anderson are in spots to succeed this week against the Oakland Raiders. Per our schedule-adjusted metrics, the Raiders’ passing defense currently ranks 27th.
Darnold is coming off his best game of the season in which he threw for 293 yards and four passing touchdowns against Washington, whose passing defense currently ranks 30th. Darnold will have a very similar matchup this week against the Raiders.
Anderson is not coming off his best game of the season, but he has left a lot of fantasy points on the field. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Anderson is currently seeing 35.19% of his team’s air yards, which ranks in the top 15 of all receivers this season. That puts him in the mix with Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins and Kenny Golladay, who are all seeing 34% to 36% of their team’s air yards.
Positive regression is in the works for Anderson, who is also seeing 19.87% of his teams targets, the second-most of any Jets’ player.
Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matt Ryan ($7,900), Julio Jones ($8,400) and Mike Evans ($8,000)
The last stack for Week 12 that I like is a game stack between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You can run this stack in several different ways, but my favorite is with Falcons’ quarterback Matt Ryan stacked up with Julio Jones, and then bringing it back with Mike Evans.
The Bucs’ passing defense has been one to target all season. They’re currently allowing 23.7 FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks this year, the second most across the league. They’re also allowing a league-high 39.2 FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers this season. The matchup doesn’t get much better for Ryan and Jones.
Per our projections, we currently have Ryan forecasted to be the highest-scoring quarterback on the main slate. We have him projected to throw for over 300 yards and 2.31 passing touchdowns -- tops among quarterbacks in both categories. While the Falcons and Bucs have yet to play this season, Ryan decimated this Bucs’ pass D last season in their two matchups, averaging 366.5 passing yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns. While this isn’t the same Bucs pass defense from last season, one could argue that they’re even worse in 2019.
Pairing Ryan with his best receiver makes sense this week. Jones should have a field day with this Bucs secondary. In his two meetings with Tampa Bay last season, Julio averaged 9.5 receptions, 141 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns. Per PFF’s wide receiver/cornerback matchup chart, Jones is set to line up against Bucs’ cornerback Carlton Davis. Jones has a 13% matchup advantage against Davis and should feast here.
I like running this stack back with Evans. While I wouldn’t be opposed to rostering Chris Godwin, I do like the matchup that Evans has slightly better than Godwin's matchup. Evans should see against Falcons cornerback Isaiah Oliver, and he has a 17% matchup advantage over Oliver, per PFF, the seventh highest advantage of any receiver on the main slate.
The over/under in this game is currently set at 51.5-points, the highest total on the main slate. This game has shootout written all over it, which could lead to several high-scoring players on both sides.
Griffin Swanson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Griffin Swanson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username GriffDogg_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. (edited)