Hovering near the turn between the second and third rounds of fantasy drafts is a young running back who's posted 1,000-yard seasons each year he's been in the NFL. He's a true workhorse - a rare back who's averaged over 300 carries, 4.7 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns per season over his career. He has yet to miss a game during his brief NFL tenure, but Washington Redskin Early camp reviews of Morris' pass catching ability have been glowing, too, as perhaps Washington aims to make their former Pro Bowl running back more multidimensional.
Can a Dismal 2013 Be Turned Around?
Washington struggled in 2013, but there were some bright spots for the offense. FantasyFootballCalculator.com in standard 12-team leagues.
| Player | Games Played | Rushing Yards | Rush TD | Receiving Yards | Rec. TD | Total Yards | Total TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 16 | 695 | 5 | 514 | 3 | 1209 | 8 |
| Arian Foster | 7 | 542 | 1 | 183 | 1 | 725 | 2 |
| Alfred Morris | 16 | 1275 | 7 | 78 | 0 | 1353 | 7 |
| Doug Martin | 6 | 456 | 1 | 66 | 0 | 522 | 1 |
| Zac Stacy | 13 | 973 | 7 | 141 | 1 | 1114 | 8 |
With the varying amounts of games each of these running backs played last year, it may be more efficient to compare how well they each did running the ball from an efficiency standpoint.
| Player | Rush NEP | Rush NEP per Rush | Rec NEP | Target NEP | Total NEP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | -6.75 | -0.04 | 32.45 | 20.19 | 25.7 |
| Arian Foster | 0.52 | 0.00 | 7.12 | -4.91 | 7.65 |
| Alfred Morris | -4.15 | -0.02 | 0.95 | 2.04 | -0.20 |
| Doug Martin | -12.64 | -0.10 | -0.12 | -8.99 | -4.92 |
| Zac Stacy | -10.41 | -0.04 | 5.49 | 0.42 | -12.96 |
Positive NEP scores are hard to come by for running backs. Out of the 47 running backs that surpassed 100 carries last year, only 18 of them had positive Rushing NEP scores. Coincidentally, the backs listed 11th through 15th also aligned with numberFire's Total NEP. Gruden's former disciple, Giovani Bernard, led the group in Total NEP, but could be challenged for carries by rookie Jeremy Hill as Bernard enters his sophomore year.
Arian Foster only played seven games, yet showed he's not ready to be given up on quite yet as he was the only back to post a positive Rushing NEP. Doug Martin failed to live up to his high billing last year, as he only posted a top-15 fantasy week twice before an injury cut short his season after six games. Lastly, Zac Stacy enters perhaps the most challenging division in the NFC West after a promising rookie season, but posted the lowest Total NEP of the group.
Each of the five running backs outside the top-10 could all be interchangeable depending on drafters' preferences. They each have questions entering the season, but none have put up quite the historic numbers that Morris has.
Can Morris return to his 2012 lofty status?
In 2012, Morris was the fifth best fantasy running back, but dropped to 15th in 2013 after a disappointing season by the entire team. The negativity pertaining to Morris' draft stock is merely reflective of the public's thoughts on Washington as a whole after a poor season. However, Morris is one of only nine running backs in NFL history to rush for 2,888 yards over the first two seasons of their career. With a healthy RGIII back in the pocket threatening defenses with Washington's read-option and play-action, Morris' numbers should rise back to their 2012 status.
With the scarcity of lead backs and consistent weekly fantasy producers, Morris' floor is one of the safest of the backs being chosen in his range. He was second in the league in rushing in 2012, and in a "down year", he placed fourth in 2013. While his reception upside is limited, you're getting a proven back capable of eclipsing the 1,000 yard mark where other backs questions of time share and health come into play. Considering the high risk among RB2s when spending a premium pick, wouldn't it be safest to pick the player most likely to live up to his expectations?