It was a surprise to almost all when glossary).
Here’s how Crabtree ranked in Reception NEP, Reception NEP per target, and Target NEP in 2011 and 2012. Keep in mind that 2013 is omitted because he missed a giant part of the season:
| Reception NEP | Reception NEP per Target | Target NEP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 32nd | 25th | 33rd |
| 2012 | 15th | 8th | 11th |
Note: The per target number above is amongst receivers with 100-plus targets
Notice that he made a massive leap in each of these categories from one season to the next. This is no coincidence, as 2012 was the first year Jim Harbaugh coached the 49ers, and is also the first season Crabtree got extensive work with Kaepernick.
His finishes in the various NEP-based categories in 2012 are absolutely impressive. His 103.89 Reception NEP put him 15th in the league, but the efficiency through which he amassed this number is arguably an even greater feat.
His Reception NEP per target in 2012 was 0.82, efficiency that was greater than that of household names like FantasyPros.com ADP list.
Crabtree is the 45th player overall on our board for a standard, non-PPR 12-team league. This is valuable information given that Crabtree can be had later than that in many drafts. Look at his ADP on various websites:
| ESPN | MyFantasyLeague | Yahoo! | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP | 56.9 | 48.3 | 47.6 |
He seems to be a pretty strong value in ESPN leagues, and you won’t have to reach for him on the other two sites. Crabtree makes for a strong and relatively safe option in 2014. Per our Confidence Interval, which is essentially a floor to ceiling projection each player is given by numberFire, only 12 wideouts have a higher floor than Crabtree and only nine have more upside. That's the kind of low risk-high reward combination you look for in early-mid round picks.
If you’re in the market for a low-end wide receiver one or high-end wide receiver two on draft day, confidently select Michael Crabtree.