As you know, we like math here at numberFire. Our algorithms help tell a better story about sports -- they're able to dig through the nonsense, helping us look at things that matter on the court, field or rink.
With football, we love our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which measures the number of points a player adds (or loses) to his team versus what he's expected to add. Rather than counting statistics like yards, touchdowns and receptions, NEP looks at down-and-distance situations and field position and relates these instances to history. When a player outperforms what's happened in the past, he sees a positive expected points value on the play. When he doesn't, his expected points value gained on the play is negative. All of these little instances add up, then, to be a player's Net Expected Points total.
You can read more about NEP in our glossary.
Using a formula that compares individual single-game performance to history, the numberFire Live platform takes this Net Expected Points formula and assigns a rating to a player's performance. Each week, that's what we'll show here -- the 20 best ratings.
Here are Week 13's results:
| Player | Position | Passing NEP | Rushing NEP | Reception NEP | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | WR | — | — | 19.22 | 100 |
| Kenny Golladay | WR | — | — | 15.63 | 99 |
| James White | RB | — | 0.83 | 9.19 | 99 |
| Derrius Guice | RB | — | 9.26 | -0.34 | 98 |
| Jared Goff | QB | 23.78 | — | — | 97 |
| Alshon Jeffery | WR | — | — | 13.38 | 97 |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 18.42 | 2.05 | — | 95 |
| Robert Woods | WR | — | — | 12.11 | 93 |
| Julian Edelman | WR | — | 0.57 | 11.36 | 93 |
| Anthony Miller | WR | — | — | 11.47 | 91 |
| Duke Johnson | RB | — | -0.52 | 6.29 | 89 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | 17.01 | -0.34 | — | 89 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | — | — | 10.67 | 87 |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | 15.55 | — | 1.77 | 87 |
| Mike Williams | WR | — | — | 10.60 | 87 |
| Raheem Mostert | RB | — | 6.07 | -0.80 | 87 |
| Zach Pascal | WR | — | — | 10.38 | 86 |
| Josh Allen | QB | 8.93 | 5.95 | — | 86 |
| Cole Beasley | WR | — | — | 10.35 | 86 |
| Adrian Peterson | RB | — | 4.82 | — | 84 |
- DeVante Parker has been silly good in recent weeks, and he balled out in a Miami Dolphins win. His 10 targets led to 159 yards and 2 touchdowns, good for 19.22 Reception NEP, the fourth-highest single-game tally of the entire season.
- Kenny Golladay kicked off the week with a huge touchdown on Thanksgiving Day, though his Detroit Lions couldn't earn the victory. Golladay ended with 158 yards and a touchdown on just 5 targets in a matchup with the Detroit Lions. All five of his targets traveled at least 16 yards downfield.
- James White was a late addition to the list in a comeback bid against the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football. White totaled 177 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 touches while playing nearly 85% of the snaps.
- Derrius Guice had only 10 carries but accounted for 129 rushing yards and a pair of scores against the Carolina Panthers in another win for Washington. Guice barely topped a 30% snap rate, however, and has been limited in a committee since his return.
- Jared Goff, pretty much left for dead, took advantage of only his fourth matchup against a below-average pass defense all season. Goff racked up 424 passing yards and 2 touchdowns against the Arizona Cardinals. Goff posted 0.54 Passing NEP per drop back, the third-best single-game rate on the full season among passers with at least 40 drop backs.