NFL
Why Davante Adams Could Have an Immediate Impact in 2014
Rookie receivers who produce significantly are very rare, but Adams could thrive in Green Bay's offense.

Sometimes, too much of a good thing can end up being a bad thing. But when that good thing is so good, sometimes it just doesn't matter.

That pretty much summates the Green Bay Packers offense this year. Our math he hasn't shown much improvement from last season to this season. However, Adams is struggling to put away passes that could help him leapfrog into the starting line-up.

Meanwhile, Janis has utilized his superior athleticism to be the most impressive of the young trio so far for the Packers. He is, though, struggling with consistency.

Could Adams, then, be the one to emerge as the main benefactor as a guy getting consistent targets from one of the best quarterbacks in the league? There's a very good reason to think so.

Adams' Collegiate Production

Adams was a monster for Fresno State in 2013. He led the NCAA in receptions (131), touchdowns (24), and was second in yards (1,719). He scored eight more touchdowns than the second-leading touchdown-getter, CFBstats.com.

SplitsGRec.YardsAvg.TDRec./GYards/GTD/G
vs. FBS Winning55066013.20910.0132.01.8
vs. FBS Non-Winning776102813.531410.9146.92.0

Adams was consistent in his sophomore year. He recorded at least eight receptions in 11 of his 13 games (including a bowl game). He failed to catch a touchdown just once, and it was one of the games he was held to five receptions.

Projecting a player's success from the MWC to the NFL doesn't quite cut it, but Adams scored touchdowns like a professional last year, mirroring the pace set by one of Rodgers' old teammates.

James Jones 2.0

Rodgers was able to turn Jones, a 6'1'', 208-pound receiver into a double-digit touchdown scorer. In 2012, Jones racked up a league-leading 14 touchdowns on 64 catches. The good new for Adams is that he is bit heavier than and quite comparable to Jones in athleticism.

PlayerHt.Wt.40-Yd20-Yd10-YdVert.Broad20-Yd Sh.3-Cone
Davante Adams6-12124.562.591.6439.510-34.36.82
James Jones6-12084.542.651.5434.09-114.27.06

Jones performed better than did Adams in the 40- and 10-yard dashes as well as the 20-yard shuttle, but Adams posted better results in every other drill, including a significantly higher vertical leap and a sizable gap on the broad jump.

Both of them were successful touchdown scorers in college in their final seasons. So was Janis, who played at Saginaw Valley State, a Division II school. Boykin, a Virginia Tech Hokie, had the fewest shares of production but did play on the most talented team of the quartet.

Here's the breakdown of how much these receivers accounted for their collegiate teams in the players' final seasons in school.

Production PercentageYearReceptionsYardsTD
James Jones200637.84%38.76%45.45%
Davante Adams201328.42%33.48%48.00%
Jarrett Boykin201125.10%21.19%23.81%
Jeff Janis201337.39%45.32%45.16%

Again, Boykin played in an offense that wasn't dominated by one receiver, and he wasn't even the leading receiver on the Hokies. But he's the only one of the three guys fighting for the third spot without a proven history of producing touchdowns. Boykin never scored more than six touchdowns in college despite playing four years, and he racked up just three last year even in an abbreviated season from Cobb.

I'm not implying that he can't emerge as an elite touchdown scorer, but I am pointing out that he has the least impressive touchdown-scoring pedigree of the Adams-Boykin-Janis trio in addition to being, based on combine results, the least athletic of the group.

Can Adams Take Control?

All signs indicate that it's Boykin's job to lose, but his combine results indicate he's less athletic than either Adams or Janis. And he has never really been a touchdown scorer in college or in the NFL to date.

If Adams is able to steady his hands and if Rodgers is reminded of James Jones, then he could be the third option in the offense sooner rather than later. Our READ algorithm isn't very high on Adams to say the least (comparing him to Greg Little), but Adams did score four times as many touchdowns (24) in his sophomore year as Little had in his three years at North Carolina (6).

Nobody is a lock for that third receiver spot in Green Bay, but whoever it is should be in for a pretty big season -- especially if it's a touchdown scorer like Adams or Janis.

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