On the Week 14 FanDuel main slate, there are four games projected for an over/under of 47-points or more, but it’s looking to be a rather low scoring week in general. There are, however, seven teams projected to score at least 25-points this week, which should lead to some high scoring players.
In this article, I will reflect my favorite DFS stacks for this week. These decisions are made by using player projections, Vegas implied team totals and player ownership projections.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones ($7,800) and Green Bay D/ST ($5,000)
One of the two largest spreads this week is between Green Bay and Washington. The Packers are currently 13.0-point home favorites and are implied to score 27.25 points. This is a perfect game script for Packers’ running back Aaron Jones, who has shown he’s capable of putting up huge fantasy numbers this season. Jones has scored multiple touchdowns in four different games this season, all of which came in games where the Packers scored at least 24 points.
Jones will be facing a Washington run defense that sits 20th in the league, per our numbers. They’ve allowed 131.6 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season, which ranks as the sixth-most.
Jamaal Williams has cut into Jones’ playing time as of late, but Jones is still dominating in red zone rushing attempts this season. Through the first 12 games, Jones has seen 66.67% of Green Bay's red zone carries, compared to Williams’ mark of 26.19%. While Jones’ snaps have trended downwards with a healthy Williams on the field, it’s safe to say that Jones is still the Packers go-to guy when they get into the red zone, and you can expect the Packers to be in the red zone a lot come Sunday.
Stacking Jones with the Packers D/ST makes a lot of sense. There are 13 games on the FanDuel main slate this week, and Washington is currently implied to score 14.25 points, the lowest of any team. Dwayne Haskins has thrown just two passing touchdowns this season, compared to six interceptions, and if Green Bay gets up big, it means more chances for picks and sacks for this defense.
Houston Texans
Deshaun Watson ($7,700) and Will Fuller ($6,600)
After coming off a big win against the New England Patriots, the Houston Texans have a good shot to keep it going in Week 14.
I like stacking Deshaun Watson with Will Fuller in this matchup. While it may not look like the best matchup on paper for Watson, facing a Broncos defense that has allowed just 13.8 FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks, Watson is far too talented to be completely shut down. He proved that last week against the Pats, who had allowed a league-low 11.2 FanDuel points per game to signal callers. Watson finished with 28.36 FanDuel points last week, his fourth-highest scoring fantasy game all season.
Per PFF’s wide receiver/cornerback matchup chart, the Texans’ number-one receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, is expected to be shadowed by Denver Broncos’ cornerback Chris Harris, and Nuk has just a 3% advantage over him. Fuller, on the other hand, is expected to line up against Will Parks, and he has a 15% advantage. That’s a matchup the Texans should be looking to exploit.
Per Next-Gen Stats, Fuller has seen an average of 14.4 air yards per target this season, which ranks as the 12th-most across the league. This is a player who has the potential to blow up in any game based on his opportunity and air yards, and this week looks like one when Fuller might have a ceiling games.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) and Tyreek Hill ($8,300)
One of the likely contrarian stacks I’ll be targeting this week will be Patrick Mahomes paired with Tyreek Hill. You might be thinking there’s no way Mahomes and Hill are contrarian this week, let alone any other week, but they may go overlooked this week.
The reason being is because they’re playing New England on the road. Per our schedule-adjusted metrics, the Pats’ passing defense currently ranks second, and they have shut down opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers nearly all season.
But we’re talking about Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill -- two guys who are essentially matchup-proof. Per PFF’s ownership projections, Mahomes is projected to be less than 6% owned in FanDuel lineups this week, while Hill is projected to be in less than 4% of lineups. Any time you can get these guys at below 10% ownership, you should be considering them in GPPs.
Per our DFS projections, we currently have Mahomes projected to be the third-highest scoring quarterback on the main slate. He’s projected to throw for 330 passing yards, the most of any quarterback on the main slate, and 1.85 passing touchdowns. Should this game go over the 48.5-point over/under, Mahomes’ numbers could go well beyond what we have him projected for.
Similarly, we have Hill projected to be the third-highest scoring wide receiver on the main slate. He’s forecasted for 99.33 receiving yards -- the second most of any receiver -- and 0.54 receiving touchdowns, the fourth most among wideouts. He, like Mahomes, can go well beyond these projections in any given matchup.
When the Chiefs played the Pats in New England last season, they lost by a score of 43-40. In that game, Mahomes threw for 352 passing yards and four touchdowns. Hill finished the game with 7 receptions, 142 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns. While it will be hard to replicate those numbers come Sunday, it’s not crazy to think Hill and Mahomes could hit for a couple huge scoring plays.
Cleveland Browns
Baker Mayfield ($7,600) and Jarvis Landry ($7,200)
The last stack I want to highlight this week is with the Cleveland Browns. While this team’s playoff hopes for 2019 have essentially come to an end, they’re in a get-right spot this week at home against the Cincinnati Bengals.
I like pairing Baker Mayfield with Jarvis Landry in this matchup. The chemistry between these two has grown in each game this season, and they have a chance to build on that this week against a Bengals team that's defense currently ranks as the fifth-worst in the league this season, per our schedule-adjusted metrics.
In his two games against Bengals last season, Mayfield was a beast. He combined for 542 passing yards and seven passing touchdowns in two outings, resulting in two of his best games of last season. Albeit in a small sample size, Mayfield’s success against the Bengals is nothing to overlook.
Since the Browns’ Week 7 bye, Landry has seen double-digit targets from Mayfield in all but one game -- against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12, when Landry saw 7 targets. Landry also reeled in five receiving touchdowns over that six-game span.
Heading into Week 14, Landry leads all Browns receivers in red zone target share this season with a 30% rate. This has translated to him leading the team in receiving touchdowns, as well.
Cincy has been a defense to target all season, and we should keep attacking them this week.
Griffin Swanson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Griffin Swanson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username GriffDogg_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. (edited)