NFL
Why Russell Wilson Is Insanely Undervalued in Fantasy Football
Third-year quarterback Russell Wilson is your ticket to significant upside, all with a known floor.

I'm fairly new to Twitter. I'm mainly on it for fantasy football purposes, to further my awareness as a writer to others, and to see what the fantasy football community is thinking.

I honestly never thought I'd get an idea for an article from it.

Then, yesterday morning, I found myself going back and forth on Twitter with fellow numberFire contributor, FantasyFootballCalculator.com. Graham was insistent that he loves Harvin, but can't justify the injury risk at such a high cost. And then it hit me: the best way to mitigate Harvin's injury risk and snag his upside is simple: draft FantasyFootballCalculator.com, Wilson is coming off of draft board at pick 10.03, or as the 15th quarterback taken in fantasy drafts.

It appears as though folks believe Wilson has a limited ceiling. There seems to be two likely culprits for this: the Seahawks' propensity to run the ball, and Harvin's propensity to get injured.

However, both of these arguments are somewhat flawed. First, the Seahawks relied on their stellar defense and unstoppable running game out of necessity in Wilson's first two years. The defense has lost a few pieces upfront due to salary cap moves to keep the core intact in the secondary, and they may not be as effective as in 2013 (though they are looking very solid thus far).

Seattle led the NFL in carries with 509 a season ago, and their pass-to-run ratio was second-lowest in the NFL. The addition of Harvin should even that out some, getting Wilson's attempts up from 2013. Additionally, we already know what Wilson's floor is without Harvin and with a run-focused approach: a top-5 to -10 quarterback. He also has an ambitious goal this season, as he wants to to complete 70% of his passes in 2014.

When you add in the "noise" that Harvin potentially creates by his elite speed and motion on the field, the game gets simpler for Wilson as his options become more bountiful. I witnessed this first hand at the Seahawks-Bears game last Friday night, and it's best summed up here by The Seattle Times' Jerry Brewer.

Brewer notes that, now with Harvin and their offensive personnel spreading out opposing defenses, a defense has to choose between stopping the power running game or the passing game. And when they focus on, say, stopping the run, Wilson is able to thrive in the passing game. If they play against the pass, Wilson's ability to run - as shown by his Rushing NEP metrics above - allows for fantasy points to continuously be had.

Russell Wilson's 2014 Projection

Here at numberFire, we aren't skittish about making projections. To that end, our fantasy projections have Wilson right to compare his quarterback to Brett Favre. Or maybe he's even selling him short.

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