For a player who’s relatively under-the-radar, glossary).

Below is a table showing how Williams performed in Reception NEP, Target NEP, and Reception NEP per target in each of his first four years in the league:

The way he managed to produce as a rookie is nothing short of extremely impressive. To be amongst the top 20 receivers in Reception NEP - a measure of points added on all catches - is an accomplishment in any season, let alone as a rookie fourth-rounder. His efficiency on a per target basis was nothing superb, as his catch rate of 51.2% was below average, but as a rookie it’s hardly anything to complain about.

He took a sizable step back in 2011. His Reception NEP fell to a more mediocre, yet still respectable, mark, but his efficiency fell down to the dumps. His catch rate marginally improved to 52.4%, and with his touchdown total decreasing from 11 down to 3, his numbers were bound to drop across the board. Some of his poor performance can be chalked up to the quarterbacking in Tampa Bay, as the team finished ninth in the league in Adjusted Passing NEP (adjusted for strength of schedule) in 2010, but dropped to 25th the year following.

His 2012 season helped quell the concerns arising from his poor 2011 showing, as he posted arguably his best year to date. While his rankings in Reception NEP and Target NEP came in at slightly lower than they were in 2010, he still put up career high marks in both of those categories. Where he made a meaningful step forward was in efficiency. His catch rate remained low at 49.6%, but he still finished as the 18th most efficient receiver on a per target basis among players with 100-plus targets (he had 127).

While things were looking up for Williams, his 2013 campaign was a disaster. The whole team was in a state of disarray thanks to the mess that was Greg Schiano’s tenure as the Bucs’ head coach, but much more was expected out of Williams after he was given a hefty contract extension. He wasn’t exactly an early-round pick in fantasy drafts last offseason, but owners were spending roughly an eighth-round selection for Williams on average. Before getting hurt, he was performing at a career low level with the red flag of his efficiency rearing its head once more.

Buffalo (Re)Bound

The pertinent question is whether Williams’ journey to Buffalo will revitalize his career, or if his 2013 is truly indicative of the player he is.

The Bills were 31st as a team in Adjusted Passing NEP last season, and they had just the 24th-most passing attempts. Of the quarterbacks that threw passes last season, only Williams is a guy the team is going to focus on in the red zone, too. Seeing as he’s the biggest receiver on a team almost entirely devoid of serious red zone threats, Williams could easily lead the team in touchdown receptions. His red zone strength was flashed when he scored a 14-yard touchdown in the Bills’ third preseason game.

Normally, I advise against drafting touchdown-dependent players. With Williams, however, it’s a bit difference for two reasons. One, he actually should be presented with relatively consistent chances to score touchdowns. And secondly, he's not being drafted high. He’s the 72nd receiver taken on average in ESPN leagues and has an ADP of 217.35 in MyFantasyLeague drafts. While he could have a season a la 2011 or 2013, his downside is completely mitigated by his minuscule draft-day cost.