Last week, the Seattle Seahawks kicked off the 2014 season as defending Super Bowl Champions by dismantling the Green Bay Packers and their dynamic offense fairly handily. Much has been said about the Seahawks defense, particularly in the secondary as the "Legion of Boom" brashly makes plays while a rotating front seven pressure the quarterback.
Going with a theme similar to my article last week Wikipedia.
In this test, to make sure the sample size was large enough to remove variability, I grouped all the positions together as one large pool of 80 players, and compared the averages in the 16 games against the Seahawks to the total player averages for all games they played to determine if the null hypothesis should be accepted or rejected. In this case, the result was a resounding .001, which means we should reject the null hypothesis and determine that there is a strong presumption that the Seahawks defense shuts down opposing offenses.
I know what you're thinking: Yeah, McFly, I already know the Seahawks defense is really good, so what exactly are you telling me? Well, the t-test I did was really only the basis for me to delve further and continue on with the investigation to see whether or not you should bench your offensive starters against the Seahawks in fantasy on a weekly basis.
So, with that, let's get into the second part of the testing, which shows you actual player results in 2013 versus the Seahawks, comparing that to a player's season-long fantasy points average. Additionally, you see the difference between the two, the standard deviation from their average using all of their 2013 games played as data points and, most importantly, the probability that based on an assumption of a normal distribution, that the particular player analyzed would score more points against the Seahawks than other opponents.
Quarterbacks
| Player | VS SEA | Avg | Difference | STDEV | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newton | 12.80 | 18.63 | -5.83 | 7.59 | 0.22 |
| Kaepernick | 5.80 | 16.53 | -10.73 | 8.00 | 0.09 |
| Henne | 5.90 | 10.75 | -4.85 | 4.57 | 0.14 |
| Schaub | 18.70 | 10.47 | 8.23 | 7.26 | 0.87 |
| Luck | 18.10 | 18.30 | -0.20 | 6.47 | 0.49 |
| Fitzpatrick | 6.10 | 15.15 | -9.05 | 8.11 | 0.13 |
| Palmer | 10.80 | 13.58 | -2.78 | 6.12 | 0.32 |
| Clemens | 3.40 | 8.53 | -5.13 | 5.51 | 0.18 |
| Glennon | 16.00 | 12.15 | 3.85 | 5.35 | 0.76 |
| Ryan | 12.40 | 15.51 | -3.11 | 4.84 | 0.26 |
| Ponder/Cassel/Freeman | 8.30 | 13.79 | (5.49) | 6.57 | 0.20 |
| Brees | 7.80 | 22.36 | -14.56 | 8.79 | 0.05 |
| Kaepernick | 12.10 | 16.53 | -4.43 | 8.00 | 0.29 |
| E. Manning | (3.80) | 10.66 | -14.46 | 6.48 | 0.01 |
| Palmer | 2.80 | 13.58 | -10.78 | 6.12 | 0.04 |
| Clemens | 6.50 | 8.53 | -2.03 | 5.51 | 0.36 |
| Average QB | 8.98 | 14.06 | -5.08 | 6.58 | 0.22 |
To interpret the table, you see that, of the 16 starting quarterbacks who faced the Seahawks in 2013, the position scored over 5 fewer fantasy points per game versus their season average, only averaging about 9 fantasy points per contest. More importantly, you see that the probability of a quarterback having a better game against the Seahawks than another opponent was only 22%.
What's also very interesting is that the Seahawks held some of the league's elite fantasy quarterbacks significantly below their averages as well, particularly buoyed by a play in which Hilton seemed to get behind Sherman with late safety help, which made Hilton the highest scoring fantasy player against the Seahawks at any position in the 16 games played with a total of 26.00 standard fantasy points.
Tight End
| Player | vs. SEA | Avg | Difference | STDEV | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olsen | 5.6 | 7.35 | -1.75 | 3.65 | 0.32 |
| V. Davis | 2.0 | 10.73 | -8.73 | 7.63 | 0.13 |
| Harbor | 0 | 2.45 | -2.45 | 2.85 | 0.20 |
| G. Graham | 12.9 | 6.35 | 6.55 | 5.24 | 0.89 |
| Fleener | 1.5 | 5.55 | -4.05 | 4.68 | 0.19 |
| Walker | 2.9 | 6.21 | -3.31 | 4.22 | 0.22 |
| Housler | 5.3 | 3.95 | 1.35 | 3.27 | 0.66 |
| Cook | 3.1 | 5.94 | -2.84 | 5.76 | 0.31 |
| Wright | 11.8 | 6.24 | 5.56 | 4.6 | 0.89 |
| Gonzalez | 2.9 | 8.49 | -5.59 | 6.07 | 0.18 |
| Carlson | 6.9 | 2.95 | 3.95 | 4.36 | 0.82 |
| J. Graham | 10.2 | 13.59 | -3.39 | 7.59 | 0.33 |
| V. Davis | 8.1 | 10.73 | -2.63 | 7.63 | 0.36 |
| Myers | 3.7 | 4.76 | -1.06 | 4.07 | 0.40 |
| Housler | 0 | 3.95 | -3.95 | 3.27 | 0.11 |
| Cook | 9 | 5.94 | 3.06 | 5.76 | 0.70 |
| Average TE | 5.37 | 6.58 | -1.21 | 5.04 | 0.41 |
The tight ends who faced the Seahawks last season were hardly world-beaters. In the few opportunities they had against top-five players at the position though, the Seahawks held all below their average, including Jimmy Graham and Vernon Davis. Overall, tight ends scored 1.21 fewer points against the Seahawks, and would do better against the Seahawks versus other opponents 41% of the time.
Due to the rash of early injuries to top 12 tight end types in fantasy football already, starting Antonio Gates this week against the Seahawks if he's your top tight end shouldn't be of significant concern.
Conclusion
When you analyze your fantasy matchups for a week, rarely should you bench one of your studs based on their matchup. However, in certain circumstances and through this study, you should give serious thought to benching any of your skill positions against the Seahawks. In particular, as was the case with Thursday versus Sunday night games, the quarterback was impacted most heavily against the Seahawks, as Seattle's penchant for getting quarterback pressure and causing turnovers has significant negative impact on the position. The other positions have some pretty compelling data points as well.