No free agent signing will make quite the splash that Tom Brady's did when he joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but while Tampa Bay is getting a Super Bowl MVP, another team in Florida is losing one.
The Jacksonville Jaguars parted ways with Nick Foles for a fourth-round pick from the Chicago Bears. There's not yet word on the extent to which Foles will compete directly with Mitchell Trubisky, but we do know that Bears coach Matt Nagy -- and others on his staff -- has worked with Foles back with the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs.
What does the data say about who is the best fit in Chicago's offense?
The Recent Sample
One year of data -- just 16 games -- is never enough to make the best decisions, and with Foles, we have just four starts from 2019 to examine. Trubisky played 15 games in 2019.
As for their stats, Trubisky compiled a 5.9 adjusted yards per attempt average, which weights in touchdowns and interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 83.0. Foles' numbers were 6.0 and 84.6, respectively. Pretty close.
Was there more separation when we look at more advanced data, namely our Josh McCown (0.35) finished second.
Back in 2018, Trubisky out-dueled Foles narrowly, ranking 12th in Passing NEP per drop back. Foles was 15th. Trubisky also had the only relevant rushing contribution of either of them, when he added 34.8 Rushing NEP on 57 carries.
Interestingly, Sports Info Solutions shows some clear discrepancies in accuracy over the past two seasons.
| Pass Accuracy (2018-19) | Completion Rate | On Target Rate | Catchable Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 64.7% | 69.6% | 74.3% |
| Nick Foles | 69.9% | 76.6% | 82.7% |
Compounding this with Trubisky's affinity for taking sacks (6.8% career sack rate taken compared to a 5.4% sack rate for Foles), a lot of the data suggests that Foles could do more to unlock the offense's ceiling.
This is despite Trubisky's propensity to throw the ball deep more frequently. Since 2018, 20.7% of Trubisky's passes traveled at least 16 yards downfield, compared to 16.3% for Foles. Trubisky ranks 9th among qualified passers in this sample, while Foles ranks 32nd. However, Trubisky has thrown 11 touchdowns and 10 picks on downfield passes, and both rank as bottom-of-the-rung deep ball passers in this sample in efficiency.
Takeaways
Trubisky has had a flash of -- not brilliance so much as competence -- in his three-year career, but Foles' true peak has been better than Trubisky's. We're dealing with unequal sample sizes, naturally, but we're also dealing with the recency bias of Trubisky's unimpressive 2019 season. Yes, it was still better than Foles', but he had a limited opportunity. The point is more that the Bears may be looking to anyone who isn't Trubisky.
If nothing else, Foles' accuracy numbers and better pocket presence -- as evidenced by the sack rate -- could do more to keep the Bears in games in 2020. The Bears boasted a top-10 defense across the board in terms of numberFire's overall, passing, and rushing defense numbers in 2019. With an offense better than 30th overall, they could have made more of a splash than their 8-8 record.
The Bears can be bet at +3300 to win the Super Bowl on FanDuel Sportsbook.