The NFL season is around the corner -- even if that corner is a little farther down the block than it may normally be. Despite that, FanDuel Sportsbook has given us tons and tons and tons (did I mention tons?) of offerings to wager on for the 2020 season.
One of them includes game-by-game spreads and moneylines for a few teams, including the New York Giants.
Which Giants games offer value?
The Process
So, we don't know the week-by-week schedule for the NFL, but we do know home and road opponents for the year. Thus, we know every matchup and can adjust for home/road context.
Using win totals and betting lines attached to them, we can approximate point differential for a team. If you're a numberFire regular, you'll know our nERD metric well. It indicates expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field. Regressing win totals and betting odds on those totals allowed me to approximate nERD for 2020.
From there, we can simulate a team's schedule a few thousand times to see where value is available.
The Schedule and Results
The table here lists the Giants' home/road status and their opponent. Next, it's the actual spread and moneyline listed on FanDuel Sportsbook.
After that, it's the average point differential for the Giants in the simulated games. This also reflects the expected nERD differential between the teams going into the matchup. Over 10,000 simulations, things average out to around the same number. I also listed the percentage of games in which the Giants covered the spread.
The final three columns indicate moneyline and outright win information: the percentage of simulated games won, their moneyline odds displayed as a probability, and the differential between the two.
| Opponent | H/A | NYG Spread | NYG ML | Avg. NYG Point Diff. | NYG Sim Cover% | NYG Sim Win% | ML Odds | ML Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle | A | +7.5 | +280 | -5.5 | 55.7% | 33.5% | 26.3% | 7.1% |
| Philadelphia | A | +7.5 | +300 | -7.7 | 49.2% | 28.5% | 25.0% | 3.5% |
| Tampa Bay | H | +3.5 | +164 | -2.8 | 51.9% | 40.9% | 37.9% | 3.0% |
| Cleveland | H | +2.5 | +120 | -0.2 | 57.0% | 48.2% | 45.5% | 2.7% |
| Baltimore | A | +11.5 | +380 | -9.9 | 54.5% | 22.9% | 20.8% | 2.1% |
| LA Rams | A | +7.0 | +250 | -6.9 | 48.3% | 30.0% | 28.6% | 1.4% |
| Philadelphia | H | +4.0 | +160 | -3.1 | 51.0% | 39.8% | 38.5% | 1.3% |
| Pittsburgh | H | +3.0 | +140 | -2.6 | 50.2% | 41.4% | 41.7% | -0.3% |
| San Francisco | H | +6.5 | +210 | -5.9 | 51.1% | 31.8% | 32.3% | -0.4% |
| Dallas | A | +8.5 | +320 | -9.9 | 45.9% | 22.7% | 23.8% | -1.1% |
| Chicago | A | +4.5 | +190 | -5.5 | 46.7% | 32.5% | 34.5% | -2.0% |
| Dallas | H | +4.5 | +165 | -5.0 | 48.8% | 34.9% | 37.7% | -2.8% |
| Washington | A | +1.5 | +105 | -1.0 | 51.4% | 45.9% | 48.8% | -2.9% |
| Cincinnati | A | +1.5 | +105 | -1.3 | 50.8% | 45.2% | 48.8% | -3.6% |
| Washington | H | -3.5 | -180 | 4.1 | 52.0% | 60.6% | 64.3% | -3.7% |
| Arizona | H | -1.5 | -130 | 0.8 | 48.2% | 51.1% | 56.5% | -5.4% |
The Best Value Spots
The best value so far is the Giants' game against the Seattle Seahawks, which is on the road. Home-field advantage could be mitigated if the season is played without crowds, so there's one factor in New York's favor, but the Seahawks are not being treated as a typical borderline-double-digit-win team. Their over/under is set at 9.5 wins, but the under is -155. That makes them look more like a 9-7 or 8-8 team. The spread is listed at +7.5 for the Giants, yet the win totals imply a difference of only 5.5 points between the two teams.
Another road game is next in value: at the Philadelphia Eagles. Last year, the Eagles were just 16th in numberFire's nERD rating (-0.27) despite their division crown. The action on Philadelphia's under (under 9.5 wins is listed at -115) is less severe than what we see with Seattle, but the Eagles don't necessarily rate out as a 10-win team, either. The spread is pretty spot on overall, yet the outright win odds don't really match up.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a brand new team by now, and the betting action is on their over (over 9.5 wins is listed at -135). Even adjusting for that, the Giants are a moneyline value at home against them.
The best odds to cover a spread is when the Giants face the Cleveland Browns at home. The spread is +2.5 for New York. Cleveland's expected point differential is only 0.2 points better than New York's (Cleveland is listed at -135 to go under 8.5 wins). They won the game outright in 48.2% of the simulations and covered 57.0% of the time.
The Baltimore Ravens are -- naturally -- a team with big expectations. Their huge over/under (11.5 wins) is met with -115 odds on the under. They could be the NFL's best regular season team again. Still, the expected spread should be closer to 10.0 points. Though there's value on the moneyline, I'd be much more inclined to take the points on the road.