The Carolina Panthers rode a top-two NFL defense to a 12-4 record and the franchise’s first playoff berth in five years in 2013. They look to make the playoffs in back- to-back seasons for the first time in franchise history this year, and advanced metrics show Carolina rushing for 135 yards as a team.

The strongest predictor - a past contest with two comparable teams in a comparable situation – brings us back to a 2011 late season contest between the New York Jets (playing the role of Carolina for comparison’s sake) and the Buffalo Bills. The 2010 New York Jets, led by second-year quarterback Mark Sanchez, rested their starters with a playoff berth already locked up and dismantled the Bills with a swarming defense and a heavy dose of the run game. The Jets forced six Buffalo turnovers, rushed for 276 yards as a team on an absurd 50 carries, and held the Bills under 200 yards of total offense. New York scored the first 17 points and the final 28 on the way to an easy 38-7 victory in front of their home crowd.

Carolina has the weapons in place to perform a similar dismantling of the Steelers. Carolina will attempt to keep Pittsburgh off the field with a successful ground attack and force Ben Roethlisberger to make poor decisions under pressure. Roethlisberger has already taken five sacks and the Pittsburgh offense has four turnovers. Since racing out to a 27-3 halftime lead in Week 1’s matchup with Cleveland, Pittsburgh has been outscored 50-9 over the last six quarters.

Forcing Offensive Tempo

Pittsburgh is only a three-point underdog in this game, and Vegas is expecting a lower scoring contest, as this game has the third-lowest projected total in Week 3. In order for Pittsburgh to win, they need to overcome their defensive deficiencies and force a higher scoring game.

The Steelers haven’t hidden the fact that their goal is to run a higher paced, no-huddle offensive attack, where Roethlisberger makes decisions at the line and they attempt to capitalize on mismatches due to tempo. The strongest historical predictor in favor of Pittsburgh takes us back to a 2004 shootout between the Dallas Cowboys (comparing to the Steelers) and the Seattle Seahawks.

The 2004 Cowboys were a middling 6-10 squad up against eventual NFC West Champion Seattle on a December Monday Night where Seattle was a seven-point favorite with the same game total of 42 in place. The Seahawks raced out to a 14-3 first quarter league before Julius Jones strapped the ‘Boys on his back to score the next 26 points, eventually holding off a furious fourth quarter comeback attempt to win 43-39.

Dallas outscored the game total themselves behind 198 yards and three scores from Jones and a six-catch, 116-yard receiving performance from Keyshawn Johnson. Only five Cowboys caught passes in this game, as Jones carried the rock 30 times. Turnovers were square at two a piece, and Vinny Testaverde was only sacked twice.

The Cowboys relied heavily on a veteran quarterback, a stud rushing performance, and one elite standout receiver to claim victory. The Steelers need to keep Roethlisberger upright, feed Bell as much as he can handle, and push the ball downfield to Brown to win this game. If Pittsburgh hopes to be victorious on this night, this is the formula they will need to abide by.

Panthers Pummel Pittsburgh

Despite the strength of the predictors in each team’s favor, we have the Panthers rolling to a decisive 28-21 victory. The Carolina running game will be the deciding factor in this one, and the fast-paced Steeler attack will make one turnover too many. If you’re throwing a little green down on the game, take the over. It is our highest percentage return.