It's almost a cliché at this point: Thursday night games are sloppy, one-sided affairs. Right?

Well, so far in 2014, that's certainly been the case. Through five weeks, no Thursday night game has been decided by fewer than 20 points. Over the last three weeks, the average margin of victory has been 35 points. Not exactly a formula for riveting entertainment, and certainly fuel to the fire for the large, vocal contingent of football viewers who've argued for years that the Thursday night games are bad for the sport.

It's worth mentioning that historically, Thursday games actually don't have a significantly higher margin of victory than games played on other days. And tonight's game should align a little more closely with that history than other games this year have, judging by the two teams involved. The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts are both 3-2, and they've both got something to prove. The Texans look pretty good, considering that their two losses were suffered at the hands of teams with winning records (the Giants and Cowboys); they've also beaten the Bills, who have shown they're a team to contend with in 2014. That's mostly due to their excellent defense, which ranks first in the NFL in Adjusted Defensive Murphy's Law for the Texans, as it details everything that could go wrong tonight for them. The Patriots rode their rushing game to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter with a score on the ground by LeGarrette Blount (a bruiser much like Trent Richardson) and a short pass to Shane Vereen (a major factor in the passing game, much like Bradshaw). The Ravens' rushing game barely bothered to show up - Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce (the two worst rushers in the NFL last year, by NEP) carried the ball a combined 21 times for 71 yards. Worst of all, the Ravens lost the turnover battle in epic fashion. They forced zero turnovers while committing four of their own, including two (a Tyrod Taylor interception and a fumbled snap) that the Patriots returned for touchdowns. It's one of the more miserable games you'll ever see played by a team that puts up over 350 yards on offense.

The Verdict

That last situation is pretty much the worst-case scenario for these Texans, or, in other words, what we can expect to see if the Curse of Thursday Night(TM) continues. We here at numberFire think it'll be a lot closer than that. The Colts should win this one, but let's say they eke it out 26-24. Stay away from the 2.5-point spread, though.