As you know, we like math here at numberFire. Our algorithms help tell a better story about sports -- they're able to dig through the nonsense, helping us look at things that matter on the court, field or rink.
With football, we love our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which measures the number of points a player adds (or loses) to his team versus what he's expected to add. Rather than counting statistics like yards, touchdowns and receptions, NEP looks at down-and-distance situations and field position and relates these instances to history. When a player outperforms what's happened in the past, he sees a positive expected points value on the play. When he doesn't, his expected points value gained on the play is negative. All of these little instances add up, then, to be a player's Net Expected Points total.
You can read more about NEP in our glossary.
Using a formula that compares individual single-game performance to history, the numberFire Live platform takes this Net Expected Points formula and assigns a rating to a player's performance. Each week, that's what we'll show here -- the 20 best ratings.
Here are Week 3's results:
| Player | Position | Rating | Passing NEP | Rushing NEP | Reception NEP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | RB | 99 | - | 1.29 | 9.62 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | 99 | - | - | 15.45 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 98 | - | 8.79 | 0.91 |
| Allen Lazard | WR | 97 | - | -0.75 | 14.09 |
| Nick Mullens | QB | 96 | 22.89 | -1.69 | - |
| James Conner | RB | 92 | - | 6.15 | 1.80 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 92 | - | - | 10.41 |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | 91 | - | 0.74 | 6.62 |
| Drew Brees | QB | 89 | 16.13 | - | - |
| James Robinson | RB | 89 | - | 1.96 | 3.69 |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | 86 | 9.44 | 0.17 | - |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 85 | 12.30 | 1.67 | - |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | 84 | - | 1.25 | 5.95 |
| Philip Rivers | QB | 83 | 13.26 | - | - |
| Dalvin Cook | RB | 83 | - | 3.66 | 0.89 |
| Sony Michel | RB | 82 | - | 5.58 | 1.51 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | 82 | 9.80 | 4.84 | -1.22 |
| Randall Cobb | WR | 81 | - | - | 9.64 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | WR | 81 | - | 3.65 | 5.96 |
| Allen Robinson | WR | 81 | - | - | 11.53 |
- Alvin Kamara and Allen Lazard had a bit of a showdown on Sunday Night Football this week, based on our in-game ratings. Kamara's 99 tied for the best score of Week 3, while Lazard's 97 was a top-four mark.
Despite only 6 carries, Kamara totaled 58 rushing yards (with a long run of 49), and he turned 14 targets into 13 catches for 139 yards and 2 touchdowns.
It wasn't enough, as Lazard's Green Bay Packers fended off the New Orleans Saints. Lazard did all he could in the absence of Davante Adams, racking up 146 yards and a touchdown on 8 targets, good for 14.09 expected points as a receiver.
- The other two players in the top four were in the same game as well: Justin Jefferson had a coming-out party against the Tennessee Titans, and Derrick Henry's rushing workload against the Minnesota Vikings kept this one close.
Jefferson posted a week-best 15.45 Reception NEP (175 yards and a touchdown on 9 targets). Henry added 8.79 points on the ground (26 carries for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns), with 69.2% of his carries increasing the Titans' expected point output.
- Nick Mullens and the depleted San Francisco 49ers dominated the New York Giants. Mullens secured 0.60 Passing NEP per drop back, four times the NFL average of 0.15 so far in 2020. Mullens was credited for 343 yards on 36 attempts (9.5 yards per attempt) in the blowout.