It felt like it took a while for running back Le'Veon Bell to decide where he'd sign after the New York Jets released him, but on Thursday, he found a new home: the Kansas City Chiefs.
The former fantasy football superstar throws a wrench into the Chiefs' backfield after the team drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
How exactly may Bell impact the team, and how does numberFire project the backfield to look the rest of the way?
Does Bell Still Have It?
The positive impact of jumping from the Jets to the Chiefs is impossible to overstate. The Chiefs are the Super Bowl favorites at +430, according to Super Bowl odds. The Jets? Dead last at +100000. The Chiefs are second in our power rankings and Super Bowl odds at 14.8%. The Jets? Last again.
In fact, the Chiefs (8.06 nERD) are about 20 points better per game than the Jets (-12.08 nERD) based on our advanced metrics. That's wild.
The Jets entered Week 6 with the worst offense in football based on numberFire's Adjusted ProFootballFocus' pass block grade. That could be key.
What's the Deal With Clyde Edwards-Helaire?
Edwards-Helaire has been a liability in two specific areas: pass-blocking and short-yardage situations.
Edwards-Helaire has a pass block grade of 17.1 via ProFootballFocus, which is 80th out of 81 backs with at least 10 pass-blocking snaps (CEH has 13). Small sample caveat, of course, but there's a reason he's not getting a lot of pass game work.
Of 14 backs with at least 20 carries on 5-yards-or-shorter-to-go downs, just three have posted negative Rushing NEP, and CEH is one of them (-0.14). He's also tied for last in Rushing Success Rate in that sample. Of 13 backs with at least 15 red zone carries, four have negative Rushing NEP. Edwards-Helaire is one of them, and he's last in Rushing Success Rate among them.
On 13 carries with at least 8 defenders in the box, Edwards-Helaire has lost -5.34 Rushing NEP, working out to -0.41 Rushing NEP per carry, the worst mark of all backs with at least that many carries against stacked boxes.
Again, we're dealing with minuscule samples, but that can still matter if it leads to lost snaps.
Edwards-Helaire clearly looks likely to be phased out in such circumstances and is a clear risk to get a diminished workload. Is Edwards-Helaire likely better than this small-sample return? Probably, yeah. Will it matter how good he is if he's the minority back in a committee? Not that much for fantasy football; he'd be in the flex conversation.
Projecting the Chiefs
Despite the slow start in the touchdown department, Edwards-Helaire rated out well the rest of the season due to the offense, his yardage, and the role he had.
| ROS Projection Before Bell Signing | Rush | Yards | TD | Rec | Tar | Yards | TD | Half-PPR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards- Helaire | 183.0 | 802.8 | 5.8 | 39.7 | 54.0 | 308.7 | 2.7 | RB9 |
But the results after are more damning.
| ROS Projection After Bell Signing | Rush | Yards | TD | Rec | Tar | Yards | TD | Half-PPR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 112.5 | 497.7 | 4.6 | 30.7 | 40.3 | 252.4 | 2.1 | RB25 |
| Clyde Edwards- Helaire | 113.5 | 497.9 | 3.3 | 26.4 | 35.6 | 209.2 | 1.6 | RB30 |
With Bell unable to play in Week 6, CEH gets an extra game in this data, so keep that in mind. But we're initially projecting a bit of a timeshare that favors Bell and allows him to carve out a better weekly workload moving forward from Week 7. The touchdowns should also funnel to Bell, given Edwards-Helaire's short-yardage issues.
This is clearly going to be a good enough offense where they each may have some value in season-long leagues, but for daily fantasy rosters, we'll want whomever is the lead back. Based on Edwards-Helaire's early data, it's looking likely that Bell carves out that majority role and is the back to take the lead here. Just how quickly -- or if -- he diminishes Edwards-Helaire's role entirely remains to be seen, but the arrow is way down on CEH and way up on Bell.