You ever eat a banana dipped in ketchup? If you answered "yes" to that question, you might want to get yourself checked out -- however, I will say this, it certainly is a bold meal choice.
Not to be confused with baldness, boldness would be sporting a mohawk at the ripe young age of 75. In an unrealistic football analogy, boldness would be trading the best receiver in football for a washed-up running back with a huge contract. Ehhh, no one would be that stup...oh, nevermind.
For this article, we'll focus the boldness on fantasy football. Think of this piece like Taco Tuesday -- it's better when it's spicy, but the spiciness is not what it's all about; it's there to add flavor. The point here is not to hit on 100% of the predictions. After all, I'm not a vomiting hippo. The goal here is to uncover insights that can help us win some dough in fantasy. The idea is to uncover some players that might either have an amazing week or post a complete dud.
Now, let's eat a serving of ketchup banana (yuck).
(All predictions are for half-PPR and FanDuel scoring for quarterbacks.)
1. Josh Allen Scores 30+ Fantasy Points
A month ago, nothing about this prediction would have been bold. After all, through four games, Josh Allen ($8,200) had posted at least 28 FanDuel points three times, and he was fewer than five points behind the overall QB1. That said, he hasn't recorded more than 18.3 fantasy points in any of the four games since.
In 2020, the Seattle Seahawks seem to be the cure to all passing-game woes. Seattle has surrendered the most FanDuel points per game to the quarterback position, and they've allowed at least 29.5 points to three different signal-callers. Adding to the deliciousness of this matchup is the fact that Seattle has surrendered at least 10.7 fantasy points on the ground to three different quarterbacks, including 83-year-old Ryan (now beardless) Fitzpatrick.
Given that Seattle is tied for fourth in the league in interceptions, the chances are that Allen doesn't have a perfect day throwing the ball -- he rarely does. However, given the fact that the Seahawks have faced the league's highest pass-to-run ratio (1.84), he won't need to be perfect to have a dominant fantasy day. And, lest we forget, Seattle does rank fifth-worst in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play. The projected total in this game is 2.5 points higher than any other contest on the slate, so that certainly doesn't hurt Allen's outlook.
Allen is the fifth-highest-salaried quarterback on Sunday's main slate, but he's our model's top-projected value.
2. Chase Edmonds Finishes as a Top-5 Running Back
The number of running backs with at least 25 carries this season? 70. The number of running backs with a higher Rushing NEP per carry than Chase Edmonds ($6,700)? Zero.
Edmonds has also been one of the league's best receiving backs. Of the 33 runners with at least 20 targets this season, Edmonds ranks third in Reception NEP per target.
As we can clearly see, the issue for Edmonds hasn't been efficiency. The issue has been volume. The 24-year-old hasn't been given more than six carries in any game this season. That's coaching malpractice, considering how ridiculously efficient he's been.
The good news for Edmonds is that his coaching staff might not be in a position to hold him back in Week 9. As it stands, Kenyan Drake has yet to practice this week and is looking to be doubtful for Sunday's contest. That means Drake's 17 carries per game are likely to be up for grabs. Edmonds should absorb a large portion of that.
As for the matchup, there are reasons to be optimistic. On the season, the Miami Dolphins rank first in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. They're nowhere near as good in the rushing counterpart of that metric, ranking 14th-worst through eight weeks. While the Dolphins have ceded the 10th-fewest FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks, they've allowed the 8th-most to running backs. Look for the Arizona Cardinals to lean on the run more than they usually would.
Edmonds is just the 13th-most expensive back on Sunday's main slate, which could make him a slate-winning value.
3. Jonathan Taylor Finishes Outside the Top-30 at Running Back
The expectations for Jonathan Taylor ($6,400) coming out of the draft were sky-high, but it's fair to see that he hasn't lived up to them yet. Of the 38 backs to garner at least 50 carries this season, Taylor ranks 32nd in Rushing Success Rate (i.e., the percentage of carries that lead to positive NEP for a team’s offense). It all reached a low point when Taylor managed just 31 scoreless yards on 13 touches against a Detroit Lions that ranks fourth-worst in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play.
Well, things are about to get worse before they get better. In Week 9, Taylor will have to go up against a Baltimore Ravens defense that ranks first in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. To make matters worse, Taylor is also said to be battling a "little bit" of an ankle injury.
In half-PPR formats, Taylor has finished as outside the top-30 at the position twice this season -- I expect that to happen again this week.
4. Diontae Johnson Posts 80+ Yards and 2 Touchdowns
Diontae Johnson ($6,000) has been a fantasy rollercoaster in 2020. In his last five games, Johnson has posted 19 or more FanDuel points twice and 1.1 or fewer three times. That's the dictionary definition of "all or nothing."
In-game injuries have hampered Johnson in each of those three duds, so the potential of another one occurring has to be taken into consideration. That said, 26 receivers have higher salaries than Johnson on Sunday's main slate, and for many of them, it's tough to make an argument that they possess a higher weekly ceiling than the 24-year-old.
The good news for Johnson is that he's off Pittsburgh's injury report for the first time all season, according to DraftSharks' Jared Smola. The even better news is that he's going up against the Dallas Cowboys' Swiss cheese defense. To date, 10 wideouts have recorded at least 13.6 half-PPR points against Dallas, and four of them managed to exceed 21. DFS players should be licking their chops at the prospect of rostering Diontae.
5. Noah Fant Finishes as a Top-3 Tight End
If you exclude their two games against the "we don't know that tight ends exist" -Carolina Panthers, the Atlanta Falcons have surrendered at least 13.6 half-PPR points to tight ends in every game this season. Just so you know, 13.6 points would have been good enough to finish as the TE2 in Week 8.
The tight end lucky enough to draw the Falcons this week is Noah Fant ($5,800). According to PlayerProfiler, Fant ranks sixth at his position in target share and eighth in air yards. He's seen at least six looks in five of his six games this season. On that note, of the four tight ends to garner at least six targets against the Falcons this season, none scored fewer than 14.4 half-PPR points.
Even though his $5,800 salary doesn't reflect it, Fant is in the top tier of tight ends for Week 9.