2020 has been a year of chaos and discombobulation -- whatever the norm was, it's long been thrown out the window. However, despite all the pandemonium, the one thing that's bound to be a constant is the need to make fantasy football lineup decisions.
Imagine spending months searching for a vacation destination, finally finding one, and having absolutely no plan for when you arrive -- that would be all of us after weeks and months of researching for drafts and then not having a plan of action for when the season actually arrives.
If you had a good draft, you should have some tough lineup decisions to make on a weekly basis. If you don't have any tough lineup decisions, there's a good chance that your bench is thinner than LeBron James' hairline. The goal of this piece is to assist with some of those decisions.
Of course, leagues come in all shapes and sizes, so it's near impossible to tackle every start-or-sit scenario. A must-start for one team could be a bench option in another league.
With all that being said, we're here to help at numberFire! This column will try to highlight some of those tough lineup decisions you have to make every week, and will, hopefully, be able to sway you in one direction or another.
Without further ado, let's get onto the best and worst plays of the week. We'll break down players into four categories:
Start: These players are good starts in any format unless you have one of the elites.
Stream: These will be players with either good matchups or higher-than-usual projected volume that can be streaming options in many formats.
Fade: This category will be reserved for higher-end fantasy studs who find themselves in a bad spot on that given week. Fade these players in DFS or if you have a loaded roster, but don't get too cute.
Sit: This category will feature players that should ride the pine unless you truly have no better options.
Let's get to it!
(When I reference fantasy points allowed, it is Yahoo settings for quarterbacks and half-PPR for the other positions.)
Quarterback
Start
Jared Goff (vs. Seattle) - This is obvious, right? Goff is going up against a Seattle Seahawks defense surrendering the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Seattle has ceded at least 20.3 fantasy points to quarterbacks in all but one game, and five passers have managed at least 24.9. The Seahawks rank fifth-worst in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, but they've also faced the highest pass-to-run ratio in the league. Goff has posted three outputs of at least 24 points this season, and he could make that four on Sunday. The Los Angeles Rams have the fourth-highest implied total on the slate in the game with the second-biggest projected total -- that helps.
Drew Brees (vs. San Francisco) - These aren't the San Francisco 49ers of last season. The Niners have already surrendered more than 20 fantasy points to five different signal-callers this season, and they rank 13th-worst in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. Meanwhile, while Brees hasn't displayed his usual ceiling, he has still posted at least 19.6 fantasy points in five of his eight outings this season. New Orleans' implied total of 29.5 is second-highest on the slate, which means Brees should be in a great position to produce.
Definitely start: Carson Wentz (at NYG), Aaron Rodgers (vs. JAC), Tom Brady (vs. SF).
Stream
Drew Lock (at Las Vegas) - After entering Week 8 with just one top-20 fantasy performance to his young career, Lock has finished as the QB7 and QB4 over his last two games. Lock hasn't been very good this season -- he ranks second-worst in Passing NEP per drop back -- but that doesn't mean he can't produce. Lock is averaging 43 pass attempts and 4 rushes in his last three contests, and he'll be going up against a Las Vegas Raiders defense that's allowed at least 23.4 fantasy points to a quarterback in four of their last five games. The Raiders are tied for the fifth-worst mark in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, making Lock a solid streamer this week.
Tua Tagovailoa (vs. LAC) - Tua totaled just 93 yards on 22 attempts in his first career start in Week 8 but bounced back with 248 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 35 rushing yards in Week 9. Tua will get a chance to add another decent fantasy game against the Los Angeles Chargers this week. Los Angeles has ceded the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal-callers. Only two quarterbacks have scored fewer than 17 fantasy points against the Chargers. Tua should have a solid floor for this matchup.
Other options: Ben Roethlisberger (vs. CIN), Baker Mayfield (vs. HOU), Derek Carr (vs. DEN).
Fade
Lamar Jackson (at New England) - The New England Patriots are nowhere near the lockdown defense they were last year, but that doesn't mean Jackson's a high-end play this week. First off, Jackson has finished as the QB17 or worse in five of his eight games this season, and he hasn't finished higher than QB5 since Week 1. That ceiling we saw on a weekly basis last just isn't there right now. Second, New England hasn't surrendered more than 21.5 points to a quarterback since Week 2, and they've faced Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen during that stretch. Teams have also been deploying run-heavy game plans against the Pats, as they're the only team to have faced a pass-to-run ratio under 1.0 this season.
Sit
Joe Burrow (at Pittsburgh) - While Burrow might be a complete bust this week, to ask for any upside would be unreasonable. Dating back to Week 2 of last season, only one quarterback has surpassed 19.4 fantasy points against the Pittsburgh Steelers -- that's a span of 22 games. Pittsburgh ranks seventh-best in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, and only four teams have been stingier against the position. Burrow has recorded fewer than 18 fantasy points in four of his eight contests this season, and with the Cincinnati Bengals having the third-lowest implied total on the slate, he could be headed for another dud.
Kirk Cousins (at Chicago) - Cousins has been a viable streamer on a few occasions this season, but this week is not one of those occasions. Cousins will be going up against a Chicago Bears defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Chicago ranks third in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, and they've faced the 11th-lowest pass-to-run ratio in the league. Over their last 35 games, only one quarterback has equaled or surpassed the 20-point mark against Chicago. Keep Cousins on your bench this week.
Consider sitting: Cam Newton (vs. BAL), Matthew Stafford (vs. WAS), Teddy Bridgewater (vs. TB).
Running Back
Start
Chase Edmonds (vs. Buffalo) - Edmonds was in this spot last week, but he finished outside the top-20 at the position. Let's give it another go this week. For this matchup, the Arizona Cardinals will be taking on the Buffalo Bills in a matchup that currently has the highest projected total on the slate. To date, Buffalo ranks ninth-worst in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, and they've surrendered the sixth-most rushing yards and fourth-most rushing scores to opposing backs. Edmonds was given a whopping 25 carries in Week 9, and every back to garner 16 or more totes against the Bills has managed at least 16.2 half-PPR points. Kenyan Drake did practice on Wednesday, so that's a situation worth monitoring -- Drake being active would bump Edmonds down to RB3 territory.
Antonio Gibson (at Detroit) - No team is allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing running backs than the Detroit Lions this season. Through eight games, eight different backs have totaled at least 13.3 half-PPR points against the Lions in 2020 and seven of them managed 17.8 or more. Gibson has struggled in some negative game script situations this season, so it doesn't hurt that the Lions have faced the fourth-lowest pass-to-run ratio in the league. Gibson has recorded 13 or more touches on five different occasions this season. If he can get to that number in this one, he could easily approach high-end RB2 territory.
Definitely start: Nick Chubb (vs. Houston), Miles Sanders (at NYG), Kareem Hunt (vs. HOU).
Stream
Duke Johnson (at Cleveland) - David Johnson exited last week's game with a concussion and was unable to practice on Wednesday. In his stead, Duke stepped in and totaled 73 yards and a score on 20 touches. This week, the Houston Texans get a tasty matchup against the Cleveland Browns. Though they have been above-average in fantasy points allowed to the position, Cleveland does rank fourth-worst in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. Eight backs have surpassed double-digit fantasy points against the Browns this season, and five have managed more than 14. Stream Duke with confidence if David is out.
Leonard Fournette (at Carolina) - Only four teams have ceded more fantasy points per game to opposing running backs than the Carolina Panthers, but the intrigue in Fournette stems beyond that this week. So far this season, no team has surrendered more receptions to opposing running backs than the Panthers. Fournette has garnered at least 6 targets in three games, which means he should be able to take advantage of that mismatch. When Fournette played Carolina in Week 2, he totaled 116 yards and 2 tuddies on 16 touches. The former fourth overall pick is an excellent streamer this week.
Other options: Phillip Lindsay (at LV), D'Andre Swift (vs. WAS), J.D. McKissic (at DET).
Fade
Mike Davis (vs. Tampa Bay) - With Christian McCaffrey injured again and likely out this week, Davis will once again be the lead back for the Panthers. That honor paid off in a big way when CMC first went down, as Davis posted three consecutive games with at least 19.1 fantasy points, but his play trailed off in the subsequent three contests. Davis averaged just 8.9 half-PPR points from Week 6 through 8 without McCaffrey in the fold, and he could experience similar struggles this week. Davis will be squaring off with a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that ranks second in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. This is a defense that held Aaron Jones to 11.6 half-PPR points, Josh Jacobs to 4.6, and Alvin Kamara to 13.4.
Sit
All New England Running Backs (vs. Baltimore) - Only the Baltimore Ravens rank higher than the Bucs in our rush defense metric. Baltimore has surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. For that reason, teams haven't been running much on the Ravens -- they've faced the second-highest pass-to-run ratio in the league. Figuring out which New England back will pop on a weekly basis is difficult, and I suggest you pass on their backfield entirely this week.
All Los Angeles Rams Running Backs (vs. Seattle) - As evidenced by their league-high 1.89 pass-to-rush ratio, the Seattle Seahawks are as pass-funnelsome as pass funnelsome gets. In fact, Seattle ranks as the seventh-best team in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, and they're on the complete opposite spectrum against the pass. Meanwhile, Rams head coach Sean McVay is quietly turning into Bill Belichick-lite with his running back usage this season. The split between Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown makes very little sense on a weekly basis, especially considering Henderson's play, and he has also sprinkled in some Cam Akers every now and then. In a game where the Rams are likely to have to deploy a pass-heavy scheme, avoiding this backfield is probably wise.
Consider sitting: Joe Mixon (at PIT), Gus Edwards (at NE), Devin Singletary (at ARI).
Wide Receiver
Start
Cooper Kupp (vs. Seattle) - After allowing three more wideouts to record more than 13 half-PPR points against them in Week 9, the Seahawks have now ceded double-digit points to 19 different receivers. For those of you keeping track at home -- that's 2.4 per game. Seattle has surrendered at least 20 fantasy points to 7 different wideouts, at least 18 to 9, and at least 15 to 13 opposing wide receivers. In what is a somewhat-too-hard-to-believe stat, Seattle is surrendering 10.2 more half-PPR points to receivers per game than any other team in the league. Meanwhile, Kupp has been pretty hit or miss this season, but this is certainly a smash spot for him. In three of his last four games against Seattle, Kupp has recorded at least 45 yards and a touchdown. He's a WR1 this week.
Brandin Cooks (at Cleveland) - If not for the Seahawks' absurdly atrocious pass defense, we'd be focusing on the fact that there are five other teams allowing more half-PPR points per game to wideouts than any team surrendered last season. One of those five teams is the Cleveland Browns. Through eight games, Cleveland has allowed at least 14.4 half-PPR points to 9 different receivers, and they've surrendered double-digit points to 14 different pass-catchers. To date, the Browns are tied for the fifth-worst mark in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. Meanwhile, Cooks has seen at least nine targets in every game since Bill O'Brien was fired, and he's averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game over those four contests. In fact, Cooks is the WR8 in points per game over that span. He's a borderline WR1 for this juicy matchup.
Definitely start: Robert Woods (vs. SEA), Will Fuller (at CLE), Allen Robinson (vs. MIN), Tyler Boyd (at PIT).
Stream
Jarvis Landry (vs. Houston) - In half-PPR leagues, Landry has yet to score more than 10.8 fantasy points in a game this season, but that could very well change this week. This week, the Browns will be taking on the Houston Texans, a team ceding the seventh-most fantasy points to the position. Houston is also tied with Seattle and Cleveland for the fifth-worst mark in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play -- but there's even more reason to be intrigued by Landry in Week 10. In terms of PPR points per target allowed to wideouts lined up in the slot, the Texans are among the most generous teams in the league. Landry saw 11 looks in Cleveland's Week 8 loss to the Raiders, and if he sees anything close to that volume again, he could explode.
Darnell Mooney (vs. Minnesota) - The team right behind Seattle in fantasy points allowed to wideouts is the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota is third in yards and first in touchdowns per game allowed to the position. Through eight games, 11 receivers have seen at least six targets against the Vikings -- seven of them scored at least 15.9 half-PPR points. That's where Mooney comes into play. The rookie has seen 7, 6, and 11 targets in his last three games. If you're in need of a streamer, you can do worse than throwing a dart at the fifth-round pick.
Other options: Josh Reynolds (vs. SEA), Curtis Samuel (vs. TB), John Brown (at ARI), Tim Patrick (at LV).
Fade
Adam Thielen (at Chicago) - In Week 9, A.J. Brown became the first wideout to surpass 14.2 half-PPR points against Chicago this season. Each of the five receivers to total at least 11.8 fantasy points against the Bears saw eight or more targets -- Thielen has not exceeded five targets in any of his last three games. In his last three games against Chicago, Thielen has posted 6 yards, 66 yards, and 37 yards -- all scoreless. Fading him in this matchup would be wise.
Sit
Marvin Jones (vs. Washington) - Jones has now played three games without Golladay in the fold this season, and he's posted 7.5, 10.3, and 11.8 half-PPR points -- not exactly fantastic for the Detroit de-facto WR1. This week, Jones gets a tough matchup with a Washington Football Team allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the opposition's receivers. Only two receivers -- DeAndre Hopkins and Robert Woods -- have managed more than 12 points against Washington this season. It's best to leave Jones on the bench for this one.
Darius Slayton (vs. Philadelphia) - We've already been in this spot with Slayton in Week 7, and he managed just 2 receptions for 23 scoreless yards in that matchup. Slayton should see plenty of Darius Slay in this one, which doesn't bode well for his fantasy output. The Eagles have surrendered the third-fewest yards to the position, and they've only allowed wideouts to score in three of their eight outings this season. Slayton has seen four or fewer targets in three of his last four games, and there's a real danger of that happening again this week. There's a decent chance that there are better streaming options available on your bench or waiver wire.
Consider sitting: Jakobi Meyers (vs. BAL), Justin Jefferson (at CHI), A.J. Green (at PIT).
Tight End
Start/Stream
Eric Ebron (vs. Cincinnati) - Over the last three weeks, fantasy football's TE4 is...you guessed it...Eric Ebron! Ebron has posted at least eight half-PPR points in each of his last three games, which is just about as much as you can ask for at the position. The veteran has garnered at least five targets in six of his last seven games, which again, is just about as much as you can ask for at the position. This week, Ebron will go up against the Cincinnati Bengals, a team tied for first in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Seven tight ends have scored at least 9 half-PPR points against Cincy, and they've also allowed more than 14 points to a tight end three times in their last four games. Ebron is a mid-level TE1 for Week 10.
Trey Burton (at Tennessee) - Prior to last week's game where he saw a season-low 43% snap share, Burton has received at least five opportunities in every game. With Jack Doyle set to miss tonight's game with a concussion and Mo Alie-Cox banged-up, Burton could be in line for a season-high in both snap share and targets. Burton's opponent, the Tennessee Titans, has allowed six tight ends to record at least 8 half-PPR points against them, and four of those managed more than 11. The kicker is that Tennessee has yet to face a tight end that's inside the top-five at the position in scoring. Burton is low-end TE1 for this matchup.
Austin Hooper (vs. Houston) - Prior to his injury, Hooper had garnered 23 looks in three games. He should be good to go for Week 10, but don't expect that kind of volume for Hooper with Nick Chubb back in the fold. That said, a matchup with a Texans team allowing the 10th-most points to the position makes him one of this week's top streamers. Houston has allowed at least 48 yards to a tight end in half of their games this season, and three of them posted at least 50 yards and a touchdown. Hooper's ceiling is likely capped on a team with the fourth-lowest pass-to-run ratio in the league, but he should have a decent-enough floor.
Ross Dwelley (at New Orleans) - This only in an in-case-you're-extremely-desperate situation, but you can do worse than streaming Dwelley in Week 10. Six tight ends have already scored against the New Orleans Saints this season, and with George Kittle out and Deebo Samuel unlikely to suit up, Dwelley should be in a position to garner a healthy amount of targets. In his last two games, Dwelley has played 56% and 74% of the team's snaps, and he should see a high percentage again this week.
Fade/Sit
Jonnu Smith (vs. Indianapolis) - Through eight games, the Colts have surrendered 290 scoreless yards to tight ends. They have faced Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, Hooper, and Jimmy Graham, amongst others, and yet they haven't wavered. Meanwhile, Jonnu has seen four or fewer targets in each of his last four games, and he hasn't topped 32 yards in any of them. He has scored six times this season, though, as I just mentioned, Indy has yet to allow a tight end to score this season. I'm fading Jonnu this week.
Mark Andrews (at New England) - The Patriots have been almost as stingy as the Colts when it comes to tight ends, as they've ceded 290 yards and 1 score to the position. But when you consider New England's competition, it becomes even more impressive. So far, the Pats have already gone up against Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and George Kittle, and none of those three managed more than 8.5 half-PPR points against them. Meanwhile, Andrews has posted fewer than five fantasy points in five of his eight games this season. Yikes.