Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
[Editor's Note: The Pittsburgh Steelers/Baltimore Ravens game has been postponed until Sunday.]
Quarterback
Simulation Results
| Player | FanDuel Salary | Median FDP | Value | 25th Pct | 75th Pct | 25+ FDP% | Boom/Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | $8,700 | 23.1 | 2.65 | 17.5 | 28.2 | 41.5% | 1.41 |
| Matthew Stafford | $7,200 | 19.5 | 2.71 | 13.4 | 24.9 | 24.6% | 1.36 |
| Lamar Jackson | $8,000 | 18.0 | 2.25 | 12.4 | 23.3 | 20.2% | 0.57 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | $7,700 | 16.9 | 2.19 | 11.7 | 22.4 | 14.7% | 0.54 |
| Andy Dalton | $6,800 | 16.4 | 2.41 | 11.2 | 21.3 | 12.2% | 0.81 |
| Alex Smith | $6,700 | 15.8 | 2.35 | 10.2 | 20.7 | 10.3% | 0.69 |
Observations:
I've given my more detailed breakdown of each of the three games in the Thanksgiving slate DFS helper and also in a special Heat Check podcast with Jim Sannes, so I'll talk more in generalities and theory for the observations.
A lot the strategy on small slates is a balance between finding the best process-based plays (i.e. Deshaun Watson) and applying game theory (e.g. playing the unlikely angle that Watson struggles and it's actually Andy Dalton who is the best quarterback play).
Our projections do like Matthew Stafford quite a lot, but for me, his viability and ceiling depend a ton on whether Kenny Golladay plays. His efficiency splits are pretty jarring with and without Golladay.
Lamar Jackson and Ben Roethlisberger play in the game with the lowest over/under and the largest spread. Then there's Dalton and Alex Smith rounding out the position.
Watson's elite matchup and efficiency against bad defenses makes him the top play of the slate. He finished as the QB1 on the slate 36.6% of the time in the simulated slates. That's definitely not 100%, so again, this plays into the idea of balancing what's most likely to happen and how we can benefit when the unlikely happens.
Behind Watson, Jackson is still my preference despite the over/under and projection. Among the lower-salaried plays, Stafford is the priority if Golladay plays, but if not, Dalton rates out better given offensive expectations and anticipated game flow.
Running Back
Simulation Results
| Player | FanDuel Salary | Median FDP | Value | 25th Pct | 75th Pct | 20+ FDP% | Boom/Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | $8,500 | 14.1 | 1.66 | 8.4 | 19.8 | 24.3% | 0.82 |
| James Conner | $6,700 | 13.5 | 2.02 | 8.0 | 18.7 | 20.3% | 1.50 |
| Antonio Gibson | $6,800 | 13.4 | 1.96 | 7.9 | 18.5 | 19.5% | 1.37 |
| Duke Johnson | $6,100 | 13.1 | 2.15 | 7.6 | 17.8 | 16.2% | 1.76 |
| Gus Edwards | $5,200 | 10.3 | 1.98 | 5.8 | 14.9 | 7.6% | 1.39 |
| J.D. McKissic | $5,600 | 9.1 | 1.63 | 5.1 | 13.0 | 2.8% | 0.77 |
| D'Andre Swift | $7,200 | 7.9 | 1.09 | 3.9 | 11.8 | 1.7% | 0.19 |
| Adrian Peterson | $5,400 | 6.3 | 1.16 | 3.2 | 9.7 | 0.2% | 0.29 |
| Tony Pollard | $5,100 | 5.2 | 1.02 | 2.5 | 7.9 | 0.0% | 0.14 |
| Justice Hill | $4,500 | 5.1 | 1.13 | 2.4 | 7.9 | 0.0% | 0.28 |
| Kerryon Johnson | $4,900 | 4.9 | 1.01 | 2.3 | 7.2 | 0.0% | 0.13 |
| C.J. Prosise | $4,800 | 4.4 | 0.92 | 1.9 | 6.6 | 0.0% | 0.09 |
| Benny Snell Jr. | $5,000 | 3.8 | 0.76 | 1.7 | 5.9 | 0.0% | 0.04 |
| Peyton Barber | $4,700 | 1.9 | 0.39 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 0.0% | 0.00 |
Observations:
Note that D'Andre Swift is currently at a half projection.
After the positive COVID-19 tests for Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins, the slate could revolve around Gus Edwards at a $5,200 salary. Edwards ranks fifth in median FanDuel points among running backs but is a huge source of salary relief overall. He did set season bests with 16 carries and 87 rushing yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 8.
If we don't get Swift, then I think there's more appeal for Ezekiel Elliott as the only real candidate to get a featured role within his offense. There's an opportunity cost by not rostering Elliott if you believe that.
Antonio Gibson has four rushing scores over the past three games, but that could come back to earth soon, and he can be scripted out in favor of J.D. McKissic if the Washington Football Team plays from behind. Even if we lop off 14- and 15-target games in Smith's first two starts, there is reason to believe in McKissic's role. Last week when trailing (just 13 plays), Gibson had 4 carries and a target while McKissic had 2 of each.
James Conner is a high floor play who always rates out better by the algorithm than I seem to view him. He has had just 15, 9, 13, and 13 carries the past four games. Against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 8, Conner ran 15 times for just 47 yards but did score (and had 13 yards on 3 targets). He's shown a lack of a ceiling much of the year. The same goes for Duke Johnson, who is at least in a much better matchup. We're just buying the volume with these two, rather than obvious slate-altering upside.
Kerryon Johnson could be a punt play pivot from Edwards if Swift is out. He out-snapped Adrian Peterson 39-17 last week and had 6 carries and 5 targets. If we assume Houston leads, Johnson would should lead the backfield again.
The clear top trio to me is Elliott, Edwards, and Gibson.
Wide Receiver
Simulation Results
| Player | FanDuel Salary | Median FDP | Value | 25th Pct | 75th Pct | 20+ FDP% | Boom/Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | $7,900 | 14.2 | 1.80 | 8.5 | 19.5 | 22.9% | 1.10 |
| Will Fuller | $7,400 | 13.6 | 1.83 | 6.8 | 20.2 | 25.9% | 1.08 |
| Brandin Cooks | $6,500 | 12.3 | 1.89 | 7.3 | 17.4 | 16.3% | 1.29 |
| Diontae Johnson | $6,800 | 11.8 | 1.73 | 6.9 | 16.0 | 10.5% | 0.90 |
| Marvin Jones | $6,000 | 11.7 | 1.94 | 6.6 | 16.8 | 14.7% | 1.37 |
| Chase Claypool | $6,600 | 11.4 | 1.73 | 5.2 | 17.7 | 18.6% | 0.97 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $6,200 | 10.3 | 1.67 | 5.2 | 14.7 | 8.7% | 0.83 |
| Amari Cooper | $6,900 | 10.0 | 1.45 | 5.5 | 14.5 | 7.4% | 0.54 |
| Michael Gallup | $5,500 | 8.2 | 1.50 | 2.7 | 13.3 | 6.5% | 0.70 |
| Willie Snead | $5,300 | 7.1 | 1.35 | 3.1 | 10.7 | 0.9% | 0.47 |
| Marquise Brown | $5,700 | 7.1 | 1.24 | 1.9 | 12.4 | 6.3% | 0.51 |
| James Washington | $5,000 | 7.1 | 1.41 | 3.1 | 11.2 | 1.2% | 0.60 |
| Kenny Golladay | $7,000 | 7.0 | 1.00 | 2.0 | 12.2 | 4.3% | 0.26 |
| Dez Bryant | $4,800 | 6.5 | 1.35 | 2.7 | 9.8 | 0.4% | 0.47 |
| Steven Sims | $4,600 | 6.1 | 1.32 | 2.3 | 9.4 | 0.0% | 0.48 |
| Marvin Hall | $5,100 | 5.8 | 1.14 | 1.2 | 10.5 | 1.8% | 0.43 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $6,300 | 5.7 | 0.90 | 2.2 | 8.7 | 0.0% | 0.08 |
| Kenny Stills | $4,700 | 4.7 | 1.00 | 1.1 | 8.5 | 0.3% | 0.29 |
| Quintez Cephus | $4,900 | 4.3 | 0.87 | 1.3 | 7.0 | 0.0% | 0.13 |
| Danny Amendola | $5,200 | 4.0 | 0.78 | 1.5 | 6.8 | 0.0% | 0.08 |
| Keke Coutee | $4,500 | 3.9 | 0.88 | 1.4 | 6.4 | 0.0% | 0.10 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | $4,900 | 3.3 | 0.67 | 1.0 | 5.3 | 0.0% | 0.02 |
| Cedrick Wilson | $4,700 | 3.2 | 0.69 | 1.2 | 5.5 | 0.0% | 0.02 |
| Isaiah Wright | $4,500 | 3.2 | 0.70 | 1.0 | 5.3 | 0.0% | 0.04 |
| Cam Sims | $4,800 | 3.1 | 0.65 | 0.9 | 5.3 | 0.0% | 0.02 |
| Devin Duvernay | $4,900 | 2.7 | 0.55 | 0.9 | 4.9 | 0.0% | 0.01 |
Observations:
Note here that Golladay is at a half projection due to his uncertain status. A lot of the slate revolves around his status and what it does to the Detroit Lions' offense (and, in turn, the Houston Texans' offense).
We will have to decide if Terry McLaurin is worthy of his $7,900 salary. He's been a high-floor, moderate-ceiling play on the season, so the odds he drops 25 on us seem unlikely. He did post an 11-target, 7-catch, 90-yard, 1-touchdown day against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 7 while playing with Kyle Allen.
Overall, receiver is fairly clustered from the $6,000 range and up, giving us plenty of options. For that reason, we should let stacking preferences dictate how we operate from there. If I had to build around one of those receivers, it'd be Amari Cooper, who has a 22.5% target share from Dalton and has been efficient (9.0 yards per target) on them.
As for the lower-salaried plays, I'm looking primarily to Willie Snead, who has taken over as the top receiver for the Baltimore Ravens since the bye. Michael Gallup and his 13.7-yard average depth of target from Dalton makes him an extremely intriguing tournament pivot.
Marvin Hall and Cam Sims are viable dart throws but likely won't have the volume to win a tournament unless they score.
Tight End
Simulation Results
| Player | FanDuel Salary | Median FDP | Value | 25th Pct | 75th Pct | 15+ FDP% | Boom/Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | $6,800 | 9.9 | 1.46 | 5.6 | 14.3 | 20.6% | 0.54 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $6,000 | 9.9 | 1.65 | 5.3 | 14.4 | 21.9% | 0.82 |
| Dalton Schultz | $5,300 | 7.2 | 1.36 | 3.4 | 10.9 | 7.1% | 0.49 |
| Eric Ebron | $5,700 | 6.7 | 1.17 | 2.7 | 10.2 | 5.9% | 0.27 |
| Jordan Akins | $5,200 | 6.4 | 1.22 | 2.7 | 9.6 | 4.4% | 0.32 |
| Logan Thomas | $5,000 | 6.2 | 1.25 | 2.7 | 9.9 | 4.8% | 0.41 |
| Darren Fells | $4,900 | 4.3 | 0.88 | 1.8 | 6.8 | 0.5% | 0.11 |
| Pharaoh Brown | $4,500 | 1.6 | 0.36 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 0.0% | 0.00 |
| Blake Bell | $4,000 | 1.1 | 0.28 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 0.0% | 0.00 |
| Jesse James | $4,300 | 1.0 | 0.23 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 0.0% | 0.00 |
Observations:
This tight end pool is better than what we've had on some recent main slates. The top six (from Logan Thomas at $5,000 through Mark Andrews at $6,800) are all playable to some degree.
Our algorithm is currently high on T.J. Hockenson with Golladay and Swift at half of their usual projection. Adjusting for that, Andrews is the lone tight end with the real ability to burn us for not using. He's 20.6% likely to hit 15 FanDuel points, and no other tight end (other than Hockenson at 21.9%) has even an 8.0% chance to hit 15 FanDuel points.
If we're all eyeing up Edwards for value, Andrews could go a bit overlooked, but there's real opportunity cost in being low on him. We saw him get to 96 yards last week (with a touchdown). He's the lone tight end with actual yardage upside. He did have just 32 yards on 6 targets against the Steelers in Week 8, however.
Thomas at $5,000 could get the at-the-bottom-of-the-salary-tier popularity bump for those of us with $5,100 or lower to pick a tight end, but he has now run at least 95.0% of the team's pass route in three games started by Alex Smith.