Say whatever you want about Jerry Jones and his ability to put together a football team, but the on-field product from the 2014 Dallas Cowboys has been undeniably good this season. The team is playing at a high level against tough competition and seems to be deeper and more talented than it has been in years past.
So when Jones says (to Jim Corbett of USA Today) of a player's catching ability "...that's the best hands that we've got, some of the best hands I've ever seen," it's probably wise to listen. After all, he's put together the team that currently sits atop the NFL, so he deserves a bit of respect when evaluating the talent of one of his players.
So who was he talking about when he praised a player for having some of the best hands he had seen in his very, very long football career? (If you clicked on the link above, you already know. Cheater.) You may guess according to Blogging the Boys. This coincides with an increase in targets, and may also mean the end of Jason Witten's relevance.
Riding Off Into the Sunset
Jason Witten has been one of the most consistent tight ends in the NFL over the past decade, and this season is no different. He's actually on pace to have his best per-target efficiency (according to our Net Expected Points data) of his career, but it will come on his lowest catch and target totals since 2006.
Year | Receptions | Rec NEP | Targets | Rec NEP/Target |
---|---|---|---|---|
2006 | 64 | 61.99 | 91 | 0.68 |
2007 | 96 | 89.31 | 141 | 0.63 |
2008 | 81 | 79.34 | 121 | 0.66 |
2009 | 94 | 77.77 | 124 | 0.63 |
2010 | 94 | 88.01 | 128 | 0.69 |
2011 | 79 | 79.66 | 117 | 0.68 |
2012 | 110 | 93.10 | 147 | 0.63 |
2013 | 73 | 77.36 | 111 | 0.70 |
2014 | 23 | 29.11 | 35 | 0.83 |
2014 Projected | 53 | 66.53 | 80 | 0.83 |
Seeing better efficiency on fewer targets isn't a surprise, as a high-volume receiver often sees his per-target average suffer as a result of his heavy usage (which becomes obvious to opposing defenses and often means a quarterback is forcing the ball to the receiver). But combine this decline in volume with a lack of red zone relevance and the rise of a young prospect, and we could be witnessing the beginning of the end for one of the best tight ends in recent history.
For fantasy football purposes, Witten is one more week of Escobar's dominating the red zone looks from being droppable in nearly every shallow-league format, with the lone exception of TE Premium PPR leagues which give extra bonuses per catch for tight ends. Witten will continue to catch a handful of passes per game but is otherwise not a threat to score on a regular basis and may be phased out of the red zone almost entirely as a result of Escobar's arrival.
And with how productive the Dallas offense has been this season, Escobar would be a solid bye-week fill-in at tight end (or a starter in a deeper league) if he continues to see looks and snaps near the end zone. He has the size and hands to have a Joseph Fauria-like touchdown number this season, even if he doesn't jump quite as high as the Lions' tight end.